Hiroki Moriya vs Karol Filar – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1
28/03/2026 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Miyazaki - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Match Stats

Aces
25
Double Faults
55
1st serve percentage
53%55%
1st serve points won
73% (36/49)70% (35/50)
2nd serve points won
44% (19/43)27% (11/41)
Break Points Saved
11/155/13
1st return points won
32% (16/50)31% (15/49)
2nd return points won
73% (30/41)56% (24/43)
Break Points Converted
8/134/15
Winners
1926
Unforced errors
3956
Service Points Won
60% (55/92)51% (46/90)
Return Points Won
49% (44/90)40% (37/92)
Total Points Won
54% (99/182)46% (83/182)
Last 10 balls
82
Match points saved
00
Service games won
71% (10/14)43% (6/14)
Return games won
57% (8/14)29% (4/14)
Total games won
64% (18/28)36% (10/28)

Chances of winning


Hiroki Moriya
62.7%
Karol Filar
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.6% 48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5% 43.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hiroki Moriya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hiroki Moriya's performance.
  • Karol Filar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karol Filar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hiroki Moriya that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karol Filar than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karol Filar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Hiroki Moriya - Karol Filar Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.49
    (1.76)

    2.51
    (1.88)
    6.9%
    (10%)
    Preview Facts
    • Moriya is ranked ATP: 462. Filar is ranked ATP: 620.
    • Both players have been playing unpredictably.
    • Moriya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.
    • In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Hiroki Moriya
    10.03.2026 Hiroki Moriya - Stefan Vujic Moriya H. retired
    05.03.2026 Hiroki Moriya - Li Tu 1:2
    Latest results of Karol Filar
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Holmgren A. (1)Oki Y. (WC)1 : 2
    2Shimizu Y.Ilagan A.0 : 2
    3Matsuoka H.Samrej K.2 : 0
    4Broady L.Uchida K. (5)2 : 0
    5Zhou Y. (4)Takahashi Y. (LL)2 : 0
    6Overbeck C. E. (Q)Milic O. (NG)0 : 2
    7Ellis B. (PR)Honda N. (WC)2 : 1
    8Jones M.Sun F. (8)2 : 0
    9Wendelken H. (7)Boulais J. (Q)2 : 0
    10Nam Ji S. (Q)Shick B.0 : 2
    11Jasika O.Tu L. (Q)2 : 0
    12Tokuda R.Hsu Y. H. (3)0 : 2
    13Noguchi R. (6)Wu Tung-Lin0 : 2
    14Taguchi R. (WC)Jubb P.1 : 2
    15Moriya H. (Q)Matsuda K. (Q)2 : 1
    16Trotter J. K.Added D. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Oki Y. (RET.)Ilagan A.0 : 1
    2Matsuoka H.Broady L.1 : 2
    3Zhou Y. (4)Milic O.0 : 2
    4Ellis B.Jones M.2 : 1
    5Wendelken H. (7)Shick B.2 : 0
    6Jasika O.Hsu Y. H. (3)1 : 2
    7Wu Tung-LinJubb P.2 : 1
    8Moriya H.Trotter J. K.2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Ilagan A.Broady L.0 : 2
    2Milic O. (RET.)Ellis B.1 : 0
    3Wendelken H. (7)Hsu Y. H. (3)2 : 0
    4Wu Tung-LinMoriya H.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Broady L.Ellis B.2 : 0
    2Wendelken H. (7)Wu Tung-Lin2 : 1

    Final
    1Broady L.Wendelken H. (7)