Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio
Result
1:3
17/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 20
  • Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
israelIsraelSport 1
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.06
Ball Possession
63%37%
Total shots
108
Shots on target
34
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
44
Passes
87% (432/495)80% (230/287)
Yellow Cards
22
Red Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.06
xG on target (xGOT)
0.452.39
Total shots
108
Shots on target
34
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
44
Shots outside the Box
64
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
44
Touches in opposition box
1810
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1218
Passes
87% (432/495)80% (230/287)
Long passes
61% (20/33)41% (16/39)
Passes in final third
83% (153/185)64% (30/47)
Crosses
23% (5/22)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.601.04
Throw-ins
1913
Fouls
1912
Tackles
61% (11/18)50% (13/26)
Duels won
4955
Clearances
1030
Interceptions
913
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
2.390.45
Goals prevented
-0.61-0.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 19', Reinier 🟨,
  • 28', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
  • 38', 1 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa , Hulk (A),
  • 45', Villasanti M. , Dodi ,
  • 45', 1 - 1, Edenilson , Marlon (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 58', 1 - 2, Fabian Balbuena ,
  • 60', Reinier , Rony ,
  • 65', Carlos Vinicius 🟥,
  • 68', Natanael , Biel ,
  • 73', Cuellar G. , Freitas dos Santos R. ,
  • 73', Alysson , Alex Santana ,
  • 76', Cuello 🟥,
  • 83', Alexsander , Igor Gomes ,
  • 83', Roman I. , Junior Santos ,
  • 84', Olivera C. , Aravena A. ,
  • 84', Edenilson , Andre Henrique ,
  • 85', Hulk 🟨,
  • 90', 1 - 3, Aravena A. , Andre Henrique (A),
  • 90+3', Andre Henrique 🟨,
  • 90+3', Alonso J. 🟥,
  • 90+3', Dodi 🟥,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Atlético Mineiro
55.1%
Draw
26.4%
Grêmio
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.2% 26.9% 20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2% 26.4% 20.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2%)
  • Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.72
    (1.8)
    3.59
    (3.5)
    5.09
    (4.5)
    5.6%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 40%93.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.
    • Atlético MG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Grêmio has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Fausto Vera (Muscle Injury) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Muscle Injury) Braithwaite M. (Yellow Cards) Gustavo Martins (Hamstring Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson (Injury) Joao Pedro (Broken ankle) Luan Candido (Inactive) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:36. (average 1.4:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.8:1.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio were as follows:
    29.03.2025 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:1
    09.10.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 2:1
    01.09.2024 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:3
    26.11.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 3:0
    22.07.2023 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 1:0
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Latest results of Grêmio
    10.08.2025 Grêmio - Sport Recife 0:1
    02.08.2025 Fluminense - Grêmio 1:0
    29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1
    26.07.2025 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0
    24.07.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Postponed
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ21145245:103547
    2Cruzeiro22135435:152044
    3Palmeiras20134328:161243
    4Bahia20106428:22636
    5Botafogo RJ20105530:131735
    6Mirassol2098335:201535
    7Sao Paulo2288626:23332
    8Bragantino22931027:32-530
    9Fluminense2084825:28-328
    10Internacional2176825:29-427
    11Ceara2175919:20-126
    12Corinthians2268823:28-526
    13Gremio2167820:26-625
    14Atletico-MG2066820:24-424
    15Vasco21641130:31-122
    16Santos21641120:31-1122
    17Vitoria22410819:32-1322
    18Juventude21631219:41-2221
    19Fortaleza21361220:34-1415
    20Sport Recife20171214:33-1910

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet