Result
1:2
08/03/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Play Offs - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | HBO Max, TV Record |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 57% (165/290) | 48% (102/213) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 1.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 25 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 57% (165/290) | 48% (102/213) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (26/88) | 23% (20/88) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 41% (55/133) | 38% (35/92) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 30% (3/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.22 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 32 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 25 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (15/19) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 72 | 70 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.34 | 1.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.66 | 0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Murilo ⚽,
- 14', Lopez J. 🟨,
- 26', 1 - 1, Matheus Bianqui ⚽,
- 28', Gomez G. 🟨,
- 45+4', Enderson Moreira 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 60', Romulo 🟨,
- 62', 1 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽, Arias J. (A),
- 65', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 77', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,
- 77', Ivan Alvarino ↓, Kauan Alemao ↑,
- 79', Arias J. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 79', Andreas Pereira ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
- 81', Romulo ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
- 81', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Tavinho ↑,
- 84', Lopez J. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 84', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 88', Luis Oyama ↓, Juninho ↑,
Chances of winning
Grêmio Novorizontino
21.1% | Draw
29.7% | Palmeiras
49.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.3 ↑
(3.91) |
3.11 ↑
(2.91) |
1.91 ↓
(2.05) |
7.9%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Novorizontino (4.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2.
- Novorizontino has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Palmeiras is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Helio Borges
(Inactive)
Marlon
(Inactive)
Maykon Jesus
(Inactive)
Renato Palm
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Injury)
Martinez E.
(Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:26. (average 0.8:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.2:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Palmeiras?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras were as follows:
04.03.2026
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:0
20.01.2026
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Palmeiras
4:0
25.01.2025
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:2
28.03.2024
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:0
21.01.2024
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Palmeiras
1:1
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Latest results of Palmeiras
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | 1 : 2, 0 : 1 |
