Result
2:7
14/02/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Mineiro - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 2.80 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (292/340) | 93% (592/639) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 2.80 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 4.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (292/340) | 93% (592/639) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (26/48) | 70% (28/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (57/81) | 75% (83/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (8/20) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.03 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 8 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 65% (11/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 4.06 | 1.38 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -2.94 | -0.62 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 3)
- 17', 0 - 1, Victor Hugo ⚽, Natanael (A),
- 31', Pedro Rodrigues 🟨,
- 31', 0 - 2, Hulk ⚽,
- 44', 0 - 3, Gustavo Scarpa ⚽, Franco A. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 4)
- 46', Matheus Galdino ↓, Nathan Zamith ↑,
- 46', Givigi G. ↓, Victor Ferreira ↑,
- 46', Luis Araujo ↓, Hulk ↑,
- 52', 0 - 4, Hulk ⚽, Dudu (A),
- 54', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,
- 54', Maycon ↓, Reinier ↑,
- 59', Serginho 🟨,
- 61', 0 - 5, Hulk (Penalty Awarded),
- 68', Hulk ↓, Cassierra M. ↑,
- 68', Franco A. ↓, Minda A. ↑,
- 68', Gleisinho ↓, Denzel ↑,
- 72', 0 - 6, Cassierra M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 74', Pedro Rodrigues ↓, Mateus ↑,
- 76', 0 - 7, Lodi R. ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
- 77', Lodi R. ↓, Bernard ↑,
- 78', 1 - 7, Romario ⚽, Nathan Zamith (A),
- 82', Vitor Hugo 🟨,
- 87', 2 - 7, Mateus ⚽,
Chances of winning
Itabirito
10.5% | Draw
20.1% | Atlético Mineiro
69.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Itabirito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)The ML Model estimate for Itabirito aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
8.78 ↑
(8.32) |
4.6 ↑
(4.53) |
1.33 ↓
(1.33) |
8.4%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Itabirito may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Atlético MG is the undisputed favorite.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Itabirito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Itabirito won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Itabirito won against Atlético Mineiro?
Itabirito has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Itabirito?
Atlético Mineiro has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Itabirito - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
12.02.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
Itabirito
3:0
17.02.2024
Itabirito
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:2
Latest results of Itabirito
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Draw
Play OffsSemi-finals| 1 | Pouso Alegre | Cruzeiro | 0 : 1, 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Atletico-MG | America MG | 1 : 0, 1 : 1 |
Final
