Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis WTA Roland Garros Aryna Sabalenka - Iga Swiatek
Result
2:1
05/06/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WTA - SINGLES: French Open, clay - Semi-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilESPN 2
bulgariaBulgariaMax
croatiaCroatiaMax
czech-republicCzech-republicMax
denmarkDenmarkEurosport 1, Eurosport 2, Max
finlandFinlandEurosport 1, Eurosport 2, Max
franceFranceFrance TV Rolan Garros, Max
hungaryHungaryMax
norwayNorwayMAX
polandPolandMax
romaniaRomaniaMax
serbiaSerbiaMax
sloveniaSloveniaMax
swedenSwedenMax
switzerlandSwitzerlandSRF 2, SRF 2
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomTNT Sports 1
usaUsaMax

Match Stats

Aces
31
Double Faults
24
1st Serve Percentage
57%57%
1st Serve Points Won
71% (37/52)53% (24/45)
2nd Serve Points Won
44% (17/39)35% (12/34)
Break Points Saved
45% (5/11)20% (2/10)
Average 1st Serve Speed
177 km/h173 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
149 km/h140 km/h
1st Return Points Won
47% (21/45)31% (16/52)
2nd Return Points Won
65% (22/34)56% (22/39)
Break Points Converted
80% (8/10)55% (6/11)
Winners
2929
Unforced Errors
2535
Net Points Won
50% (4/8)69% (11/16)
Service Points Won
59% (54/91)46% (36/79)
Return Points Won
54% (43/79)41% (37/91)
Total Points Won
57% (97/170)43% (73/170)
Last 10 Balls
91
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
57% (8/14)43% (6/14)
Return Games Won
57% (8/14)43% (6/14)
Total Games Won
57% (16/28)43% (12/28)

Chances of winning


Aryna Sabalenka
53.5%
Iga Swiatek
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
49.4% 50.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6% 54.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)
  • Iga Swiatek has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-7.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aryna Sabalenka that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iga Swiatek than the current prediction. (+7.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Iga Swiatek could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Aryna Sabalenka - Iga Swiatek Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.79
    (1.94)

