Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio
Result
1:3
17/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 20
  • Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
israelIsraelSport 1
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.06
Ball Possession
63%37%
Total shots
108
Shots on target
34
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
44
Passes
87% (432/495)80% (230/287)
Yellow Cards
22
Red Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.241.06
xG on target (xGOT)
0.452.39
Total shots
108
Shots on target
34
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
44
Shots outside the Box
64
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
44
Touches in opposition box
1810
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1218
Passes
87% (432/495)80% (230/287)
Long passes
61% (20/33)41% (16/39)
Passes in final third
83% (153/185)64% (30/47)
Crosses
23% (5/22)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.601.04
Throw-ins
1913
Fouls
1912
Tackles
61% (11/18)50% (13/26)
Duels won
4955
Clearances
1030
Interceptions
913
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
2.390.45
Goals prevented
-0.61-0.55

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 19', Reinier 🟨,
  • 28', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
  • 38', 1 - 0, Gustavo Scarpa , Hulk (A),
  • 45', Villasanti M. , Dodi ,
  • 45', 1 - 1, Edenilson , Marlon (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 58', 1 - 2, Fabian Balbuena ,
  • 60', Reinier , Rony ,
  • 65', Carlos Vinicius 🟥,
  • 68', Natanael , Biel ,
  • 73', Cuellar G. , Freitas dos Santos R. ,
  • 73', Alysson , Alex Santana ,
  • 76', Cuello 🟥,
  • 83', Alexsander , Igor Gomes ,
  • 83', Roman I. , Junior Santos ,
  • 84', Olivera C. , Aravena A. ,
  • 84', Edenilson , Andre Henrique ,
  • 85', Hulk 🟨,
  • 90', 1 - 3, Aravena A. , Andre Henrique (A),
  • 90+3', Andre Henrique 🟨,
  • 90+3', Alonso J. 🟥,
  • 90+3', Dodi 🟥,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Atlético Mineiro
55.1%
Draw
26.4%
Grêmio
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.2% 26.9% 20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2% 26.4% 20.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2%)
  • Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.72
    (1.8)
    3.59
    (3.5)
    5.09
    (4.5)
    5.6%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 40%93.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 3.
    • Atlético MG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Grêmio has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Atlético MG is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Fausto Vera (Muscle Injury) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Andre Henrique (Muscle Injury) Braithwaite M. (Yellow Cards) Gustavo Martins (Hamstring Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson (Injury) Joao Pedro (Broken ankle) Luan Candido (Inactive) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:36. (average 1.4:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.8:1.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio were as follows:
    29.03.2025 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:1
    09.10.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 2:1
    01.09.2024 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:3
    26.11.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 3:0
    22.07.2023 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 1:0
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Latest results of Grêmio
    10.08.2025 Grêmio - Sport Recife 0:1
    02.08.2025 Fluminense - Grêmio 1:0
    29.07.2025 Grêmio - Fortaleza 2:1
    26.07.2025 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0
    23.07.2025 Grêmio - Alianza Lima 1:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ23156248:113751
    2Cruzeiro24155439:172250
    3Palmeiras22154336:181849
    4Mirassol23119341:231842
    5Botafogo RJ24117635:181740
    6Bahia23107631:28337
    7Sao Paulo2498727:24335
    8Fluminense2294926:29-331
    9Bragantino24941129:35-631
    10Corinthians2478924:29-529
    11Gremio2478924:30-629
    12Ceara2377922:23-128
    13Vasco24761136:35127
    14Internacional23761028:36-827
    15Santos23751122:32-1026
    16Atletico-MG2267921:26-525
    17Vitoria244101019:35-1622
    18Juventude23631419:45-2621
    19Fortaleza23461323:38-1518
    20Sport Recife22281216:34-1814

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet