Estonia vs Italy, FIFA World Cup – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football FIFA World Cup Estonia - Italy
Result
1:3
11/10/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • World Cup - Qualification
  • Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 3
brazilBrazilDisney+
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaiQIYI, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 4
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
czech-republicCzech-republicSport 2
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play
estoniaEstoniaETV 2, Soccernet TV
europeEuropeUEFA TV
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+
franceFranceL'Equipe, L'Equipe Live Foot
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hungaryHungaryMatch 4
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
israelIsrael5 SPORT Israel, Sport 4
italyItalyRAI 1, RaiPlay
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kenyaKenyaGotv
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 3
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 4
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport Select
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport LaLiga
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandPolsat Sport Premium 2
portugalPortugalSport TV3
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 2
sloveniaSloveniaSportKlub 4
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV, SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaTubi TV
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.972.29
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
224
Shots on target
19
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
08
Passes
74% (242/325)88% (506/577)
Yellow Cards
43
Expected Goals (xG)
0.972.29
xG on target (xGOT)
0.982.45
Total shots
224
Shots on target
19
Shots off target
18
Blocked Shots
07
Shots inside the Box
217
Shots outside the Box
07
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
08
Touches in opposition box
740
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
922
Passes
74% (242/325)88% (506/577)
Long passes
35% (18/52)56% (25/45)
Passes in final third
46% (26/57)70% (102/146)
Crosses
20% (1/5)50% (9/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.081.38
Throw-ins
1419
Fouls
229
Tackles
62% (8/13)42% (5/12)
Duels won
4052
Clearances
3913
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
60
xGOT faced
2.450.98
Goals prevented
-0.55-0.02

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 4', 0 - 1, Kean M. , Dimarco F. (A),
  • 12', Barella N. 🟨,
  • 15', Kean M. , Esposito F. ,
  • 29', Kuusk M. 🟨,
  • 30', Retegui M. (Pen),
  • 38', 0 - 2, Retegui M. , Orsolini R. (A),
  • 41', Palumets K. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Palumets K. , Schjonning-Larsen M. ,
  • 46', Saliste J. , Sinyavskiy V. ,
  • 59', Peetson R. 🟨,
  • 62', Orsolini R. , Cambiaso A. ,
  • 62', Raspadori G. , Spinazzola L. ,
  • 62', Tamm A. , Sappinen R. ,
  • 62', Kuusk M. , Mets K. ,
  • 72', Bastoni A. 🟨,
  • 74', 0 - 3, Esposito F. , Spinazzola L. (A),
  • 76', 1 - 3, Sappinen R. ,
  • 77', Barella N. , Frattesi D. ,
  • 78', Retegui M. , Cristante B. ,
  • 83', Shein R. R. , Mustmaa K. ,
  • 84', Cambiaso A. 🟨,
  • 87', Sinyavskiy V. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Estonia
3.1%
Draw
7.3%
Italy
89.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
4.4% 11.4% 84.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Italy's recent form is better than expected.
  • Estonia - Italy Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    31.89
    (21)
    12.84
    (8.2)
    1.08
    (1.11)
    3.5%
    (7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
    What is the prediction for Estonia - Italy?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 23 - 88.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 76.2%100%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +2.5 - Italy (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Italy will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.
  • Preview Facts
    • In this match, Italy is the clear favorite.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Estonia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:9. (average 0:4.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Estonia - Italy were as follows:
    05.09.2025 Italy - Estonia 5:0
    Latest results of Estonia
    09.09.2025 Estonia - Andorra 0:0
    05.09.2025 Italy - Estonia 5:0
    09.06.2025 Estonia - Norway 0:1
    06.06.2025 Estonia - Israel 1:3
    25.03.2025 Moldova - Estonia 2:3
    Latest results of Italy
    08.09.2025 Israel - Italy 4:5
    05.09.2025 Italy - Estonia 5:0
    09.06.2025 Italy - Moldova 2:0
    06.06.2025 Norway - Italy 3:0
    23.03.2025 Germany - Italy 3:3
    FIFA World Cup Table
    South America
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Argentina18122431:102138
    2Ecuador1888214:5929
    3Colombia1877428:181028
    4Uruguay1877422:121028
    5Brazil1884624:17728
    6Paraguay1877414:10428
    7Bolivia18621017:35-1820
    8Venezuela1846818:28-1018
    9Peru1826106:21-1512
    10Chile1825119:27-1811

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