Result
2:1
29/03/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 1
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.83 | 2.28 |
Ball Possession |
---|
32% | 68% |
Total shots |
---|
12 | 22 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 7 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 7 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
74% (195/264) | 84% (470/557) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
4 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.83 | 2.28 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.42 | 3.01 |
Total shots |
---|
12 | 22 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 7 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 5 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
3 | 10 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
4 | 15 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
8 | 7 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 7 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 11 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
15 | 33 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 4 |
Free Kicks |
---|
5 | 19 |
Passes |
---|
74% (195/264) | 84% (470/557) |
Long passes |
---|
38% (18/48) | 53% (32/60) |
Passes in final third |
---|
55% (49/89) | 77% (127/164) |
Crosses |
---|
36% (4/11) | 13% (3/24) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.17 | 2.28 |
Fouls |
---|
19 | 5 |
Tackles |
---|
63% (10/16) | 67% (10/15) |
Duels won |
---|
45 | 54 |
Clearances Total |
---|
43 | 23 |
Interceptions |
---|
9 | 10 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
1 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
6 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
3.01 | 1.42 |
Goals prevented |
---|
2.01 | -0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 33', 1 - 0, Arezo M. ⚽,
- 39', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
- 45', 2 - 0, Edenilson ⚽,
- 45+4', Jemerson 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Igor Serrote ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
- 61', Lucas Esteves ↓, Viery ↑,
- 65', Gabriel Menino ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
- 73', Alonso J. ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
- 73', Hulk ↓, Rubens ↑,
- 75', 2 - 1, Rony ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
- 77', Jemerson ↓, Rodrigo Ely ↑,
- 77', Amuzu F. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 77', Arezo M. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 85', Natanael ↓, Bernard ↑,
- 90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 90+6', Olivera C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio 37.7% | Draw 30.7% | Atlético Mineiro 31.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.49 ↑ (2.17) |
3.12 ↓ (3.28) |
3.02 ↓ (3.38) |
5.3% (6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 9.6% – 70.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 2.
- At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.
- In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Walter Kannemann
(Hip Injury)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 11 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 36:26 (average 1.8:1.3).
- Including matches at home between the teams Grêmio won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17:10 (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Atlético Mineiro?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Grêmio?
Atlético Mineiro has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
09.10.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
2:1
01.09.2024
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:3
26.11.2023
Atlético Mineiro
-
Grêmio
3:0
22.07.2023
Grêmio
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Cruzeiro | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27:9 | 18 | 34 |
2 | Flamengo RJ | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 29:6 | 23 | 33 |
3 | Palmeiras | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 29 |
4 | Bragantino | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 27 |
5 | Botafogo RJ | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:7 | 10 | 25 |
6 | Bahia | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Mirassol | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
8 | Fluminense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 16:17 | -1 | 20 |
9 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 20 |
10 | Internacional | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 20 |
11 | Corinthians | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Sao Paulo | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 19 |
13 | Ceara | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 14:15 | -1 | 18 |
14 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 |
15 | Vitoria | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13:17 | -4 | 16 |
16 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:19 | -4 | 14 |
17 | Santos | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13:19 | -6 | 14 |
18 | Juventude | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 11 |
19 | Fortaleza | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13:20 | -7 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 7:23 | -16 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet