Result
2:1
29/03/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 1
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 2.28 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (195/264) | 84% (470/557) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 2.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 3.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 15 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 33 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (195/264) | 84% (470/557) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (18/48) | 53% (32/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (49/89) | 77% (127/164) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 13% (3/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 2.28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 54 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 43 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.01 | 1.42 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 2.01 | -0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 33', 1 - 0, Arezo M. ⚽,
- 39', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
- 45', 2 - 0, Edenilson ⚽,
- 45+4', Jemerson 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Igor Serrote ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
- 61', Lucas Esteves ↓, Viery ↑,
- 65', Gabriel Menino ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
- 73', Alonso J. ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
- 73', Hulk ↓, Rubens ↑,
- 75', 2 - 1, Rony ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
- 77', Jemerson ↓, Rodrigo Ely ↑,
- 77', Amuzu F. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 77', Arezo M. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 85', Natanael ↓, Bernard ↑,
- 90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 90+6', Olivera C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
37.7% | Draw
30.7% | Atlético Mineiro
31.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.49 ↑
(2.17) |
3.12 ↓
(3.28) |
3.02 ↓
(3.38) |
5.3%
(6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 9.6% – 70.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 2.
- At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.
- In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Walter Kannemann
(Hip Injury)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 11 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 36:26 (average 1.8:1.3).
- Including matches at home between the teams Grêmio won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17:10 (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Atlético Mineiro?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Grêmio?
Atlético Mineiro has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
09.10.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
2:1
01.09.2024
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:3
26.11.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
3:0
22.07.2023
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cruzeiro | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27:9 | 18 | 34 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 29:6 | 23 | 33 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Bragantino | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 27 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:7 | 10 | 25 |
| 6 | Bahia | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Mirassol | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 20 |
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Internacional | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 | Ceara | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 14:15 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13:17 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Santos | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13:19 | -6 | 14 |
| 18 | Juventude | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 11 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13:20 | -7 | 11 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 7:23 | -16 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
