Result
2:1
05/03/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - 1/8-finals
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| 1st serve percentage |
|---|
| 53% | 69% |
| 1st serve points won |
|---|
| 83% (33/40) | 62% (32/52) |
| 2nd serve points won |
|---|
| 57% (20/35) | 48% (11/23) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 60% (3/5) | 0% (0/4) |
| 1st return points won |
|---|
| 38% (20/52) | 18% (7/40) |
| 2nd return points won |
|---|
| 52% (12/23) | 43% (15/35) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 100% (4/4) | 40% (2/5) |
| Winners |
|---|
| 38 | 12 |
| Unforced errors |
|---|
| 29 | 32 |
| Net points won |
|---|
| 90% (9/10) | 45% (10/22) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 71% (53/75) | 57% (43/75) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 43% (32/75) | 29% (22/75) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 57% (85/150) | 43% (65/150) |
| Last 10 balls |
|---|
| 10 | 0 |
| Match points saved |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Service games won |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 69% (9/13) |
| Return games won |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 15% (2/13) |
| Total games won |
|---|
| 58% (15/26) | 42% (11/26) |
Chances of winning
Hugo Gaston
72.3% | Keegan Smith
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hugo Gaston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hugo Gaston's performance.Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Keegan Smith might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hugo Gaston than the current prediction. (-7.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hugo Gaston that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+7.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keegan Smith could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.3 ↓
(1.45) |
|
3.42 ↑
(2.55) |
6.4%
(8.2%) | |
What is the prediction for Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Gaston will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Smith will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaston: 50.6% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.5 Sets - Gaston (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hugo Gaston will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Gaston (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Gaston is ranked ATP: 96. Smith is ranked ATP: 306.
- In recent matches, Gaston has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Smith is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Gaston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Gaston is considered a favorite.
- In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Hugo Gaston won against Keegan Smith?
Hugo Gaston has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Keegan Smith won against Hugo Gaston?
Keegan Smith has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hugo Gaston - Keegan Smith were as follows:
Latest results of Hugo Gaston
Latest results of Keegan Smith
Draw
Singles - Main1/16-finals| 1 | Gaston H. (1) | Glinka D. (RET.) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Holmgren A. | Smith K. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Sels J. (LL) | Kouame M. (WC) | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Engel J. | Zeppieri G. (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 5 | Ofner S. (4) | Loffhagen G. (Alt) | 2 : 1 |
| 6 | Cassone M. (Q) | Broom C. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 7 | Rodionov J. | Grenier H. (RET.) | 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Added D. (Alt) | Krumich M. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 9 | Blanchet U. (8) | Watanuki Y. (RET.) (Q) | 1 : 1 |
| 10 | Bertola R. (Alt) | Chidekh C. | 0 : 2 |
| 11 | Herbert P. | Bailly G. A. (Alt) | 2 : 1 |
| 12 | Paris T. (WC) | Virtanen O. (3) | 1 : 2 |
| 13 | Budkov Kjaer N. (6) | Molcan A. | 2 : 0 |
| 14 | Tabur C. (Alt) | Nishikori K. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 15 | Safiullin R. | Skatov T. | 2 : 0 |
| 16 | Malige M. (WC) | Choinski J. (2) | 0 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Gaston H. (1) | Smith K. | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Kouame M. | Zeppieri G. (RET.) (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Ofner S. (4) | Cassone M. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Rodionov J. | Krumich M. | 2 : 0 |
| 5 | Blanchet U. (8) | Chidekh C. | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Herbert P. | Virtanen O. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Budkov Kjaer N. (6) | Nishikori K. | 2 : 1 |
| 8 | Safiullin R. | Choinski J. (2) | 1 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Gaston H. (1) | Kouame M. | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Ofner S. (4) | Rodionov J. | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Blanchet U. (8) | Virtanen O. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Budkov Kjaer N. (6) | Choinski J. (2) | 2 : 0 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Gaston H. (1) | Ofner S. (4) | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Virtanen O. (3) | Budkov Kjaer N. (6) | 1 : 2 |
Final| 1 | Ofner S. (4) | Budkov Kjaer N. (6) | 2 : 1 |
