Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte).

Serie A Betano - Round 20
Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.24	1.06
Ball Possession
63%	37%
Total shots
10	8
Shots on target
3	4
Big Chances
0	3
Corner Kicks
4	4
Passes
87% (432/495)	80% (230/287)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Red Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.24	1.06
xG on target (xGOT)
0.45	2.39
Total shots
10	8
Shots on target
3	4
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked Shots
2	1
Shots inside the Box
4	4
Shots outside the Box
6	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
0	3
Corner Kicks
4	4
Touches in opposition box
18	10
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
12	18
Passes
87% (432/495)	80% (230/287)
Long passes
61% (20/33)	41% (16/39)
Passes in final third
83% (153/185)	64% (30/47)
Crosses
23% (5/22)	10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.60	1.04
Throw-ins
19	13
Fouls
19	12
Tackles
61% (11/18)	50% (13/26)
Duels won
49	55
Clearances
10	30
Interceptions
9	13
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	2
xGOT faced
2.39	0.45
Goals prevented
-0.61	-0.55

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', Reinier 🟨,
28', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Hulk (A),
45', Villasanti M. ↓, Dodi ↑,
45', 1 - 1, Edenilson ⚽, Marlon (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 1 - 2, Fabian Balbuena ⚽,
60', Reinier ↓, Rony ↑,
65', Carlos Vinicius 🟥,
68', Natanael ↓, Biel ↑,
73', Cuellar G. ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
73', Alysson ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
76', Cuello 🟥,
83', Alexsander ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
83', Roman I. ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
84', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
84', Edenilson ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
85', Hulk 🟨,
90', 1 - 3, Aravena A. ⚽, Andre Henrique (A),
90+3', Andre Henrique 🟨,
90+3', Alonso J. 🟥,
90+3', Dodi 🟥,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Atlético Mineiro
55.1%

Draw
26.4%

Grêmio
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

26.9%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26.4%

20.5%

Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)	3.59 ↑ (3.5)	5.09 ↑ (4.5)	5.6% (6.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 40% – 93.4%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.
Atlético MG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Grêmio has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Fausto Vera (Muscle Injury) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Muscle Injury) Braithwaite M. (Yellow Cards) Gustavo Martins (Hamstring Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury)
There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson (Injury) Joao Pedro (Broken ankle) Luan Candido (Inactive) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:36. (average 1.4:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.8:1.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Grêmio?

Atlético Mineiro has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Atlético Mineiro?

Grêmio has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio were as follows:

29.03.2025 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:1

09.10.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 2:1

01.09.2024 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:3

26.11.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 3:0

22.07.2023 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 1:0

Latest results of Atlético Mineiro

14.08.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Godoy Cruz 2:1 ✺

10.08.2025 Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro 1:1 ✺

06.08.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo 1:1 ✺

03.08.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino 2:1 ✺

31.07.2025 Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Grêmio

10.08.2025 Grêmio - Sport Recife 0:1 ✺

02.08.2025 Fluminense - Grêmio 1:0 ✺

29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1 ✺

26.07.2025 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0 ✺

23.07.2025 Grêmio - Alianza Lima 1:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie A Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palmeiras	30	20	5	5	55:26	29	65
2	Flamengo RJ	30	19	7	4	59:16	43	64
3	Cruzeiro	31	17	9	5	45:22	23	60
4	Mirassol	31	15	11	5	52:31	21	56
5	Bahia	31	15	7	9	42:35	7	52
6	Botafogo RJ	31	13	9	9	41:28	13	48
7	Fluminense	31	14	5	12	37:37	0	47
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	8	11	35:33	2	44
9	Vasco	31	12	6	13	49:43	6	42
10	Corinthians	31	11	9	11	34:35	-1	42
11	Gremio	31	10	9	12	33:40	-7	39
12	Ceara	31	10	8	13	29:29	0	38
13	Atletico-MG	30	9	10	11	27:32	-5	37
14	Bragantino	31	10	6	15	35:49	-14	36
15	Internacional	31	9	9	13	35:43	-8	36
16	Santos	30	8	9	13	31:43	-12	33
17	Vitoria	31	7	10	14	28:47	-19	31
18	Fortaleza	30	7	7	16	28:45	-17	28
19	Juventude	31	7	5	19	24:58	-34	26
20	Sport Recife	30	2	11	17	22:49	-27	17

      Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
      Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet