Jacareí vs Comercial SP – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:2
21/03/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Paulista A4 - Round 12

Match Stats

Red cards
10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 43', 1 - 0, ,
  • 45+1', 1 - 1, ,
  • 45+6', 1 - 2, ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 50', 🟥,

Chances of winning


Jacareí
43.8%
Draw
32.3%
Comercial SP
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.9% 30.2% 22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4% 29.9% 21.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Jacareí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
  • Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jacareí than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-2.1%)
  • Jacareí - Comercial SP Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.07
    (1.9)
    2.81
    (3.01)
    3.8
    (4.14)
    10.2%
    (10.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A4 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).
    • Jacareí is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Comercial SP has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Jacareí is a strong favorite.
    • The teams have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Jacareí
    18.03.2026 Lemense FC - Jacareí 0:0
    14.03.2026 Jacareí - Barretos 1:1
    07.03.2026 Tanabi - Jacareí 0:0
    28.02.2026 Taquaritinga - Jacareí 0:1
    Latest results of Comercial SP
    18.03.2026 Comercial SP - VOCEM 3:1
    14.03.2026 Araçatuba - Comercial SP 0:0
    07.03.2026 Comercial SP - Nacional SP 2:0
    28.02.2026 Comercial SP - Lemense FC 0:1
    Draw
    Play Offs

    Quarter-finals
    1Inter de Bebedouro (1)Lemense (8)2 : 0
    2Sao-Carlense (4)Barretos EC (5)1 : 1
    3Sao Caetano (2)Jacarei FC (7)0 : 0
    4Penapolense (3)Taquaritinga (6)1 : 1