Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:1
29/03/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 1
  • Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.832.28
Ball Possession
32%68%
Total shots
1222
Shots on target
57
Big Chances
17
Corner Kicks
111
Passes
74% (195/264)84% (470/557)
Yellow Cards
40
Expected Goals (xG)
0.832.28
xG on target (xGOT)
1.423.01
Total shots
1222
Shots on target
57
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
310
Shots inside the Box
415
Shots outside the Box
87
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
17
Corner Kicks
111
Touches in opposition box
1533
Offsides
14
Free Kicks
519
Passes
74% (195/264)84% (470/557)
Long passes
38% (18/48)53% (32/60)
Passes in final third
55% (49/89)77% (127/164)
Crosses
36% (4/11)13% (3/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.172.28
Fouls
195
Tackles
63% (10/16)67% (10/15)
Duels won
4554
Clearances Total
4323
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
63
xGOT faced
3.011.42
Goals prevented
2.01-0.58

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 33', 1 - 0, Arezo M. ,
  • 39', Wagner Leonardo 🟨,
  • 45', 2 - 0, Edenilson ,
  • 45+4', Jemerson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Igor Serrote , Joao Lucas ,
  • 61', Lucas Esteves , Viery ,
  • 65', Gabriel Menino , Junior Santos ,
  • 73', Alonso J. , Joao Marcelo ,
  • 73', Hulk , Rubens ,
  • 75', 2 - 1, Rony , Gustavo Scarpa (A),
  • 77', Jemerson , Rodrigo Ely ,
  • 77', Amuzu F. , Andre Henrique ,
  • 77', Arezo M. , Pavon C. ,
  • 85', Natanael , Bernard ,
  • 90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
  • 90+6', Olivera C. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Grêmio
37.7%
Draw
30.7%
Atlético Mineiro
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.5% 28.7% 27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1% 29.8% 26.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.
  • Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
  • Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.49
    (2.17)
    3.12
    (3.28)
    3.02
    (3.38)
    5.3%
    (6.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 9.6%70.4%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 2.
    • At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.
    • In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Walter Kannemann (Hip Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 11 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 36:26 (average 1.8:1.3).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Grêmio won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 17:10 (average 1.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    09.10.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 2:1
    01.09.2024 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 2:3
    26.11.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 3:0
    22.07.2023 Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro 1:0
    Latest results of Grêmio
    12.03.2025 Athletic Club - Grêmio 3:4
    08.03.2025 Grêmio - Internacional RS 0:2
    01.03.2025 Juventude - Grêmio 2:2
    22.02.2025 Grêmio - Juventude 2:1
    19.02.2025 São Raimundo PR - Grêmio 1:2
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruzeiro16104227:91834
    2Flamengo RJ15103229:62333
    3Palmeiras1492318:12629
    4Bragantino1683519:17227
    5Botafogo RJ1474317:71025
    6Bahia1474317:13425
    7Mirassol1466223:131024
    8Fluminense1462616:17-120
    9Atletico-MG1455416:15120
    10Internacional1555516:19-320
    11Corinthians1655615:19-420
    12Sao Paulo1647515:18-319
    13Ceara1553714:15-118
    14Gremio1445514:20-617
    15Vitoria1637613:17-416
    16Vasco1442815:19-414
    17Santos1542913:19-614
    18Juventude1432910:29-1911
    19Fortaleza1425713:20-711
    20Sport Recife1404107:23-164

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