    2.07
    (1.89)
    4.3%
    (4.5%)
    What is the prediction for Aryna Sabalenka - Iga Swiatek?
  • Users Predictions: 75 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 58 - 77.3%). Swiatek will win (votes: 17 - 22.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 67.8%86.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 19 high ROI users predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Swiatek (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Swiatek is ranked WTA: 5.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 2.
    • Both players have triumphed in their latest matches.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • We predict that Sabalenka will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 0.7:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Aryna Sabalenka - Iga Swiatek were as follows:
    18.08.2024 Iga Swiatek - Aryna Sabalenka 0:2
    18.05.2024 Iga Swiatek - Aryna Sabalenka 2:0
    04.05.2024 Iga Swiatek - Aryna Sabalenka 2:1
    23.12.2023 Iga Swiatek - Aryna Sabalenka 0:1
    05.11.2023 Aryna Sabalenka - Iga Swiatek 0:2
    Latest results of Aryna Sabalenka
    Latest results of Iga Swiatek
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Rakhimova K.2 : 0
    2Stefanini L. (Q)Teichmann J.0 : 2
    3Collins D.Burrage J.2 : 0
    4Danilovic O.Fernandez L. (27)2 : 0
    5Tauson C. (22)Linette M.2 : 1
    6Rus A.Osorio C.2 : 1
    7Kvitova P.Golubic V.1 : 2
    8Stojanovic N. (RET.) (Q)Anisimova A. (16)0 : 1
    9Shnaider D. (11)Sobolieva A. (Q)2 : 0
    10Yastremska D.Aiava D. (WC)2 : 0
    11Romero Gormaz L. (Q)Rakotomanga Rajaonah T. (WC)2 : 0
    12Sherif M.Samsonova L. (19)0 : 2
    13Stearns P. (28)Lys E.0 : 2
    14Mboko V. (Q)Sun L.2 : 0
    15Eala A.Arango E.1 : 2
    16Pavlyuchenkova A.Zheng Q. (8)0 : 2
    17Paolini J. (4)Yuan Y.2 : 1
    18Tomljanovic A.Joint M.2 : 0
    19Korpatsch T. (Q)Starodubtseva Y. (LL)1 : 2
    20Potapova A.Noskova L. (29)2 : 1
    21Vekic D. (18)Blinkova A.2 : 1
    22Garcia C.Pera B.0 : 2
    23Siegemund L.Bondar A.0 : 2
    24Sonmez Z.Svitolina E. (13)0 : 2
    25Rybakina E. (12)Riera J. (Q)2 : 1
    26Jovic I. (WC)Zarazua R.2 : 1
    27Dolehide C.Minnen G.2 : 1
    28Kudermetova P.Ostapenko J. (21)1 : 2
    29Kostyuk M. (26)Bejlek S. (Q)0 : 2
    30Cristian J.Birrell K.2 : 0
    31Raducanu E.Wang Xin.2 : 1
    32Sramkova R.Swiatek I. (5)0 : 2
    33Andreeva M. (6)Bucsa C.2 : 0
    34Lamens S.Krueger A.0 : 2
    35Volynets K.Garland J. (Q)1 : 2
    36Sierra S. (Q)Putintseva Y. (32)0 : 2
    37Kasatkina D. (17)Siniakova K.2 : 1
    38Jeanjean L. (WC)Begu I. (RET.)1 : 1
    39Ruse G.Kessler M.2 : 0
    40Osaka N.Badosa P. (10)1 : 2
    41Muchova K. (14)Parks A.1 : 2
    42Jacquemot E. (WC)Sakkari M.2 : 0
    43Avanesyan E.Kalinina A.0 : 2
    44Boisson L. (WC)Mertens E. (24)2 : 1
    45Frech M. (25)Jabeur O.2 : 0
    46Selekhmeteva O. (Q)Vondrousova M.0 : 2
    47Carle M. L. (Q)Li A.0 : 2
    48Todoni A. A.Pegula J. (3)0 : 2
    49Keys M. (7)Saville D. (Q)2 : 0
    50Monnet C. (Q)Boulter K.1 : 2
    51Wickmayer Y.Azarenka V.0 : 2
    52Gracheva V.Kenin S. (31)0 : 2
    53Haddad Maia B. (23)Baptiste H.1 : 2
    54Hibino N. (Q)Uchijima M.2 : 0
    55Parry D. (WC)Montgomery R.0 : 2
    56Bouzas Maneiro J.Navarro E. (9)2 : 0
    57Krejcikova B. (15)Maria T.2 : 0
    58Kudermetova V.Tomova V.2 : 0
    59Townsend T. (LL)Cocciaretto E.0 : 2
    60Bronzetti L.Alexandrova E. (20)0 : 2
    61Kalinskaya A. (30)Bouzkova M.0 : 2
    62Kartal S.Andreeva E.2 : 0
    63Paquet C. (WC)Valentova T. (Q)1 : 2
    64Gadecki O.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    1/32-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Teichmann J.2 : 0
    2Collins D.Danilovic O.1 : 2
    3Tauson C. (22)Rus A.2 : 0
    4Golubic V.Anisimova A. (16)0 : 2
    5Shnaider D. (11)Yastremska D.0 : 2
    6Romero Gormaz L.Samsonova L. (19)0 : 2
    7Lys E.Mboko V.0 : 2
    8Arango E.Zheng Q. (8)0 : 2
    9Paolini J. (4)Tomljanovic A.2 : 0
    10Starodubtseva Y.Potapova A.2 : 0
    11Vekic D. (18)Pera B.1 : 2
    12Bondar A.Svitolina E. (13)0 : 2
    13Rybakina E. (12)Jovic I.2 : 0
    14Dolehide C.Ostapenko J. (21)1 : 2
    15Bejlek S.Cristian J.1 : 2
    16Raducanu E.Swiatek I. (5)0 : 2
    17Andreeva M. (6)Krueger A.2 : 0
    18Garland J.Putintseva Y. (32)0 : 2
    19Kasatkina D. (17)Jeanjean L.2 : 0
    20Ruse G.Badosa P. (10)1 : 2
    21Parks A.Jacquemot E.1 : 2
    22Kalinina A.Boisson L.0 : 2
    23Frech M. (25)Vondrousova M.1 : 2
    24Li A.Pegula J. (3)0 : 2
    25Keys M. (7)Boulter K.2 : 0
    26Azarenka V.Kenin S. (31)0 : 2
    27Baptiste H.Hibino N.2 : 0
    28Montgomery R.Bouzas Maneiro J.1 : 2
    29Krejcikova B. (15)Kudermetova V.0 : 2
    30Cocciaretto E.Alexandrova E. (20)0 : 2
    31Bouzkova M.Kartal S.2 : 0
    32Valentova T.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Danilovic O.2 : 0
    2Tauson C. (22)Anisimova A. (16)0 : 2
    3Yastremska D.Samsonova L. (19)0 : 2
    4Mboko V.Zheng Q. (8)0 : 2
    5Paolini J. (4)Starodubtseva Y.2 : 0
    6Pera B.Svitolina E. (13)0 : 2
    7Rybakina E. (12)Ostapenko J. (21)2 : 0
    8Cristian J.Swiatek I. (5)0 : 2
    9Andreeva M. (6)Putintseva Y. (32)2 : 0
    10Kasatkina D. (17)Badosa P. (10)2 : 0
    11Jacquemot E.Boisson L.1 : 2
    12Vondrousova M.Pegula J. (3)1 : 2
    13Keys M. (7)Kenin S. (31)2 : 1
    14Baptiste H.Bouzas Maneiro J.2 : 0
    15Kudermetova V.Alexandrova E. (20)0 : 2
    16Bouzkova M.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Anisimova A. (16)2 : 0
    2Samsonova L. (19)Zheng Q. (8)1 : 2
    3Paolini J. (4)Svitolina E. (13)1 : 2
    4Rybakina E. (12)Swiatek I. (5)1 : 2
    5Andreeva M. (6)Kasatkina D. (17)2 : 0
    6Boisson L.Pegula J. (3)2 : 1
    7Keys M. (7)Baptiste H.2 : 0
    8Alexandrova E. (20)Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Zheng Q. (8)2 : 0
    2Svitolina E. (13)Swiatek I. (5)0 : 2
    3Andreeva M. (6)Boisson L.0 : 2
    4Keys M. (7)Gauff C. (2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Swiatek I. (5)2 : 1
    2Boisson L.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Gauff C. (2)1 : 2