Result
2:3
27/07/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Allsvenskan - Round 17
- Referee: Ostling J. (Swe)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | HBO Max, Veikkaus TV |
 Sweden | Discovery+, HBO Max, max Extra 3, TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 2.41 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (211/292) | 86% (502/584) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 2.41 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.11 | 1.83 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 48 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (211/292) | 86% (502/584) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (15/55) | 51% (21/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (58/89) | 80% (213/267) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 31% (5/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 1.93 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 6 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.83 | 2.11 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.17 | 0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Pinas S. ⚽, Besara N. (A),
- 14', 1 - 1, Shamoun N. ⚽, Rapp J. (A),
- 32', 2 - 1, Antonsson M. ⚽, Shamoun N. (A),
- 36', Bjornstrom A. 🟨,
- 45', Bjornstrom A. ↓, Grozdanic E. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Bilalovic K. ↓, Thern S. ↑,
- 62', Johansson C. ↓, Alsalkhadi M. ↑,
- 62', Skoglund H. ↓, Karlsson J. ↑,
- 62', Madjed M. ↓, Abraham P. ↑,
- 62', Ortmark J. ↓, Johansson O. ↑,
- 68', 2 - 2, Besara N. (Pen),
- 69', Shamoun N. ↓, Liimatta O. ↑,
- 69', Rapp J. ↓, Larsson V. ↑,
- 72', Mohammed R. 🟨,
- 78', 2 - 3, Erabi J. ⚽, Johansson O. (A),
- 84', Tounekti S. ↓, Fofana I. ↑,
Chances of winning
Värnamo
17.6% | Draw
22.9% | Hammarby
59.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Värnamo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Hammarby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hammarby than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Värnamo - Hammarby Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.78 ↑
(4.33) |
4.37 ↑
(4.1) |
1.66 ↓
(1.67) |
0.4%
(7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Värnamo - Hammarby?
Users Predictions:
Hammarby will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hammarby will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 2.
- Värnamo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Hammarby is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Värnamo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Hammarby has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Hammarby is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Hammarby: Collander D.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Värnamo: Lohikangas A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.8:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Värnamo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.2:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Värnamo won against Hammarby?
Värnamo has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Hammarby won against Värnamo?
Hammarby has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Värnamo - Hammarby were as follows:
05.07.2025
Hammarby
-
Värnamo
1:0
17.08.2024
Värnamo
-
Hammarby
0:3
05.05.2024
Hammarby
-
Värnamo
1:2
04.11.2023
Värnamo
-
Hammarby
0:0
29.05.2023
Hammarby
-
Värnamo
0:2
Latest results of Värnamo
Latest results of Hammarby
Swedish Allsvenskan Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Mjallby | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 38:15 | 23 | 46 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 36:16 | 20 | 42 |
| 3 | Elfsborg | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 35:25 | 10 | 36 |
| 4 | AIK | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 24:16 | 8 | 34 |
| 5 | Malmo FF | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 29:17 | 12 | 33 |
| 6 | GAIS | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 29:16 | 13 | 32 |
| 7 | Goteborg | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 28:26 | 2 | 31 |
| 8 | Djurgarden | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 22:19 | 3 | 27 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 30:30 | 0 | 23 |
| 10 | Hacken | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26:33 | -7 | 23 |
| 11 | Norrkoping | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 29:37 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 | Halmstad | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15:36 | -21 | 18 |
| 13 | Sirius | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 24:31 | -7 | 17 |
| 14 | Oster | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14:25 | -11 | 15 |
| 15 | Degerfors | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 18:39 | -21 | 15 |
| 16 | Varnamo | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 19:35 | -16 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Superettan
