Fluminense vs Palmeiras – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fluminense - Palmeiras
Result
1:2
23/07/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 16
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
israelIsraelSport 4
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.781.60
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
179
Shots on target
15
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
83% (372/450)86% (336/391)
Yellow Cards
12
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.781.60
xG on target (xGOT)
0.991.30
Total shots
179
Shots on target
15
Shots off target
61
Blocked Shots
103
Shots inside the Box
118
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
3314
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1513
Passes
83% (372/450)86% (336/391)
Long passes
46% (24/52)46% (27/59)
Passes in final third
69% (79/114)62% (46/74)
Crosses
28% (5/18)29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.960.54
Throw-ins
2015
Fouls
1315
Tackles
55% (12/22)78% (7/9)
Duels won
6344
Clearances
2331
Interceptions
312
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
20
Goalkeeper Saves
30
xGOT faced
1.300.99
Goals prevented
-0.70-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 36', 1 - 0, Cano G. (Pen),
  • 36', Felipe Anderson , Sosa R. ,
  • 45+4', 1 - 1, Mauricio , Sosa R. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 48', Fuentes G. 🟨,
  • 61', Ignacio , Thiago Santos ,
  • 61', Serna K. , Keno ,
  • 62', 1 - 2, Vitor Roque ,
  • 66', Nonato , PH Ganso ,
  • 72', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
  • 73', Torres F. 🟨,
  • 74', Torres F. , Allan ,
  • 74', Vitor Roque , Flaco Lopez ,
  • 74', Lucas Evangelista , Martinez E. ,
  • 75', Cano G. , Everaldo ,
  • 75', Soteldo Y. , John Kennedy ,
  • 80', Mauricio , Raphael Veiga ,
  • 90+8', Allan 🟥,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fluminense
33.1%
Draw
32.3%
Palmeiras
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.3% 30% 33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39% 32.2% 31.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
  • Fluminense - Palmeiras Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.87
    (2.6)
    2.96
    (3.14)
    2.73
    (2.8)
    5.3%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Fluminense - Palmeiras?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 20%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 40%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 18.5%61.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 3.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury) PH Ganso (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Fuchs (Yellow Cards) Murilo (Thigh Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Figueiredo (Inactive) Rios R. (Inactive)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:27. (average 0.8:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.1:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Palmeiras were as follows:
    08.12.2024 Palmeiras - Fluminense 0:1
    24.07.2024 Fluminense - Palmeiras 1:0
    03.12.2023 Palmeiras - Fluminense 1:0
    05.08.2023 Fluminense - Palmeiras 2:1
    27.08.2022 Fluminense - Palmeiras 1:1
    Latest results of Fluminense
    20.07.2025 Flamengo - Fluminense 1:0
    17.07.2025 Fluminense - Cruzeiro 0:2
    13.07.2025 Mirassol - Fluminense Postponed
    08.07.2025 Fluminense - Chelsea 0:2
    04.07.2025 Fluminense - Al-Hilal 2:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    16.07.2025 Palmeiras - Mirassol 1:1
    13.07.2025 Santos - Palmeiras Postponed
    04.07.2025 Palmeiras - Chelsea 1:2
    23.06.2025 Inter Miami - Palmeiras 2:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ17114231:72437
    2Cruzeiro18114330:111937
    3Palmeiras16103321:14733
    4Bahia1685320:13729
    5Mirassol1677227:161128
    6Bragantino1883721:22-127
    7Botafogo RJ1675418:10826
    8Sao Paulo1867520:20025
    9Fluminense1672718:20-223
    10Atletico-MG1665518:17123
    11Ceara1764717:17022
    12Corinthians1857617:21-422
    13Internacional1756618:22-421
    14Gremio1755716:23-720
    15Vitoria1839616:20-418
    16Vasco1643918:23-515
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1736818:24-615
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1606109:25-166

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet