Grêmio vs Bahia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Grêmio - Bahia
Result
1:0
25/05/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 10
  • Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.221.13
Ball Possession
32%68%
Total shots
916
Shots on target
23
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
417
Passes
77% (213/276)89% (502/563)
Yellow Cards
44
Expected Goals (xG)
1.221.13
xG on target (xGOT)
0.780.25
Total shots
916
Shots on target
23
Shots off target
59
Blocked Shots
24
Shots inside the Box
48
Shots outside the Box
58
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
417
Touches in opposition box
1133
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
77% (213/276)89% (502/563)
Long passes
42% (20/48)69% (37/54)
Passes in final third
57% (48/84)84% (130/154)
Crosses
18% (2/11)10% (4/40)
Expected assists (xA)
0.600.75
Throw-ins
512
Fouls
1013
Tackles
50% (10/20)41% (7/17)
Duels won
6043
Clearances
4913
Interceptions
66
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
0.250.78
Goals prevented
0.25-0.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 22', Joao Pedro , Ronald ,
  • 26', Cristaldo F. 🟨,
  • 28', Amuzu F. 🟨,
  • 35', David Duarte 🟨,
  • 39', Ramos S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Amuzu F. , Pavon C. ,
  • 60', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,
  • 61', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
  • 68', Rodriguez L. , Willian Jose ,
  • 68', Everton Ribeiro , Kayky ,
  • 68', Michel Araujo , Rodrigo ,
  • 74', Cristaldo F. , Gustavo Martins ,
  • 79', Olivera C. , Aravena A. ,
  • 79', Braithwaite M. , Arezo M. ,
  • 84', Cauly , Iago Borduchi ,
  • 84', Gilberto , Arias S. ,
  • 90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
  • 90+10', Aravena A. 🟨,
  • 90+13', Caio Alexandre 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Grêmio
38.3%
Draw
30.2%
Bahia
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.4% 29.1% 32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2% 29.3% 32.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
  • Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • Grêmio - Bahia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.5
    (2.45)
    3.13
    (3.24)
    2.99
    (2.9)
    5.4%
    (6.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio - Bahia?
  • Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 76.85%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Gabriel Mec (Ankle Injury) Jemerson (Yellow Cards) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Bahia: Ademir (Muscle Injury) Arias S. (Muscle Injury) Jean Lucas (Red Card) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Rezende (Back Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson (Thigh Injury) Gustavo Martins (Knee Injury) Igor Serrote (Wrist Injury) Mayk (Hamstring Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Bahia were as follows:
    17.08.2024 Grêmio - Bahia 0:2
    27.04.2024 Bahia - Grêmio 1:0
    04.11.2023 Grêmio - Bahia 1:0
    12.07.2023 Grêmio - Bahia 2:1
    04.07.2023 Bahia - Grêmio 1:1
    Latest results of Grêmio
    20.05.2025 Grêmio - CS Alagoano 0:0
    17.05.2025 São Paulo - Grêmio 2:1
    13.05.2025 Grêmio - Godoy Cruz 1:1
    07.05.2025 Atlético Grau - Grêmio 0:0
    Latest results of Bahia
    21.05.2025 Bahia - Paysandu 4:0
    18.05.2025 Bahia - Vitória Salvador 2:1
    14.05.2025 Atlético Nacional - Bahia 1:0
    10.05.2025 Flamengo - Bahia 1:0
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ17114231:72437
    2Cruzeiro18114330:111937
    3Palmeiras16103321:14733
    4Bahia1685320:13729
    5Mirassol1677227:161128
    6Bragantino1883721:22-127
    7Botafogo RJ1675418:10826
    8Sao Paulo1867520:20025
    9Fluminense1672718:20-223
    10Atletico-MG1665518:17123
    11Ceara1764717:17022
    12Corinthians1857617:21-422
    13Internacional1756618:22-421
    14Gremio1755716:23-720
    15Vitoria1839616:20-418
    16Vasco1643918:23-515
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1736818:24-615
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1606109:25-166

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet