Result
5:3
04/02/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 2
- Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 Peru | Liga 1 Max |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | TV Globo Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.17 | 1.13 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (299/355) | 87% (410/472) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.17 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.28 | 1.78 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (299/355) | 87% (410/472) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (23/50) | 44% (16/36) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (48/75) | 72% (52/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.03 | 1.08 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.78 | 4.28 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.22 | -0.72 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 7', Barboza A. 🟨,
- 16', Anselmi M. 🟨,
- 17', 0 - 1, Arthur Cabral ⚽, Barboza A. (A),
- 19', Rodriguez S. ↓, Artur ↑,
- 26', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽,
- 36', 1 - 2, Danilo ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
- 45+3', Monsalve M. ↓, Willian ↑,
- 2nd Half (4 - 1)
- 46', Pavon C. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 50', 2 - 2, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),
- 53', Ponte M. 🟨,
- 57', 3 - 2, Carlos Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
- 60', 4 - 2, Tete ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),
- 61', Montoro A. ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
- 62', Ponte M. ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
- 68', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 68', Tete ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 70', Allan 🟨,
- 79', 5 - 2, Edenilson ⚽,
- 82', Artur ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
- 82', Allan ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
- 86', 5 - 3, Danilo ⚽, Barboza A. (A),
- 90+2', Arthur Melo ↓, Dodi ↑,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
40.7% | Draw
31.1% | Botafogo RJ
28.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-4.8%)
Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.34 ↑
(2.02) |
3.05 ↓
(3.25) |
3.35 ↓
(3.7) |
5.5%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Botafogo RJ?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Botafogo will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 39.2% – 89.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 50%). Botafogo (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Botafogo (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DNB - Botafogo (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Botafogo (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 25%). Botafogo (votes: 6 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Botafogo has had a series of home games.
- Grêmio is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
Walter Kannemann
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Botafogo: Correa J.
(Inactive)
Ramos C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:21. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.7:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Botafogo RJ?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Botafogo RJ won against Grêmio?
Botafogo RJ has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Botafogo RJ were as follows:
22.11.2025
Botafogo RJ
-
Grêmio
3:2
24.09.2025
Grêmio
-
Botafogo RJ
1:1
28.09.2024
Botafogo RJ
-
Grêmio
0:0
16.06.2024
Grêmio
-
Botafogo RJ
1:2
09.11.2023
Botafogo RJ
-
Grêmio
3:4
Latest results of Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Bahia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gremio | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Vasco | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Internacional | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Santos | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Chapecoense-SC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | Remo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | -4 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
