Bahia vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A
Result
4:0
19/10/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 29
  • Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 2
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.500.77
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
2312
Shots on target
101
Big Chances
61
Corner Kicks
115
Passes
90% (473/526)89% (312/349)
Yellow Cards
21
Expected Goals (xG)
2.500.77
xG on target (xGOT)
2.630.06
Total shots
2312
Shots on target
101
Shots off target
77
Blocked Shots
64
Shots inside the Box
158
Shots outside the Box
84
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
61
Corner Kicks
115
Touches in opposition box
4015
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
129
Passes
90% (473/526)89% (312/349)
Long passes
58% (22/38)38% (10/26)
Passes in final third
82% (133/163)86% (93/108)
Crosses
32% (6/19)28% (5/18)
Expected assists (xA)
2.420.89
Throw-ins
1312
Fouls
912
Tackles
73% (16/22)63% (10/16)
Duels won
5732
Clearances
1723
Interceptions
114
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.062.63
Goals prevented
0.06-1.37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 4', 1 - 0, Iago Borduchi ⚽, Ademir (A),
  • 10', 2 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽, Michel Araujo (A),
  • 18', Marcos Rocha ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Aravena A. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
  • 57', 3 - 0, David Duarte ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
  • 63', Pavon C. ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
  • 63', Cuellar G. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
  • 64', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
  • 68', Tiago ↓, Kayky ↑,
  • 68', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
  • 68', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
  • 74', Michel Araujo ↓, Cauly ↑,
  • 79', Noriega E. ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
  • 80', Iago Borduchi 🟨,
  • 82', Willian Jose ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
  • 85', Ruan Pablo 🟨,
  • 90+3', 4 - 0, Rodrigo ⚽, Kayky (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Bahia
67.5%		Draw
20.8%		Grêmio
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.2% 26.5% 21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57% 28.9% 19.5%

Bahia - Grêmio Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 1.61 ↓
(1.79)		 5.6 ↑
(3.53)		 10.27 ↑
(4.39)		 -10.4%
(7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Bahia - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 29.6% – 90.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Bahia is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Hamstring Injury) Everton Ribeiro (Inactive) Joao Paulo (Knee Injury) Luciano Juba (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Dodi (Yellow Cards) Fabian Balbuena (Ankle Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Ramos S. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Alysson (Injury) Arthur Melo (Injury) Monsalve M. (Shoulder Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury) Tiago Volpi (Muscle Injury) Willian (Leg Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 0.9:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Grêmio were as follows:
    25.05.2025 Grêmio - Bahia 1:0
    17.08.2024 Grêmio - Bahia 0:2
    27.04.2024 Bahia - Grêmio 1:0
    04.11.2023 Grêmio - Bahia 1:0
    12.07.2023 Grêmio - Bahia 2:1
    Latest results of Bahia
    16.10.2025 Vitória Salvador - Bahia 2:1 ✺
    05.10.2025 Bahia - Flamengo 1:0 ✺
    01.10.2025 Botafogo RJ - Bahia 2:1 ✺
    28.09.2025 Bahia - Palmeiras 1:0 ✺
    24.09.2025 Vasco da Gama - Bahia 3:1 ✺
    Latest results of Grêmio
    16.10.2025 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:0 ✺
    04.10.2025 Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio 1:0 ✺
    01.10.2025 Santos - Grêmio 1:1 ✺
    28.09.2025 Grêmio - Vitória Salvador 3:1 ✺
    24.09.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ 1:1 ✺
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2026
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bragantino00000:000
    2Internacional00000:000
    3Vasco00000:000
    4Gremio00000:000
    5Botafogo RJ00000:000
    6Santos00000:000
    7Sao Paulo00000:000
    8Coritiba00000:000
    9Cruzeiro00000:000
    10Vitoria00000:000
    11Atletico-MG00000:000
    12Fluminense00000:000
    13Flamengo RJ00000:000
    14Palmeiras00000:000
    15Athletico-PR00000:000
    16Bahia00000:000
    17Corinthians00000:000
    18Mirassol00000:000
    19Remo00000:000
    20Chapecoense-SC00000:000

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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