Result
3:1
07/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.29 | 2.05 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 31 | 25 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 9.68% (3/31) | 4% (1/25) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 24 | 28 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 96% (24/25) | 90.32% (28/31) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/3) | 0% (0/0) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (0/0) | 100% (3/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 30 | 27 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 52.63 | 47.37 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 13:21, 1 - 0, Paivarinta S. (G), Wright C. (A), Sertti L. (A2)
- 14:25, 1 - 1, Nilsson O. (G), Lipiainen V. (A), Ylitalo O. (A2)
- 2nd Period (1 - 0)
- 11:02, Viljanen V. (2 min),
- 17:40, 2 - 1, Wright C. (G), Hakulinen A. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
- 3rd Period (1 - 0)
- 03:34, 3 - 1, Wright C. (G), Kukkonen M. (A), Hakulinen A. (A2)
- 07:45, Knihti F. (2 min),
- 09:58, Tammela J. (2 min),
Chances of winning
HPK
54.6% | Draw
21.8% | Ässät
23.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HPK's performance.Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ässät might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-6.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HPK that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ässät could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
HPK - Ässät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.71 ↓
(2.2) |
4.23 ↑
(4.06) |
3.93 ↑
(2.7) |
7.7%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 4.75
What is the prediction for HPK - Ässät?
Users Predictions:
HPK will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): HPK will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 0.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- HPK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, HPK is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 46:57. (average 2.3:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 2.5:2.9).
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against Ässät?
HPK has won 7 of their last 23 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ässät won against HPK?
Ässät has won 16 of their last 23 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HPK - Ässät were as follows:
27.12.2025
Ässät
-
HPK
4:3
03.10.2025
HPK
-
Ässät
2:4
12.09.2025
Ässät
-
HPK
4:1
21.03.2025
Ässät
-
HPK
5:1
19.03.2025
HPK
-
Ässät
1:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
