Result
2:1
20/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 24
- Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Indonesia | Kompas TV, Vidio |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
 United-arab-emirates | Dubai Sports 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.93 | 1.24 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (308/395) | 81% (375/465) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.93 | 1.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.66 | 0.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (308/395) | 81% (375/465) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (20/62) | 47% (30/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (62/106) | 71% (108/152) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (2/18) | 27% (4/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (7/14) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.66 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.13 | -0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45+5', 1 - 0, Ihattaren M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Dahlhaus J. ↓, Brittijn P. ↑,
- 46', Limnios D. ↓, Peterson K. ↑,
- 53', Brittijn P. 🟨,
- 58', 2 - 0, Sierhuis K. ⚽, Duijvestijn L. (A),
- 62', Meissen R. 🟨,
- 63', Meissen R. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 75', de Regt G. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
- 78', 2 - 1, Naujoks N. ⚽, van Duinen M. (A),
- 80', Ihattaren M. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
- 86', Janssen S. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
- 86', Hartjes L. ↓, Wlodarczyk S. ↑,
- 89', Michut E. ↓, Adewoye S. ↑,
- 89', Duijvestijn L. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
Chances of winning
Fortuna Sittard
42.5% | Draw
27.3% | Excelsior
30.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.24 ↑
(2.1) |
3.46 ↑
(3.35) |
3.12 ↓
(3.28) |
5.6%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). Excelsior will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.7% – 66.3%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna Sittard (votes: 1 - 20%). Excelsior (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Excelsior (1.64) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Fortuna Sittard (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna Sittard (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Excelsior (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortuna Sittard won 2.
- Fortuna Sittard is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Excelsior's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bayram R.
(Knee Injury)
Branderhorst M.
(Inactive)
Dahlhaus J.
(Inactive)
Lonwijk J.
(Inactive)
Sinkgraven D.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Excelsior: Bronkhorst I.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Tunjic L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fortuna Sittard won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:19. (average 1.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortuna Sittard won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 3.2:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortuna Sittard won against Excelsior?
Fortuna Sittard has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Fortuna Sittard?
Excelsior has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior were as follows:
19.10.2025
Excelsior
-
Fortuna Sittard
1:0
03.03.2024
Fortuna Sittard
-
Excelsior
5:2
26.08.2023
Excelsior
-
Fortuna Sittard
2:2
21.05.2023
Excelsior
-
Fortuna Sittard
3:0
17.09.2022
Fortuna Sittard
-
Excelsior
1:0
Latest results of Fortuna Sittard
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eredivisie Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSV ✔ | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 84:40 | 44 | 74 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62:41 | 21 | 55 |
| 3 | Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72:48 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51:32 | 19 | 53 |
| 5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57:37 | 20 | 51 |
| 6 | AZ Alkmaar | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52:45 | 7 | 48 |
| 7 | Utrecht | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 49:36 | 13 | 44 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 53:50 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | Groningen | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42:37 | 5 | 42 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 35:49 | -14 | 42 |
| 11 | G.A. Eagles | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 50:45 | 5 | 36 |
| 12 | Sittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 44:55 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 40:60 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | FC Volendam | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:50 | -19 | 28 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31:51 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Telstar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 39:52 | -13 | 27 |
| 17 | NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30:51 | -21 | 25 |
| 18 | Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34:77 | -43 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie
Clinched Spots for Teams
PSV is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
