Result
1:0
25/05/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 10
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.13 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (213/276) | 89% (502/563) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 0.25 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 17 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 33 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (213/276) | 89% (502/563) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (20/48) | 69% (37/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (48/84) | 84% (130/154) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 10% (4/40) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.75 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (10/20) | 41% (7/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 49 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.25 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Joao Pedro ↓, Ronald ↑,
- 26', Cristaldo F. 🟨,
- 28', Amuzu F. 🟨,
- 35', David Duarte 🟨,
- 39', Ramos S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Amuzu F. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 60', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
- 68', Rodriguez L. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
- 68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 68', Michel Araujo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 74', Cristaldo F. ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 79', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 79', Braithwaite M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
- 84', Cauly ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
- 84', Gilberto ↓, Arias S. ↑,
- 90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 90+10', Aravena A. 🟨,
- 90+13', Caio Alexandre 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
38.3% | Draw
30.2% | Bahia
31.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
Grêmio - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.5 ↑
(2.45) |
3.13 ↓
(3.24) |
2.99 ↑
(2.9) |
5.4%
(6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
Grêmio will win
(18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Gabriel Mec
(Ankle Injury)
Jemerson
(Yellow Cards)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Ademir
(Muscle Injury)
Arias S.
(Muscle Injury)
Jean Lucas
(Red Card)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Rezende
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson
(Thigh Injury)
Gustavo Martins
(Knee Injury)
Igor Serrote
(Wrist Injury)
Mayk
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Bahia?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Grêmio?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Bahia were as follows:
17.08.2024
Grêmio
-
Bahia
0:2
27.04.2024
Bahia
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.11.2023
Grêmio
-
Bahia
1:0
12.07.2023
Grêmio
-
Bahia
2:1
04.07.2023
Bahia
-
Grêmio
1:1
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 34:15 | 19 | 41 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 4 | Bahia | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 27:17 | 10 | 36 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26:12 | 14 | 32 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 30:19 | 11 | 32 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 26:28 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 9 | Fluminense | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 25:28 | -3 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 22:27 | -5 | 25 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 13 | Internacional | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 24 |
| 14 | Gremio | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 24 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 20:31 | -11 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 27:29 | -2 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 18:41 | -23 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19:32 | -13 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
