Grêmio Novorizontino vs Ferroviária – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/05/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte).

Serie B Superbet - Round 7
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.36	0.89
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
16	14
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
8	2
Passes
79% (320/405)	82% (336/409)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.36	0.89
xG on target (xGOT)
1.82	1.07
Total shots
16	14
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked Shots
8	5
Shots inside the Box
10	6
Shots outside the Box
6	8
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
8	2
Touches in opposition box
27	17
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
13	21
Passes
79% (320/405)	82% (336/409)
Long passes
40% (21/52)	48% (29/61)
Passes in final third
67% (73/109)	67% (70/104)
Crosses
23% (5/22)	22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.56	0.57
Throw-ins
18	16
Fouls
21	13
Tackles
70% (7/10)	70% (7/10)
Duels won
49	57
Clearances
9	30
Interceptions
11	14
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
2	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	3
xGOT faced
1.07	1.82
Goals prevented
-0.93	-0.18

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Nathan Fogaca ⚽, Luis Oyama (A),
32', 1 - 1, Thiago Lopes ⚽,
45+2', Eric Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Matheus Frizzo (Pen),
54', 2 - 2, Carlao ⚽, Thiago Lopes (A),
67', Luis Oyama ↓, Marlon ↑,
67', Pablo Dyego ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
67', Leo Natel ↓, Waguininho ↑,
68', Denis Junior 🟨,
70', Albano ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
70', Eric Melo ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
78', Netinho ↓, Alencar ↑,
78', Juninho ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
79', Patrick Brey 🟨,
81', Patrick Brey ↓, Igor Formiga ↑,
81', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
88', Marlon 🟨,
89', Ricardinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
90+7', Ze Mario 🟨,

Chances of winning

Grêmio Novorizontino
55.8%

Draw
27.7%

Ferroviária
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.9%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.4%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio Novorizontino's performance.

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferroviária might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio Novorizontino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferroviária could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.95)	3.4 ↑ (3.33)	5.6 ↑ (3.83)	6.7% (7.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

Preview Facts

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Novorizontino is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Novorizontino: Airton (Inactive) Cesar Martins (Injury) Jean Irmer (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Inactive) Robson (Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)
There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Thayllon (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Ferroviária?

Grêmio Novorizontino has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Grêmio Novorizontino?

Ferroviária has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária were as follows:

Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino

04.05.2025 Atlético Goianiense - Grêmio Novorizontino 1:0 ✺

30.04.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians 0:1 ✺

24.04.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense 2:1 ✺

21.04.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma 1:1 ✺

16.04.2025 Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Ferroviária

02.05.2025 Ferroviária - Coritiba 2:1 ✺

27.04.2025 Cuiabá - Ferroviária 1:0 ✺

22.04.2025 Volta Redonda - Ferroviária 0:0 ✺

17.04.2025 Ferroviária - Atlético Goianiense 2:0 ✺

12.04.2025 Amazonas - Ferroviária 0:0 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Goias	24	13	5	6	31:23	8	44
2	Coritiba	24	12	7	5	24:16	8	43
3	Chapecoense-SC	24	12	5	7	36:22	14	41
4	Criciuma	24	11	6	7	31:21	10	39
5	Novorizontino	24	9	9	6	26:23	3	36
6	Remo	24	8	11	5	24:21	3	35
7	CRB	24	10	4	10	26:22	4	34
8	Vila Nova FC	24	10	4	10	24:24	0	34
9	Cuiaba	24	9	7	8	29:29	0	34
10	Operario-PR	24	9	6	9	26:23	3	33
11	Athletico-PR	24	9	6	9	31:33	-2	33
12	Avai	23	8	9	6	30:23	7	33
13	Ferroviaria	24	7	10	7	27:26	1	31
14	Atletico GO	24	7	10	7	26:26	0	31
15	Athletic Club	24	8	4	12	26:33	-7	28
16	Botafogo SP	24	7	7	10	20:33	-13	28
17	Amazonas	24	5	9	10	25:34	-9	24
18	Volta Redonda	24	5	8	11	14:26	-12	23
19	America MG	23	6	4	13	23:32	-9	22
20	Paysandu PA	24	4	9	11	20:29	-9	21

Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )