Result
2:1
25/02/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 4
- Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | TV Globo Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 1.17 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (257/311) | 90% (519/576) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 1.17 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 1.31 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (257/311) | 90% (519/576) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (25/44) | 56% (19/34) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (68/98) | 86% (126/147) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 36% (8/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 1.38 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 38% (5/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.31 | -0.77 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 8', Fabio 🟨,
- 9', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque (Penalty Awarded),
- 13', 2 - 0, Allan Elias ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
- 25', Bernal F. ↓, Otavio ↑,
- 30', Freytes J. 🟨,
- 34', Martinelli 🟨,
- 35', Khellven 🟨,
- 40', 2 - 1, Acosta L. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Acosta L. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
- 59', Lopez J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
- 59', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
- 61', Serna K. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
- 61', Martinelli ↓, Hercules ↑,
- 62', Arias J. 🟨,
- 69', Ignacio 🟨,
- 70', Andreas Pereira ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 70', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 87', Allan Elias ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 87', PH Ganso ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
- 88', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
55.1% | Draw
25.5% | Fluminense
19.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
Palmeiras - Fluminense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.74 ↓
(1.9) |
3.69 ↑
(3.5) |
4.85 ↑
(3.91) |
5.2%
(6.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Fluminense?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Palmeiras (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Palmeiras (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Palmeiras (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Palmeiras will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 4 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.
- Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 1.3:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:3. (average 1.6:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Fluminense?
Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Palmeiras?
Fluminense has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Fluminense were as follows:
22.11.2025
Palmeiras
-
Fluminense
0:0
23.07.2025
Fluminense
-
Palmeiras
1:2
08.12.2024
Palmeiras
-
Fluminense
0:1
24.07.2024
Fluminense
-
Palmeiras
1:0
03.12.2023
Palmeiras
-
Fluminense
1:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Fluminense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
