Result
1:2
23/07/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 16
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 1.60 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (372/450) | 86% (336/391) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 1.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.30 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (372/450) | 86% (336/391) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (24/52) | 46% (27/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (79/114) | 62% (46/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (5/18) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.96 | 0.54 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (12/22) | 78% (7/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.99 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.70 | -0.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 36', 1 - 0, Cano G. (Pen),
- 36', Felipe Anderson ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 45+4', 1 - 1, Mauricio ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', Fuentes G. 🟨,
- 61', Ignacio ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
- 61', Serna K. ↓, Keno ↑,
- 62', 1 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽,
- 66', Nonato ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 72', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
- 73', Torres F. 🟨,
- 74', Torres F. ↓, Allan ↑,
- 74', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
- 74', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 75', Cano G. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
- 75', Soteldo Y. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
- 80', Mauricio ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 90+8', Allan 🟥,
Chances of winning
Fluminense
33.1% | Draw
32.3% | Palmeiras
34.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+5.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Fluminense - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.87 ↑
(2.6) |
2.96 ↓
(3.14) |
2.73 ↓
(2.8) |
5.3%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Fluminense - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 20%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 18.5% – 61.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 4 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
PH Ganso
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Fuchs
(Yellow Cards)
Murilo
(Thigh Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Rios R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:27. (average 0.8:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.1:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Palmeiras?
Fluminense has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Fluminense?
Palmeiras has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Palmeiras were as follows:
08.12.2024
Palmeiras
-
Fluminense
0:1
24.07.2024
Fluminense
-
Palmeiras
1:0
03.12.2023
Palmeiras
-
Fluminense
1:0
05.08.2023
Fluminense
-
Palmeiras
2:1
27.08.2022
Fluminense
-
Palmeiras
1:1
Latest results of Fluminense
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
