Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:0
08/07/2026 at 08:35 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WTA - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - Quarter-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
czech-republicCzech-republicHBO Max

Match Stats

Aces
30
Double Faults
31
1st serve percentage
52%66%
1st serve points won
91% (21/23)60% (26/43)
2nd serve points won
67% (14/21)41% (9/22)
Break Points Saved
0/04/8
Average 1st serve speed
174 km/h154 km/h
Average 2nd serve speed
147 km/h132 km/h
1st return points won
40% (17/43)26% (6/23)
2nd return points won
59% (13/22)33% (7/21)
Break Points Converted
4/80/0
Winners
198
Unforced errors
1926
Net points won
83% (10/12)67% (8/12)
Service Points Won
79% (33/42)54% (35/65)
Return Points Won
46% (30/65)21% (9/42)
Total Points Won
59% (63/107)41% (44/107)
Last 10 balls
73
Match points saved
01
Service games won
100% (8/8)56% (5/9)
Return games won
44% (4/9)0% (0/8)
Total games won
71% (12/17)29% (5/17)
Distance covered (metres)
1004881

Chances of winning


Marta Kostyuk
69.1%
Jasmine Paolini
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.3% 38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9% 41.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Marta Kostyuk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Marta Kostyuk's performance.
  • Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jasmine Paolini might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Marta Kostyuk that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jasmine Paolini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Marta Kostyuk - Jasmine Paolini Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.39
    (1.55)

    3.09
    (2.45)
    4.2%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 21.50
    What is the prediction for Marta Kostyuk - Jasmine Paolini?
  • Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Kostyuk will win (votes: 14 - 48.3%). Paolini will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Paolini: 33.5%69.9%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +1.5 Sets - Paolini (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.45) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 19.5 Games - over (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paolini (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 13. Paolini is ranked WTA: 17.
    • Right now, both players are showing solid form.
    • In this match, Kostyuk is the team to beat.
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kostyuk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Marta Kostyuk - Jasmine Paolini were as follows:
    14.08.2023 Jasmine Paolini - Marta Kostyuk 2:0
    10.10.2022 Jasmine Paolini - Marta Kostyuk 2:1
    Latest results of Marta Kostyuk
    Latest results of Jasmine Paolini
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Kostovic T. (Q)2 : 0
    2Oliynykova O.Kessler M.0 : 2
    3Ostapenko J.Dart H. (WC)2 : 1
    4Ruzic A.Semenistaja D. (LL)2 : 1
    5Fernandez L. (22)Tjen J.0 : 2
    6Xu M. (WC)Kasatkina D.1 : 2
    7Gasanova A. (Q)Arango E.2 : 0
    8Jacquemot E.Osaka N. (14)0 : 2
    9Muchova K. (10)Zakharova A.2 : 0
    10Andreescu B. (Q)Zhang S.0 : 2
    11Parks A.Dudeney A. (WC)2 : 0
    12Sawangkaew M. (Q)Chwalinska M. (20)2 : 1
    13Siniakova K. (32)Zheng Q.2 : 0
    14Stearns P.Bartunkova N.1 : 2
    15Krejcikova B.Klugman H. (WC)2 : 0
    16Linette M.Andreeva M. (5)0 : 2
    17Pegula J. (4)Vidmanova D.2 : 0
    18Sorribes Tormo S.Jimenez Kasintseva V.2 : 0
    19Yastremska D.Ito A.2 : 1
    20Bouzas Maneiro J.Potapova A. (27)2 : 0
    21Alexandrova E. (18)Udvardy P.2 : 0
    22Tararudee L.Tagger L.2 : 1
    23Putintseva Y.Maria T.0 : 2
    24Cristian J.Jovic I. (16)0 : 2
    25Bencic B. (11)Stojsavljevic M. (WC)2 : 0
    26Wang Xin.Cocciaretto E.2 : 1
    27Jones F.Parry D.0 : 2
    28Frech M.Kalinskaya A. (19)0 : 2
    29Li A. (28)Sonmez Z.1 : 2
    30Liu C. (Q)Vandewinkel H.2 : 1
    31Sierra S.Bondar A.2 : 1
    32Korpatsch T.Gauff C. (7)0 : 2
    33Svitolina E. (8)Snigur D.0 : 2
    34Erjavec V.Jeanjean L. (Q)1 : 2
    35Tomljanovic A.Bolkvadze M. (Q)1 : 2
    36Krueger A. (Q)Vekic D. (31)2 : 1
    37Navarro E. (23)Badosa P.2 : 1
    38Selekhmeteva O.Kraus S.2 : 0
    39Starodubtseva Y.Blinkova A.1 : 2
    40Podoroska N.Kostyuk M. (12)0 : 2
    41Paolini J. (13)Montgomery R. (Q)2 : 1
    42Shymanovich I. (Q)Golubic V.1 : 2
    43Kalinina A.Rakhimova K.1 : 2
    44Sakkari M.Tauson C. (24)2 : 0
    45Eala A. (29)Zarazua R.2 : 0
    46Williams S. (WC)Joint M.1 : 2
    47Valentova T.Pliskova Ka.0 : 2
    48Townsend T.Swiatek I. (3)1 : 2
    49Anisimova A. (6)Gjorcheska L. (Q)2 : 0
    50Marcinko P.Kenin S.0 : 2
    51Begu I.Swan K. (WC)0 : 2
    52Day K. (Q)Keys M. (26)1 : 2
    53Cirstea S. (17)Bejlek S.2 : 0
    54Birrell K.Korneeva A. (Q)2 : 1
    55Osorio C.Waltert S.2 : 0
    56Seidel E.Noskova L. (9)0 : 2
    57Shnaider D. (15)Lys E.2 : 0
    58Kudermetova P. (Q)Samsonova L.0 : 2
    59Boulter K.Grant T. C. (Q)0 : 2
    60Gibson T.Bouzkova M. (21)1 : 2
    61Mertens E. (25)Siegemund L.2 : 0
    62Haddad Maia B.Timofeeva M. (Q)0 : 2
    63Ruse G.McNally C.0 : 2
    64Boisson L.Rybakina E. (2)1 : 2

