Result
78:85
23/01/2026 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- WNBL Women - Round 15
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | 9Now, ESPN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Field goals attempts |
|---|
| 72 | 61 |
| Field goals made |
|---|
| 29 | 35 |
| Field goals % |
|---|
| 40.28% | 57.38% |
| 2-point field goals attempts |
|---|
| 43 | 41 |
| 2-point field goals made |
|---|
| 21 | 25 |
| 2-point field goals % |
|---|
| 48.84% | 60.98% |
| 3-point field goals attempts |
|---|
| 29 | 20 |
| 3-point field goals made |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| 3-point field goals % |
|---|
| 27.59% | 50% |
| Free throws attempts |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Free throws made |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Free throws % |
|---|
| 75% | 83.3% |
| Offensive rebounds |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Defensive rebounds |
|---|
| 22 | 34 |
| Total rebounds |
|---|
| 34 | 39 |
| Assists |
|---|
| 19 | 23 |
| Blocks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Turnovers |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Steals |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Personal fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
Chances of winning
Geelong Venom
67.4% | Adelaide Lightning
32.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Geelong Venom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Geelong Venom's performance.Adelaide Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adelaide Lightning might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Geelong Venom than the current prediction. (-10.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Geelong Venom that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide Lightning than the current prediction. (+10.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adelaide Lightning could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.38 ↓
(1.47) |
|
2.84 ↑
(2.34) |
7.7%
(10.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 156.75
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)
Preview Facts
- In recent matches, Geelong Venom has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Adelaide's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Adelaide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Geelong Venom will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Geelong Venom won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 414:387. (average 82.8:77.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Geelong Venom won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 251:201. (average 83.7:67).
How many head-to-head matches has Geelong Venom won against Adelaide Lightning?
Geelong Venom has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Adelaide Lightning won against Geelong Venom?
Adelaide Lightning has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Geelong Venom - Adelaide Lightning were as follows:
21.11.2025
Adelaide Lightning
-
Geelong Venom
99:93
25.10.2025
Geelong Venom
-
Adelaide Lightning
110:76
15.02.2025
Adelaide Lightning
-
Geelong Venom
87:70
07.12.2024
Geelong Venom
-
Adelaide Lightning
69:59
16.11.2024
Geelong Venom
-
Adelaide Lightning
72:66
Latest results of Geelong Venom
Latest results of Adelaide Lightning
Draw
Play OffsSemi-finals| 1 | Townsville W (1) | Southside W (4) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Perth Lynx W (2) | Bendigo W (3) | 2 : 0 |
Final| 1 | Townsville W (1) | Perth Lynx W (2) | 1 : 0 |
