Guarany de Bagé vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:2
21/01/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Gaucho - Round 4

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.300.62
Ball possession
26%74%
Total shots
69
Shots on target
32
Big chances
13
Corner kicks
24
Passes
64% (113/177)87% (436/502)
Yellow cards
32
Red cards
10
Expected goals (xG)
0.300.62
xG on target (xGOT)
0.471.00
Total shots
69
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
35
Blocked shots
02
Shots inside the box
17
Shots outside the box
52
Hit the woodwork
01
Headed goals
01
Big chances
13
Corner kicks
24
Touches in opposition box
625
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free kicks
1913
Passes
64% (113/177)87% (436/502)
Long passes
33% (13/39)65% (32/49)
Passes in final third
40% (24/60)78% (135/173)
Crosses
0% (0/10)17% (3/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.070.81
Throw ins
2319
Fouls
1319
Tackles
78% (14/18)78% (7/9)
Duels won
4542
Clearances
3415
Interceptions
55
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
03
xGOT faced
1.000.47
Goals prevented
-1.000.47

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 29', Adailson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 47', Michel Bennech 🟨,
  • 50', Michel Bennech 🟥,
  • 52', Adailson , Alberte ,
  • 57', Joao Pedro 🟨,
  • 61', Andre Henrique , Carlos Vinicius ,
  • 61', Enamorado J. , Aravena A. ,
  • 62', Roger , Gabriel Mec ,
  • 72', Dodi , Jefinho ,
  • 74', 0 - 1, Carlos Vinicius , Gabriel Mec (A),
  • 78', Jefinho 🟨,
  • 80', Joao Pedro , Marcos Rocha ,
  • 82', 0 - 2, Edenilson ,
  • 85', Tony Junior , Marquinhos ,
  • 85', Raphinha , Allan ,
  • 85', David Cunha , Vitor Oliveira ,
  • 87', Allan 🟨,

Chances of winning


Guarany de Bagé
16.8%
Draw
25.5%
Grêmio
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
19.8% 28.1% 52.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio's recent form is better than expected.
  • Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    5.48
    (4.57)
    3.55
    (3.23)
    1.59
    (1.74)
    9.3%
    (10.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.75 - Grêmio (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Grêmio has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Guarany de Bagé may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Grêmio is the clear favorite.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Guarany de Bagé won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Guarany de Bagé - Grêmio were as follows:
    02.03.2024 Grêmio - Guarany de Bagé 4:1
    Latest results of Guarany de Bagé
    Latest results of Grêmio
    17.01.2026 Grêmio - São Luiz 5:0
    10.01.2026 Avenida - Grêmio 0:4
    07.12.2025 Sport Recife - Grêmio 0:4
    02.12.2025 Grêmio - Fluminense 1:2
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1InternacionalSao Luiz3 : 1
    2SER CaxiasYpiranga FC0 : 2
    3JuventudeEC Sao Jose3 : 2
    4GremioNovo Hamburgo1 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1InternacionalYpiranga FC4 : 0, 3 : 0
    2JuventudeGremio1 : 2, 1 : 1

    Final
    1InternacionalGremio