Italy vs Slovenia, EuroBasket – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

07/09/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Xiaomi Arena (Riga).

EuroBasket - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	CT sport
Finland	Ruutu+
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hungary	M4 Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	TVP Sport
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
World	Court Side 1891

Match Stats


Field Goals Attempted
54	64
Field Goals Made
25	27
Field Goals %
46.3%	42.2%
2-Point Field G. Attempted
24	28
2-Point Field Goals Made
14	15
2-Point Field Goals %
58.3%	53.6%
3-Point Field G. Attempted
30	36
3-Point Field Goals Made
11	12
3-Point Field Goals %
36.7%	33.3%
Free Throws Attempted
23	22
Free Throws Made
16	18
Free Throws %
69.6%	81.8%
Offensive Rebounds
8	13
Defensive Rebounds
22	21
Total Rebounds
30	34
Assists
24	12
Blocks
0	0
Turnovers
14	14
Steals
9	7
Personal Fouls
24	22

Highlights

Chances of winning

Italy
58%

Slovenia
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Italy's form might have worsened.

Slovenia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Slovenia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Italy than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Italy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Slovenia than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Slovenia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Italy - Slovenia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.46)		2.29 ↓ (2.91)	4.7% (2.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 172.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

What is the prediction for Italy - Slovenia?

Users Predictions: Slovenia will win (44 of 50 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.99% – 97.01%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Slovenia will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 88:85.

Preview Facts

Italy is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Slovenia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Italy will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Italy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 384:431. (average 76.8:86.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Italy won against Slovenia?

Italy has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Slovenia won against Italy?

Slovenia has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Italy - Slovenia were as follows:

09.09.2023 Italy - Slovenia 85:89

Latest results of Italy

04.09.2025 Italy - Cyprus 89:54 ✺

02.09.2025 Italy - Spain 67:63 ✺

31.08.2025 Bosnia and Herzegovina - Italy 79:96 ✺

30.08.2025 Italy - Georgia 78:62 ✺

28.08.2025 Greece - Italy 75:66 ✺

Latest results of Slovenia

04.09.2025 Israel - Slovenia 96:106 ✺

02.09.2025 Iceland - Slovenia 79:87 ✺

31.08.2025 Slovenia - Belgium 86:69 ✺

30.08.2025 France - Slovenia 103:95 ✺

28.08.2025 Slovenia - Poland 95:105 ✺

Draw

Final tournament

1/8-finals

1	Lithuania (B2)	Latvia (A3)	88 : 79
2	Greece (C1)	Israel (D4)	84 : 79
3	Turkey (A1)	Sweden (B4)	85 : 79
4	Poland (D2)	Bosnia & Herzegovina (C3)	80 : 72
5	Germany (B1)	Portugal (A4)	85 : 58
6	Italy (C2)	Slovenia (D3)	77 : 84
7	Serbia (A2)	Finland (B3)	86 : 92
8	France (D1)	Georgia (C4)	70 : 80

Quarter-finals

1	Lithuania (B2)	Greece (C1)	76 : 87
2	Turkey (A1)	Poland (D2)	91 : 77
3	Germany (B1)	Slovenia (D3)	99 : 91
4	Finland (B3)	Georgia (C4)	93 : 79

Semi-finals

1	Greece (C1)	Turkey (A1)	68 : 94
2	Germany (B1)	Finland (B3)	98 : 86

Final

1

Turkey (A1)

Germany (B1)

83 : 88

3rd place

2

Greece (C1)

Finland (B3)

92 : 89