Result
1:0
21/02/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 20
- Referee: Altmann W. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 0.40 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (251/346) | 80% (358/445) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 0.40 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (251/346) | 80% (358/445) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (27/67) | 49% (34/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (46/84) | 59% (74/126) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 47% (7/15) | 18% (4/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.38 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.80 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Hoffmann M. ↓, Drew J. ↑,
- 46', Coulibaly H. ↓, Hennig M. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 0, Wilfinger F. ⚽,
- 65', Spendlhofer L. 🟨,
- 66', Grosse M. ↓, Hofleitner A. ↑,
- 66', Satin M. ↓, Paumgartner T. ↑,
- 72', Diarra Y. 🟨,
- 77', Vraa-Jensen L. ↓, Lichtenberger C. ↑,
- 81', Kainz T. ↓, Halwachs J. ↑,
- 85', Paumgartner T. 🟨,
- 87', Diarra Y. ↓, Schopp K. ↑,
- 90+1', Havel E. ↓, Fridrikas L. ↑,
- 90+4', Italiano J. ↓, Graf L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Hartberg
37.1% | Draw
29.9% | Grazer AK
33.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hartberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)Grazer AK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (+6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hartberg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grazer AK than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grazer AK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Hartberg - Grazer AK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.54 ↑
(2.27) |
3.14 ↑
(3.08) |
2.88 ↓
(3.12) |
6%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Hartberg - Grazer AK?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Hartberg will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Grazer will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hartberg: 32.6% – 78.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Hartberg (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Grazer (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- DC - Hartberg (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Hartberg (votes: 3 - 75%). Grazer (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).
- Hartberg is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Grazer has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Hartberg: Komposch P.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Grazer: Jano Z.
(Injury)
Koch T.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Grazer: Italiano J.
(Injury)
Kreuzriegler M.
(Injury)
Oberleitner Y.
(Inactive)
Prenqi A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartberg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Hartberg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Hartberg won against Grazer AK?
Hartberg has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grazer AK won against Hartberg?
Grazer AK has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hartberg - Grazer AK were as follows:
18.10.2025
Grazer AK
-
Hartberg
0:0
25.04.2025
Hartberg
-
Grazer AK
1:1
22.04.2025
Grazer AK
-
Hartberg
0:3
08.12.2024
Grazer AK
-
Hartberg
0:3
31.08.2024
Hartberg
-
Grazer AK
1:1
Latest results of Hartberg
Latest results of Grazer AK
Austrian Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Salzburg ✔ | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz ✔ | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 31:26 | 5 | 35 |
| 3 | LASK ✔ | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29:29 | 0 | 34 |
| 4 | Austria Vienna ✔ | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 32:30 | 2 | 33 |
| 5 | Hartberg | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | SK Rapid | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 25:25 | 0 | 30 |
| 7 | Altach | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22:21 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Tirol | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 29:30 | -1 | 28 |
| 9 | Ried | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 26:28 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC ✔ | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 30:29 | 1 | 26 |
| 11 | Grazer AK ✔ | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 22:34 | -12 | 20 |
| 12 | BW Linz ✔ | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 19:35 | -16 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Salzburg is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
Sturm Graz is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
LASK is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
Austria Vienna is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
Wolfsberger AC is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
Grazer AK is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
BW Linz is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
