Ferroviária vs Grêmio Novorizontino – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

15/09/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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Serie B Superbet - Round 26
Referee: dos Santos F. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.37	3.24
Ball Possession
53%	47%
Total shots
10	22
Shots on target
4	6
Big Chances
1	7
Corner Kicks
6	8
Passes
78% (313/399)	80% (281/353)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37	3.24
xG on target (xGOT)
1.34	2.76
Total shots
10	22
Shots on target
4	6
Shots off target
2	13
Blocked Shots
4	3
Shots inside the Box
8	14
Shots outside the Box
2	8
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
0	2
Big Chances
1	7
Corner Kicks
6	8
Touches in opposition box
14	31
Accurate through passes
0	3
Offsides
0	0
Free Kicks
14	9
Passes
78% (313/399)	80% (281/353)
Long passes
27% (11/41)	55% (28/51)
Passes in final third
56% (42/75)	71% (95/134)
Crosses
19% (5/27)	31% (9/29)
Expected assists (xA)
0.31	2.01
Throw-ins
29	25
Fouls
9	14
Tackles
76% (16/21)	55% (6/11)
Duels won
59	45
Clearances
29	35
Interceptions
11	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	3
xGOT faced
2.76	1.34
Goals prevented
0.76	0.34

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Fabricio Daniel (Pen),
44', 1 - 1, Bruno Jose ⚽, Mayk (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tarik ↓, Alencar ↑,
47', 1 - 2, Nathan Fogaca ⚽, Bruno Jose (A),
54', Edson Lucas ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
55', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
56', Bruno Jose ↓, Tavinho ↑,
63', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
65', Ian Luccas ↓, Vitor Barreto ↑,
69', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Robson ↑,
70', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
76', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
79', Dantas 🟥,
80', Luis Oyama 🟨,
81', Romulo ↓, Patrick ↑,
86', Robson 🟨,
88', Ronaldo 🟨,
90+8', Robson (Pen),

Chances of winning

Ferroviária
36.5%

Draw
31.7%

Grêmio Novorizontino
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

32.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

31.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.69)	3.02 ↑ (2.89)	3.11 ↑ (2.86)	5% (6.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino?

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 15 and 7).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 0.
Recent performances by Ferroviária have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Novorizontino's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Ferroviária: Albano (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Netinho (Inactive) Vitor Mendes (Inactive)
There will not play in Novorizontino: Jean Irmer (Yellow Cards) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)
There are questionable in Ferroviária: Lucas Rodrigues (Inactive)
There are questionable in Novorizontino: Airton (Inactive)
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.8:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Grêmio Novorizontino?

Ferroviária has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Ferroviária?

Grêmio Novorizontino has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:

11.05.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária 2:2

Latest results of Ferroviária

05.09.2025 Coritiba - Ferroviária 4:0 ✺

01.09.2025 Ferroviária - Cuiabá 2:2 ✺

24.08.2025 Ferroviária - Volta Redonda 0:0 ✺

17.08.2025 Atlético Goianiense - Ferroviária 1:3 ✺

08.08.2025 Ferroviária - Amazonas 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino

08.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense 1:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:1 ✺

22.08.2025 Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:0 ✺

14.08.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba 1:2 ✺

09.08.2025 Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:0 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coritiba	32	16	8	8	34:21	13	56
2	Novorizontino	33	14	12	7	36:27	9	54
3	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	42:29	13	53
4	Goias	32	14	10	8	36:29	7	52
5	Chapecoense-SC	32	15	6	11	44:31	13	51
6	Remo	32	13	12	7	39:31	8	51
7	Athletico-PR	32	14	7	11	45:42	3	49
8	Cuiaba	32	13	10	9	38:35	3	49
9	CRB	32	14	5	13	38:33	5	47
10	Atletico GO	32	11	12	9	35:33	2	45
11	Avai	32	11	11	10	40:34	6	44
12	Vila Nova FC	32	11	10	11	32:33	-1	43
13	Operario-PR	32	10	9	13	32:36	-4	39
14	America MG	32	10	7	15	34:39	-5	37
15	Athletic Club	32	10	7	15	37:44	-7	37
16	Ferroviaria	32	8	13	11	36:42	-6	37
17	Volta Redonda	32	8	10	14	22:34	-12	34
18	Botafogo SP	32	8	9	15	27:47	-20	33
19	Amazonas	33	7	11	15	33:48	-15	32
20	Paysandu PA	32	5	11	16	28:40	-12	26

Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )