Result
4:1
14/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 23
- Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Sportsnet+ |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3 |
 France | DAZN France |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | Nova Sports Start |
 Indonesia | Kompas TV, Vidio |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN Extra, ESPN |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | DAZN 3, DAZN / App |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1, Sport TV2 |
 Spain | GolStadium |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 0.84 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (520/574) | 85% (391/459) |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 0.84 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.00 | 0.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (520/574) | 85% (391/459) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (14/29) | 43% (20/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 83% (116/140) | 70% (62/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (4/14) | 36% (4/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 1.16 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 72% (18/25) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.22 | 3.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.22 | -1.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 6', Zinchenko O. ↓, Wijndal O. ↑,
- 7', 1 - 0, Mokio J. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
- 14', 2 - 0, Bounida R. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
- 24', 3 - 0, Godts M. ⚽, Mokio J. (A),
- 45', 3 - 1, Sutalo J. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Ihattaren M. ↓, Adewoye S. ↑,
- 64', Klaassen D. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
- 65', Steur S. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
- 70', Marquez I. ↓, Peterson K. ↑,
- 80', Sierhuis K. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
- 80', Brittijn P. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
- 80', Dolberg K. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
- 80', Mokio J. ↓, Bouwman A. ↑,
- 81', 4 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Weghorst W. (A),
- 85', Duijvestijn L. ↓, Dahlhaus J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ajax
73.1% | Draw
16.7% | Fortuna Sittard
10.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajax's performance.Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-6.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajax that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
Ajax - Fortuna Sittard Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.3 ↓
(1.43) |
5.67 ↑
(4.62) |
9.29 ↑
(6.3) |
5.5%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Ajax - Fortuna Sittard?
Users Predictions:
31 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 24 - 77.4%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 1 - 3.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 62.7% – 92.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ajax will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- In this match, Ajax is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bayram R.
(Knee Injury)
Branderhorst M.
(Inactive)
Dahlhaus J.
(Inactive)
Lonwijk J.
(Inactive)
Sinkgraven D.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Ajax: Berghuis S.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Tunjic L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 47:8. (average 3.1:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 30:4. (average 4.3:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Fortuna Sittard?
Ajax has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortuna Sittard won against Ajax?
Fortuna Sittard has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ajax - Fortuna Sittard were as follows:
06.12.2025
Fortuna Sittard
-
Ajax
1:3
09.02.2025
Fortuna Sittard
-
Ajax
0:2
18.09.2024
Ajax
-
Fortuna Sittard
5:0
10.03.2024
Ajax
-
Fortuna Sittard
2:2
03.09.2023
Fortuna Sittard
-
Ajax
0:0
Latest results of Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV | 27 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 77:34 | 43 | 68 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 60:39 | 21 | 52 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 67:45 | 22 | 49 |
| 4 | Ajax | 27 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 52:34 | 18 | 47 |
| 5 | Twente | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 45:29 | 16 | 44 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 42 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 47:44 | 3 | 40 |
| 8 | Utrecht | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 33:47 | -14 | 38 |
| 10 | Groningen | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 37:37 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | Sittard | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 42:50 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 45:43 | 2 | 32 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 36:52 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 30:46 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 28:46 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Telstar | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 35:45 | -10 | 24 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 28:48 | -20 | 23 |
| 18 | Heracles | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 32:69 | -37 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
