Result
1:0
19/10/2025 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 9
- Referee: Bos A. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 1.07 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (316/416) | 76% (308/407) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 1.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 1.37 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (316/416) | 76% (308/407) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (33/72) | 25% (17/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (57/95) | 58% (66/114) |
| Crosses |
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| 23% (3/13) | 27% (4/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Tackles |
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| 65% (11/17) | 33% (6/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
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| 9 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
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| 1.37 | 1.09 |
| Goals prevented |
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| 1.37 | 0.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, de Regt G. ⚽, Yegoian I. (A),
- 38', Branderhorst M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Peterson K. ↓, Ihattaren M. ↑,
- 46', Sierhuis K. ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
- 55', Mitrovic S. ↓, Sanches Fernandes D. ↑,
- 67', Pinto I. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
- 71', Fosso R. 🟨,
- 71', Wlodarczyk S. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 73', Fosso R. ↓, Mendes H. ↑,
- 80', Dahlhaus J. ↓, Hubner J. ↑,
- 81', Nadje C. ↓, Schouten L. ↑,
- 81', Yegoian I. ↓, Middendorp S. ↑,
- 90+1', Aiko M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Excelsior
51.3% | Draw
26.1% | Fortuna Sittard
22.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excelsior's performance.Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortuna Sittard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-8.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Excelsior that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+8.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortuna Sittard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(2.29) |
3.82 ↑
(3.65) |
4.46 ↑
(2.94) |
1.8%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.9% – 73.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Excelsior might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bastien S.
(Heart Problems)
Bayram R.
(Knee Injury)
Halilovic A.
(Ankle Injury)
Sinkgraven D.
(Knee Injury)
van Ottele S.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Excelsior: Schouten L.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Adewoye S.
(Illness)
Ihattaren M.
(Inactive)
Michut E.
(Inactive)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.8:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.2:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Fortuna Sittard?
Excelsior has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortuna Sittard won against Excelsior?
Fortuna Sittard has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Excelsior - Fortuna Sittard were as follows:
03.03.2024
Fortuna Sittard
-
Excelsior
5:2
26.08.2023
Excelsior
-
Fortuna Sittard
2:2
21.05.2023
Excelsior
-
Fortuna Sittard
3:0
17.09.2022
Fortuna Sittard
-
Excelsior
1:0
Latest results of Excelsior
Latest results of Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25:6 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | PSV | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27:12 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Ajax | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20:14 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:12 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Groningen | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 16:14 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:22 | -8 | 16 |
| 7 | Nijmegen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 27:19 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Twente | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Utrecht | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18:18 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Sittard | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | G.A. Eagles | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15:16 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Volendam | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8:17 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | NAC Breda | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13:19 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:19 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Telstar | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12:19 | -7 | 7 |
| 18 | Heracles | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7:30 | -23 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
