Result
1:1
15/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | HBO Max |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 1.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 73% | 27% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 29 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (468/548) | 66% (135/205) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 1.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.14 | 1.99 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 29 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 48 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (468/548) | 66% (135/205) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (41/67) | 31% (15/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (171/230) | 53% (21/40) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (7/31) | 50% (3/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.45 | 0.39 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 33 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 42% (5/12) | 48% (13/27) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 49 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.99 | 2.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 8', 0 - 1, Lucca ⚽,
- 29', Willian Farias 🟨,
- 30', Nathan Melo ↓, Ralf ↑,
- 41', Jefte 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 48', Ralf 🟨,
- 55', Martinez E. ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
- 55', Mauricio ↓, Marlon Freitas ↑,
- 65', Jefte ↓, Piquerez J. ↑,
- 65', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Andreas Pereira ↑,
- 65', Caique Franca 🟨,
- 69', Guilherme Parede ↓, Hebert ↑,
- 76', Giay A. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 77', 1 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
- 78', Lucca 🟨,
- 80', Mirandinha ↓, Dentinho ↑,
- 80', Lucca ↓, Kewen ↑,
- 80', Kaua Jesus ↓, Fabricio Dias ↑,
- 90+5', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
71.3% | Draw
18.7% | Guarani
10.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
Palmeiras - Guarani Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.31 ↑
(1.24) |
5.04 ↓
(5.19) |
9.32 ↓
(11.42) |
6.8%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Guarani?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.25 - Guarani (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%). Guarani (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Guarani may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Arias J.
(Inactive)
Felipe Anderson
(Inactive)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Guarani: Diego Torres
(Yellow Cards)
Igor Pereira
(Injury)
Isaque
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Guarani: Maranhao
(Inactive)
Rafael Donato
(Inactive)
Rian
(Inactive)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Palmeiras won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Guarani?
Palmeiras has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guarani won against Palmeiras?
Guarani has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Guarani were as follows:
02.02.2025
Guarani
-
Palmeiras
1:4
05.03.2023
Guarani
-
Palmeiras
0:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Guarani
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
