Flamengo vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Flamengo - Grêmio
Result
1:1
31/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 22
  • Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
mexicoMexicoFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.590.93
Ball Possession
67%33%
Total shots
216
Shots on target
61
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
130
Passes
90% (550/609)79% (240/303)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.590.93
xG on target (xGOT)
1.370.90
Total shots
216
Shots on target
61
Shots off target
84
Blocked Shots
71
Shots inside the Box
114
Shots outside the Box
102
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
130
Touches in opposition box
339
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1116
Passes
90% (550/609)79% (240/303)
Long passes
64% (21/33)40% (26/65)
Passes in final third
79% (150/190)51% (35/68)
Crosses
19% (6/31)20% (1/5)
Expected assists (xA)
1.640.10
Throw-ins
1316
Fouls
1811
Tackles
73% (11/15)63% (12/19)
Duels won
4452
Clearances
1552
Interceptions
127
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
05
xGOT faced
0.901.37
Goals prevented
-0.100.37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 38', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
  • 45', Leo Ortiz 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 53', 1 - 0, de Arrascaeta G. , Pedro (A),
  • 58', Plata G. , Luiz Araujo ,
  • 60', Braithwaite M. , Cristaldo F. ,
  • 60', Olivera C. , Aravena A. ,
  • 64', Dodi 🟨,
  • 65', Edenilson , Pavon C. ,
  • 77', Pedro , Bruno Henrique ,
  • 77', de la Cruz N. , Evertton Araujo ,
  • 78', Carlos Vinicius , Wagner Leonardo ,
  • 78', Dodi , Andre Henrique ,
  • 85', 1 - 1, Tiago Volpi (Pen),
  • 90', Varela G. , Emerson Royal ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Flamengo
73.9%
Draw
18.4%
Grêmio
7.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
69.7% 20.3% 9.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74% 19.1% 9.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
  • Flamengo - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.31
    (1.34)
    5.18
    (4.6)
    11.95
    (9.4)
    4.2%
    (7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Flamengo - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 77.8%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 14).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.
    • Flamengo has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Flamengo is the undeniable favorite.
    • There will not play in Flamengo: Pulgar E. (Foot Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Alex Santana (Yellow Cards) Gustavo Martins (Hamstring Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury) Villasanti M. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Injury) Michael (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Fabian Balbuena (Injury) Freitas dos Santos R. (Injury) Joao Pedro (Broken ankle) Luan Candido (Inactive) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 40:17. (average 2:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 20:4. (average 2:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Flamengo - Grêmio were as follows:
    13.04.2025 Grêmio - Flamengo 0:2
    22.09.2024 Grêmio - Flamengo 3:2
    13.06.2024 Flamengo - Grêmio 2:1
    25.10.2023 Grêmio - Flamengo 3:2
    16.08.2023 Flamengo - Grêmio 1:0
    Latest results of Flamengo
    Latest results of Grêmio
    23.08.2025 Grêmio - Ceará 0:0
    10.08.2025 Grêmio - Sport Recife 0:1
    02.08.2025 Fluminense - Grêmio 1:0
    29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ21145245:103547
    2Cruzeiro22135435:152044
    3Palmeiras20134328:161243
    4Bahia20106428:22636
    5Botafogo RJ20105530:131735
    6Mirassol2098335:201535
    7Sao Paulo2288626:23332
    8Bragantino22931027:32-530
    9Fluminense2084825:28-328
    10Internacional2176825:29-427
    11Ceara2175919:20-126
    12Corinthians2268823:28-526
    13Gremio2167820:26-625
    14Atletico-MG2066820:24-424
    15Vasco21641130:31-122
    16Santos21641120:31-1122
    17Vitoria22410819:32-1322
    18Juventude21631219:41-2221
    19Fortaleza21361220:34-1415
    20Sport Recife20171214:33-1910

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet