Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/04/2025 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Match Stats


Aces
4	3
Double Faults
3	4
1st Serve Percentage
69%	54%
1st Serve Points Won
70% (30/43)	63% (24/38)
2nd Serve Points Won
42% (8/19)	47% (15/32)
Break Points Saved
43% (3/7)	33% (2/6)
1st Return Points Won
37% (14/38)	35% (15/43)
2nd Return Points Won
53% (17/32)	58% (11/19)
Break Points Converted
67% (4/6)	57% (4/7)
Service Points Won
58% (36/62)	57% (41/72)
Return Points Won
43% (31/72)	42% (26/62)
Total Points Won
50% (67/134)	50% (67/134)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
1	0
Service Games Won
64% (7/11)	67% (8/12)
Return Games Won
33% (4/12)	36% (4/11)
Total Games Won
48% (11/23)	52% (12/23)

Chances of winning

Madison Keys
28.7%

Iga Swiatek
71.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

71%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Iga Swiatek has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.16)		1.34 ↑ (1.29)	4.9% (9.2%)

What is the prediction for Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek?

Users Predictions: Madison Keys will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.12% – 98.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Madison Keys will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Keys is ranked WTA: 5. Swiatek is ranked WTA: 2.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Keys won 2.
Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.
Keys could have advantage in physical - more days for rest in last days.
In this match, Swiatek is a favorite.
Our prediction is that Swiatek will win today's game, with odds 1.33.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Keys won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9 (average 0.7:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Madison Keys won against Iga Swiatek?

Madison Keys has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Iga Swiatek won against Madison Keys?

Iga Swiatek has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek were as follows:

23.01.2025 Madison Keys - Iga Swiatek 2:1

14.05.2024 Iga Swiatek - Madison Keys 2:0

02.05.2024 Iga Swiatek - Madison Keys 2:0

Latest results of Madison Keys

29.04.2025 Madison Keys - Donna Vekic 2:0 ✺

26.04.2025 Madison Keys - Anna Kalinskaya 2:0 ✺

24.04.2025 Madison Keys - Lucia Bronzetti 2:0 ✺

03.04.2025 Anna Kalinskaya - Madison Keys 2:0 ✺

01.04.2025 Caroline Dolehide - Madison Keys 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Iga Swiatek

29.04.2025 Diana Shnaider - Iga Swiatek 1:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Linda Noskova - Iga Swiatek 0:2 ✺

24.04.2025 Alexandra Eala - Iga Swiatek 1:2 ✺

19.04.2025 Jelena Ostapenko - Iga Swiatek 2:1 ✺

16.04.2025 Jana Fett - Iga Swiatek 0:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bye
2	Blinkova A. (Q)	Udvardy P. (Q)	2 : 0
3	Arango E. (WC)	Osorio C.	0 : 2
4	Bye	Mertens E. (28)
5	Putintseva Y. (22)	Bye
6	Tomljanovic A. (WC)	Masarova R. (Q)	1 : 2
7	Stearns P.	Birrell K.	2 : 1
8	Bye	Anisimova A. (15)
9	Bucsa C. (LL)	Bye
10	Kudermetova V.	Kudermetova P.	2 : 0
11	Lamens S.	Raducanu E.	0 : 2
12	Bye	Kostyuk M. (24)
13	Kenin S. (32)	Bye
14	Sun L.	Gracheva V.	2 : 1
15	Krueger A.	Potapova A.	1 : 2
16	Bye	Zheng Q. (8)
17	Pegula J. (3)	Bye
18	Lys E.	Kostovic T. (Q)	2 : 0
19	Uchijima M.	Montgomery R. (WC)	2 : 1
20	Bye	Jabeur O. (26)
21	Alexandrova E. (21)	Bye
22	Azarenka V.	Danilovic O.	0 : 2
23	Parks A.	Jimenez Kasintseva V. (WC)	2 : 0
24	Bye	Kasatkina D. (14)
25	Rybakina E. (10)	Bye
26	Kessler M.	Andreescu B.	0 : 2
27	Cristian J.	Kartal S.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Svitolina E. (17)
29	Linette M. (29)	Bye
30	Wang Xin.	Sakkari M.	0 : 2
31	Boulter K.	Siniakova K.	2 : 1
32	Bye	Paolini J. (6)
33	Andreeva M. (7)	Bye
34	Zarazua R.	Bouzkova M.	1 : 2
35	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Sherif M.	2 : 0
36	Bye	Frech M. (27)
37	Samsonova L. (18)	Bye
38	Avanesyan E.	Dolehide C.	0 : 2
39	Starodubtseva Y. (Q)	Fruhvirtova L. (WC)	2 : 0
40	Bye	Cocciaretto E. (LL)
41	Haddad Maia B. (16)	Bye
42	Pera B. (LL)	Fett J. (Q)	2 : 0
43	Bencic B.	Sonmez Z. (Q)	2 : 0
44	Bye	Tauson C. (20)
45	Fernandez L. (25)	Bye
46	Sasnovich A. (Q)	Li A.	0 : 2
47	Jones F. (Q)	Yastremska D.	1 : 2
48	Bye	Gauff C. (4)
49	Keys M. (5)	Bye
50	Osaka N.	Bronzetti L.	1 : 2
51	Parry D. (Q)	Begu I.	2 : 0
52	Bye	Kalinskaya A. (30)
53	Vekic D. (19)	Bye
54	Cirstea S.	Baptiste H. (WC)	1 : 2
55	Joint M. (Q)	Martinez Cirez C. (WC)	2 : 1
56	Bye	Navarro E. (11)
57	Shnaider D. (13)	Bye
58	Volynets K.	Kvitova P.	2 : 0
59	Sevastova A.	Pavlyuchenkova A.	2 : 0
60	Bye	Ostapenko J. (23)
61	Noskova L. (31)	Bye
62	Carle M. L. (Q)	Sramkova R.	2 : 0
63	Tomova V.	Eala A. (WC)	0 : 2
64	Bye	Swiatek I. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Blinkova A.	2 : 0
2	Osorio C.	Mertens E. (28)	0 : 2
3	Putintseva Y. (22)	Masarova R.	0 : 2
4	Stearns P.	Anisimova A. (15)	2 : 1
5	Bucsa C.	Kudermetova V.	1 : 2
6	Raducanu E.	Kostyuk M. (24)	1 : 2
7	Kenin S. (32)	Sun L.	2 : 0
8	Potapova A.	Zheng Q. (8)	2 : 0
9	Pegula J. (3)	Lys E.	2 : 0
10	Uchijima M.	Jabeur O. (26)	2 : 1
11	Alexandrova E. (21)	Danilovic O.	2 : 0
12	Parks A.	Kasatkina D. (14)	0 : 2
13	Rybakina E. (10)	Andreescu B.	2 : 0
14	Kartal S.	Svitolina E. (17)	0 : 2
15	Linette M. (29)	Sakkari M.	0 : 2
16	Boulter K.	Paolini J. (6)	0 : 2
17	Andreeva M. (7)	Bouzkova M.	2 : 0
18	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Frech M. (27)	1 : 2
19	Samsonova L. (18)	Dolehide C.	2 : 0
20	Starodubtseva Y.	Cocciaretto E.	2 : 0
21	Haddad Maia B. (16)	Pera B.	2 : 1
22	Bencic B.	Tauson C. (20)	2 : 0
23	Fernandez L. (25)	Li A.	1 : 2
24	Yastremska D.	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
25	Keys M. (5)	Bronzetti L.	2 : 0
26	Parry D.	Kalinskaya A. (30)	0 : 2
27	Vekic D. (19)	Baptiste H.	2 : 0
28	Joint M.	Navarro E. (11)	0 : 2
29	Shnaider D. (13)	Volynets K.	2 : 0
30	Sevastova A.	Ostapenko J. (23)	2 : 0
31	Noskova L. (31)	Carle M. L.	2 : 0
32	Eala A.	Swiatek I. (2)	1 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Mertens E. (28)	2 : 1
2	Masarova R.	Stearns P.	0 : 2
3	Kudermetova V.	Kostyuk M. (24)	1 : 2
4	Kenin S. (32)	Potapova A.	1 : 2
5	Pegula J. (3)	Uchijima M.	0 : 2
6	Alexandrova E. (21)	Kasatkina D. (14)	2 : 0
7	Rybakina E. (10)	Svitolina E. (17)	0 : 2
8	Sakkari M.	Paolini J. (6)	2 : 0
9	Andreeva M. (7)	Frech M. (27)	2 : 0
10	Samsonova L. (18)	Starodubtseva Y.	1 : 2
11	Haddad Maia B. (16)	Bencic B.	1 : 2
12	Li A.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
13	Keys M. (5)	Kalinskaya A. (30)	2 : 0
14	Vekic D. (19)	Navarro E. (11)	2 : 1
15	Shnaider D. (13)	Sevastova A.	2 : 0
16	Noskova L. (31)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Stearns P.	2 : 0
2	Kostyuk M. (24)	Potapova A.	2 : 0
3	Uchijima M.	Alexandrova E. (21)	2 : 0
4	Svitolina E. (17)	Sakkari M.	2 : 0
5	Andreeva M. (7)	Starodubtseva Y.	2 : 0
6	Bencic B.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
7	Keys M. (5)	Vekic D. (19)	2 : 0
8	Shnaider D. (13)	Swiatek I. (2)	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Kostyuk M. (24)	2 : 0
2	Uchijima M.	Svitolina E. (17)	0 : 2
3	Andreeva M. (7)	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
4	Keys M. (5)	Swiatek I. (2)	1 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Svitolina E. (17)	2 : 0
2	Gauff C. (4)	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sabalenka A. (1)

Gauff C. (4)

2 : 0