Result
1:3
17/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 20
- Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (432/495) | 80% (230/287) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 2.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (432/495) | 80% (230/287) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (20/33) | 41% (16/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 83% (153/185) | 64% (30/47) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.04 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (11/18) | 50% (13/26) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.39 | 0.45 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.61 | -0.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 19', Reinier 🟨,
- 28', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
- 38', 1 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Hulk (A),
- 45', Villasanti M. ↓, Dodi ↑,
- 45', 1 - 1, Edenilson ⚽, Marlon (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 58', 1 - 2, Fabian Balbuena ⚽,
- 60', Reinier ↓, Rony ↑,
- 65', Carlos Vinicius 🟥,
- 68', Natanael ↓, Biel ↑,
- 73', Cuellar G. ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
- 73', Alysson ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
- 76', Cuello 🟥,
- 83', Alexsander ↓, Igor Gomes ↑,
- 83', Roman I. ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
- 84', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 84', Edenilson ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 85', Hulk 🟨,
- 90', 1 - 3, Aravena A. ⚽, Andre Henrique (A),
- 90+3', Andre Henrique 🟨,
- 90+3', Alonso J. 🟥,
- 90+3', Dodi 🟥,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
55.1% | Draw
26.4% | Grêmio
18.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2%)
Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.72 ↓
(1.8) |
3.59 ↑
(3.5) |
5.09 ↑
(4.5) |
5.6%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 40% – 93.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.
- Atlético MG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Grêmio has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu
(Knee Injury)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Fausto Vera
(Muscle Injury)
Renzo Saravia
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique
(Muscle Injury)
Braithwaite M.
(Yellow Cards)
Gustavo Martins
(Hamstring Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson
(Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Broken ankle)
Luan Candido
(Inactive)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:36. (average 1.4:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.8:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Grêmio?
Atlético Mineiro has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Atlético Mineiro?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio were as follows:
29.03.2025
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:1
09.10.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
2:1
01.09.2024
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:3
26.11.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
3:0
22.07.2023
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 51:23 | 28 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 27 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 53:13 | 40 | 58 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 41:21 | 20 | 53 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 47:30 | 17 | 49 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:26 | 11 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 34:30 | 4 | 43 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 34:33 | 1 | 38 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 31:28 | 3 | 38 |
| 9 | Vasco | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 44:41 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Ceara | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 27:25 | 2 | 35 |
| 12 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 33 |
| 13 | Gremio | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 33 |
| 14 | Atletico-MG | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 26:31 | -5 | 33 |
| 15 | Internacional | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33:41 | -8 | 32 |
| 16 | Santos | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 28:39 | -11 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24:42 | -18 | 25 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 26:43 | -17 | 24 |
| 19 | Juventude | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 22:52 | -30 | 23 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 21:42 | -21 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
