Result
2:1
25/02/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 4
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 Peru | Liga 1 Max |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.41 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (421/476) | 74% (209/282) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.41 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (421/476) | 74% (209/282) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (30/48) | 32% (15/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (151/189) | 63% (58/92) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/26) | 20% (1/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.22 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (11/20) | 58% (11/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.23 | 1.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.77 | -0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 7', Nardoni J. 🟨,
- 17', Natanael 🟥,
- 40', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Gustavo Scarpa ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
- 51', 1 - 0, Noriega E. ⚽, Marlon (A),
- 55', Gabriel Mec 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 1, Victor Hugo ⚽, Everson (A),
- 66', 2 - 1, Marlon ⚽, Noriega E. (A),
- 68', Hulk ↓, Reinier ↑,
- 69', Cuello ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 69', Gabriel Mec ↓, Dodi ↑,
- 80', Enamorado J. ↓, Roger ↑,
- 80', Pavon C. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
- 80', Victor Hugo ↓, Minda A. ↑,
- 84', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
- 86', Nardoni J. ↓, Jefinho ↑,
- 89', Vitor Hugo ↓, Cassierra M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
43% | Draw
28.5% | Atlético Mineiro
28.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)The ML Model estimate for Grêmio aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.22 ↓
(2.23) |
3.32 ↓
(3.43) |
3.3 ↑
(3.07) |
5.5%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 44.1% – 94.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
- Grêmio is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Atlético MG's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Grêmio could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Perez L.
(Inactive)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
Wagner Leonardo
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander
(Injury)
Lyanco
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Monsalve M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:27. (average 1.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Atlético Mineiro?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Grêmio?
Atlético Mineiro has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
17.08.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
1:3
29.03.2025
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:1
09.10.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
2:1
01.09.2024
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:3
26.11.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
3:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Bahia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gremio | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Vasco | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Internacional | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Santos | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Chapecoense-SC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | Remo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | -4 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