    1/32-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Kessler M.2 : 0
    2Ostapenko J.Ruzic A.2 : 0
    3Tjen J.Kasatkina D.1 : 2
    4Gasanova A.Osaka N. (14)0 : 2
    5Muchova K. (10)Zhang S.2 : 0
    6Parks A.Sawangkaew M.0 : 2
    7Siniakova K. (32)Bartunkova N.0 : 2
    8Krejcikova B.Andreeva M. (5)2 : 1
    9Pegula J. (4)Sorribes Tormo S.2 : 0
    10Yastremska D.Bouzas Maneiro J.1 : 2
    11Alexandrova E. (18)Tararudee L.2 : 0
    12Maria T.Jovic I. (16)0 : 2
    13Bencic B. (11)Wang Xin.2 : 0
    14Parry D.Kalinskaya A. (19)1 : 2
    15Sonmez Z.Liu C.0 : 2
    16Sierra S.Gauff C. (7)1 : 2
    17Snigur D.Jeanjean L.2 : 0
    18Bolkvadze M.Krueger A.0 : 2
    19Navarro E. (23)Selekhmeteva O.2 : 1
    20Blinkova A.Kostyuk M. (12)1 : 2
    21Paolini J. (13)Golubic V.2 : 0
    22Rakhimova K.Sakkari M.1 : 2
    23Eala A. (29)Joint M.2 : 1
    24Pliskova Ka.Swiatek I. (3)0 : 2
    25Anisimova A. (6)Kenin S.2 : 1
    26Swan K.Keys M. (26)0 : 2
    27Cirstea S. (17)Birrell K.2 : 0
    28Osorio C.Noskova L. (9)1 : 2
    29Shnaider D. (15)Samsonova L.1 : 2
    30Grant T. C.Bouzkova M. (21)0 : 2
    31Mertens E. (25)Timofeeva M.2 : 1
    32McNally C.Rybakina E. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Ostapenko J.2 : 0
    2Kasatkina D.Osaka N. (14)0 : 2
    3Muchova K. (10)Sawangkaew M.2 : 0
    4Bartunkova N.Krejcikova B.0 : 2
    5Pegula J. (4)Bouzas Maneiro J.2 : 0
    6Alexandrova E. (18)Jovic I. (16)1 : 2
    7Bencic B. (11)Kalinskaya A. (19)2 : 1
    8Liu C.Gauff C. (7)1 : 2
    9Snigur D.Krueger A.0 : 2
    10Navarro E. (23)Kostyuk M. (12)1 : 2
    11Paolini J. (13)Sakkari M.2 : 0
    12Eala A. (29)Swiatek I. (3)2 : 0
    13Anisimova A. (6)Keys M. (26)1 : 2
    14Cirstea S. (17)Noskova L. (9)1 : 2
    15Samsonova L.Bouzkova M. (21)1 : 2
    16Mertens E. (25)Rybakina E. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Osaka N. (14)0 : 2
    2Muchova K. (10)Krejcikova B.2 : 1
    3Pegula J. (4)Jovic I. (16)2 : 1
    4Bencic B. (11)Gauff C. (7)1 : 2
    5Krueger A.Kostyuk M. (12)0 : 2
    6Paolini J. (13)Eala A. (29)2 : 1
    7Keys M. (26)Noskova L. (9)0 : 2
    8Bouzkova M. (21)Mertens E. (25)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Osaka N. (14)Muchova K. (10)0 : 2
    2Pegula J. (4)Gauff C. (7)1 : 2
    3Kostyuk M. (12)Paolini J. (13)2 : 0
    4Noskova L. (9)Mertens E. (25)2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Muchova K. (10)Gauff C. (7)2 : 1
    2Kostyuk M. (12)Noskova L. (9)0 : 2

    Final
    1Muchova K. (10)Noskova L. (9)1 : 2