Result
1:0
25/05/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 10
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.22 | 1.13 |
Ball Possession |
---|
32% | 68% |
Total shots |
---|
9 | 16 |
Shots on target |
---|
2 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 17 |
Passes |
---|
77% (213/276) | 89% (502/563) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
4 | 4 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.22 | 1.13 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.78 | 0.25 |
Total shots |
---|
9 | 16 |
Shots on target |
---|
2 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
5 | 9 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
2 | 4 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
4 | 8 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
5 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 17 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
11 | 33 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
2 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
---|
13 | 10 |
Passes |
---|
77% (213/276) | 89% (502/563) |
Long passes |
---|
42% (20/48) | 69% (37/54) |
Passes in final third |
---|
57% (48/84) | 84% (130/154) |
Crosses |
---|
18% (2/11) | 10% (4/40) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.60 | 0.75 |
Throw-ins |
---|
5 | 12 |
Fouls |
---|
10 | 13 |
Tackles |
---|
50% (10/20) | 41% (7/17) |
Duels won |
---|
60 | 43 |
Clearances |
---|
49 | 13 |
Interceptions |
---|
6 | 6 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
1 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 1 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.25 | 0.78 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.25 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Joao Pedro ↓, Ronald ↑,
- 26', Cristaldo F. 🟨,
- 28', Amuzu F. 🟨,
- 35', David Duarte 🟨,
- 39', Ramos S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Amuzu F. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 60', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
- 68', Rodriguez L. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
- 68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 68', Michel Araujo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 74', Cristaldo F. ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 79', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 79', Braithwaite M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
- 84', Cauly ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
- 84', Gilberto ↓, Arias S. ↑,
- 90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 90+10', Aravena A. 🟨,
- 90+13', Caio Alexandre 🟨,
Chances of winning
Grêmio 38.3% | Draw 30.2% | Bahia 31.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
Grêmio - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.5 ↑ (2.45) |
3.13 ↓ (3.24) |
2.99 ↑ (2.9) |
5.4% (6.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
Grêmio will win
(18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Gabriel Mec
(Ankle Injury)
Jemerson
(Yellow Cards)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Ademir
(Muscle Injury)
Arias S.
(Muscle Injury)
Jean Lucas
(Red Card)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Rezende
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson
(Thigh Injury)
Gustavo Martins
(Knee Injury)
Igor Serrote
(Wrist Injury)
Mayk
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Bahia?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Grêmio?
Bahia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Bahia were as follows:
17.08.2024
Grêmio
-
Bahia
0:2
27.04.2024
Bahia
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.11.2023
Grêmio
-
Bahia
1:0
12.07.2023
Grêmio
-
Bahia
2:1
04.07.2023
Bahia
-
Grêmio
1:1
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 31:7 | 24 | 37 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 37 |
3 | Palmeiras | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 21:14 | 7 | 33 |
4 | Bahia | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 29 |
5 | Mirassol | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27:16 | 11 | 28 |
6 | Bragantino | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 21:22 | -1 | 27 |
7 | Botafogo RJ | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18:10 | 8 | 26 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 20:20 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Fluminense | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18:20 | -2 | 23 |
10 | Atletico-MG | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18:17 | 1 | 23 |
11 | Ceara | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 22 |
12 | Corinthians | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 17:21 | -4 | 22 |
13 | Internacional | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:22 | -4 | 21 |
14 | Gremio | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 18 |
16 | Vasco | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18:23 | -5 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 18:24 | -6 | 15 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 16 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet