Itabaiana vs Guarany de Porto da Folha – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:1
14/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Sergipano - Round 9

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 86', 0 - 1, ,
  • 90+2', 1 - 1, ,

Chances of winning


Itabaiana
66.7%
Draw
22.3%
Guarany de Porto da Folha
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.6% 24.4% 17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3% 23.7% 16.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Itabaiana's performance.
  • Guarany de Porto da Folha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guarany de Porto da Folha might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Itabaiana that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Porto da Folha than the current prediction. (+5.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarany de Porto da Folha could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.36
    (1.55)
    4.08
    (3.72)
    8.25
    (5.35)
    10.1%
    (10.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • Itabaiana is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    • Guarany PF is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    • Itabaiana is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Guarany PF's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, Guarany PF has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Itabaiana is a strong favorite.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Itabaiana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Itabaiana - Guarany de Porto da Folha were as follows:
    22.01.2025 Guarany de Porto da Folha - Itabaiana 1:1
    Latest results of Itabaiana
    08.02.2026 Confiança - Itabaiana 1:0
    04.02.2026 Itabaiana - Dorense 3:0
    31.01.2026 Lagarto - Itabaiana 0:0
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1Sergipe (1)Bye
    2Lagarto (3)America SE (6)0 : 3
    3Itabaiana (2)Falcon (7)1 : 0
    4Confianca (4)Guarany SE (5)1 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Sergipe (1)America SE (6)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    2Itabaiana (2)Confianca (4)0 : 2, 2 : 1

    Final
    1Sergipe (1)Confianca (4)

    3rd place
    2Itabaiana (2)America SE (6)