Result
1:2
15/09/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 26
- Referee: dos Santos F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 3.24 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (313/399) | 80% (281/353) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 3.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 2.76 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 13 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (313/399) | 80% (281/353) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (11/41) | 55% (28/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 56% (42/75) | 71% (95/134) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/27) | 31% (9/29) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 2.01 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 29 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (16/21) | 55% (6/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.76 | 1.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.76 | 0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', 1 - 0, Fabricio Daniel (Pen),
- 44', 1 - 1, Bruno Jose ⚽, Mayk (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Tarik ↓, Alencar ↑,
- 47', 1 - 2, Nathan Fogaca ⚽, Bruno Jose (A),
- 54', Edson Lucas ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
- 55', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
- 56', Bruno Jose ↓, Tavinho ↑,
- 63', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
- 65', Ian Luccas ↓, Vitor Barreto ↑,
- 69', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Robson ↑,
- 70', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
- 76', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
- 79', Dantas 🟥,
- 80', Luis Oyama 🟨,
- 81', Romulo ↓, Patrick ↑,
- 86', Robson 🟨,
- 88', Ronaldo 🟨,
- 90+8', Robson (Pen),
Chances of winning
Ferroviária
36.5% | Draw
31.7% | Grêmio Novorizontino
31.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↓
(2.69) |
3.02 ↑
(2.89) |
3.11 ↑
(2.86) |
5%
(6.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Ferroviária (6.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.25 - Ferroviária (5.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Ferroviária (5.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Ferroviária (3.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Ferroviária (2.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Ferroviária (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Ferroviária (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Ferroviária (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Ferroviária (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0, 1st Half - Ferroviária (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 10 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 15 and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 0.
- Recent performances by Ferroviária have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Novorizontino's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Ferroviária: Albano
(Inactive)
Denilson
(Inactive)
Netinho
(Inactive)
Vitor Mendes
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Jean Irmer
(Yellow Cards)
Marlon
(Inactive)
Renato Palm
(Knee Injury)
Vitinho
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Ferroviária: Lucas Rodrigues
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Novorizontino: Airton
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.8:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
Ferroviária has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Ferroviária?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:
11.05.2025
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Ferroviária
2:2
Latest results of Ferroviária
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vila Nova FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:8 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Fortaleza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 11 |
| 3 | Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventude | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Ceara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Nautico | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Botafogo SP | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Avai | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Novorizontino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Atletico GO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Ponte Preta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Goias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Cuiaba | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | Londrina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | CRB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | America MG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
