Result
4:5
14/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 2.71 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 24 | 28 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 16.67% (4/24) | 17.86% (5/28) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 23 | 20 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 82.14% (23/28) | 83.33% (20/24) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 33.33% (1/3) | 50% (1/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 50% (1/2) | 66.67% (2/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 24 | 34 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 41.38 | 58.62 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 0)
- 05:11, Ashbrook T. (2 min),
- 05:38, 1 - 0, Hirvonen R. (G), Kantner M. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 07:42, Hirvonen R. (2 min),
- 13:10, 2 - 0, Hermonen J. (G), Raty Aku (A), Tichacek J. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 00:32, Sund T. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 5)
- 02:01, Makiaho D. (2 min),
- 04:54, 2 - 1, Melart I. (G), Ashbrook T. (A), Makiaho D. (A2)
- 07:48, 3 - 1, Hakanpaa J. (G), Salmela T. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
- 11:03, Ohtamaa A. (2 min),
- 11:40, 3 - 2, Pakarinen I. (G), Kodytek P. (A), Lehtera J. (A2)
- 11:56, 3 - 3, Makiaho D. (G), Repo S. (A),
- 12:16, 4 - 3, Raty Aku (G), Salmela T. (A), Hakanpaa J. (A2)
- 18:29, 4 - 4, Pakarinen I. (G), Lehtera J. (A), Ervasti K. (A2)
- 19:52, 4 - 5, Marleau V. (G), Lehtera J. (A),
Chances of winning
Kärpät
36.8% | Draw
23.9% | HIFK
39.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)HIFK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
Kärpät - HIFK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.51 ↑
(2.5) |
3.85 ↓
(4.06) |
2.41 ↑
(2.35) |
7.2%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.
- Kärpät is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- HIFK is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- HIFK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- We predict that HIFK will win today's game, with odds of 2.32.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 40:58. (average 2:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 2:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against HIFK?
Kärpät has won 6 of their last 23 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has HIFK won against Kärpät?
HIFK has won 17 of their last 23 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - HIFK were as follows:
13.03.2026
HIFK
-
Kärpät
3:1
06.02.2026
HIFK
-
Kärpät
3:2
05.12.2025
Kärpät
-
HIFK
0:1
15.11.2025
Kärpät
-
HIFK
5:2
14.11.2025
HIFK
-
Kärpät
4:3
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Tappara (1) | Bye | |
| 2 | Lukko (5) | Hameenlinna (12) | 1 : 3 |
| 3 | Ilves (4) | Bye | |
| 4 | KalPa (7) | IFK Helsinki (10) | 3 : 2 |
| 5 | KooKoo (2) | Bye | |
| 6 | JYP (6) | Pelicans (11) | 0 : 3 |
| 7 | SaiPa (3) | Bye | |
| 8 | Assat (8) | Kiekko-Espoo (9) | 3 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Tappara (1) | Hameenlinna (12) | 1 : 1 |
| 2 | Ilves (4) | KalPa (7) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | KooKoo (2) | Pelicans (11) | 1 : 1 |
| 4 | SaiPa (3) | Assat (8) | 1 : 1 |
