Result
4:0
19/10/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 29
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.77 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (473/526) | 89% (312/349) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.77 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 0.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (473/526) | 89% (312/349) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (22/38) | 38% (10/26) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 82% (133/163) | 86% (93/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (6/19) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.42 | 0.89 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (16/22) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.06 | 2.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | -1.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 4', 1 - 0, Iago Borduchi ⚽, Ademir (A),
- 10', 2 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽, Michel Araujo (A),
- 18', Marcos Rocha ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Aravena A. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 57', 3 - 0, David Duarte ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
- 63', Pavon C. ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
- 63', Cuellar G. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 64', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
- 68', Tiago ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 68', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 68', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
- 74', Michel Araujo ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 79', Noriega E. ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
- 80', Iago Borduchi 🟨,
- 82', Willian Jose ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
- 85', Ruan Pablo 🟨,
- 90+3', 4 - 0, Rodrigo ⚽, Kayky (A),
Chances of winning
Bahia
67.5% | Draw
20.8% | Grêmio
11.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bahia's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-10.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bahia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+7.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Bahia - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.61 ↓
(1.79) |
5.6 ↑
(3.53) |
10.27 ↑
(4.39) |
-10.4%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Bahia - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 29.6% – 90.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Bahia is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Hamstring Injury)
Everton Ribeiro
(Inactive)
Joao Paulo
(Knee Injury)
Luciano Juba
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Dodi
(Yellow Cards)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Bahia: Erick
(Hamstring Injury)
Ramos S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Alysson
(Injury)
Arthur Melo
(Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Shoulder Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
Tiago Volpi
(Muscle Injury)
Willian
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 0.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Grêmio?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Bahia?
Grêmio has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Grêmio were as follows:
25.05.2025
Grêmio
-
Bahia
1:0
17.08.2024
Grêmio
-
Bahia
0:2
27.04.2024
Bahia
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.11.2023
Grêmio
-
Bahia
1:0
12.07.2023
Grêmio
-
Bahia
2:1
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
