Jelena Ostapenko vs Jasmine Paolini – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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WTA - SINGLES: Miami, hard - 1/16-finals

Match Stats


Aces
12	8
Double Faults
7	4
1st serve percentage
61%	67%
1st serve points won
66% (39/59)	51% (41/80)
2nd serve points won
39% (15/38)	45% (18/40)
Break Points Saved
3/9	10/18
1st return points won
49% (39/80)	34% (20/59)
2nd return points won
55% (22/40)	61% (23/38)
Break Points Converted
8/18	6/9
Service Points Won
56% (54/97)	49% (59/120)
Return Points Won
51% (61/120)	44% (43/97)
Total Points Won
53% (115/217)	47% (102/217)
Last 10 balls
7	3
Match points saved
0	2
Service games won
63% (10/16)	50% (8/16)
Return games won
50% (8/16)	38% (6/16)
Total games won
56% (18/32)	44% (14/32)

Chances of winning

Jelena Ostapenko
42.6%

Jasmine Paolini
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

60.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

58.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelena Ostapenko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Jasmine Paolini has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelena Ostapenko than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jasmine Paolini than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.38)		1.67 ↑ (1.57)	4.7% (5.7%)

What is the prediction for Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini?

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ostapenko will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Paolini will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Paolini (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Ostapenko is ranked WTA: 24. Paolini is ranked WTA: 7.
Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.
Paolini may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Paolini could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ostapenko won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Jelena Ostapenko won against Jasmine Paolini?

Jelena Ostapenko has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jasmine Paolini won against Jelena Ostapenko?

Jasmine Paolini has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini were as follows:

12.05.2025 Jasmine Paolini - Jelena Ostapenko 2:0

12.02.2025 Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini 2:0

28.08.2023 Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini 2:1

Latest results of Jelena Ostapenko

20.03.2026 Jelena Ostapenko - Dayana Yastremska 2:0 ✺

09.03.2026 Jessica Pegula - Jelena Ostapenko 2:1 ✺

07.03.2026 Katie Volynets - Jelena Ostapenko 0:2 ✺

16.02.2026 Jelena Ostapenko - Anna Kalinskaya 1:2 ✺

13.02.2026 Jelena Ostapenko - Victoria Mboko 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Jasmine Paolini

20.03.2026 Taylor Townsend - Jasmine Paolini 1:2 ✺

10.03.2026 Talia Gibson - Jasmine Paolini 2:1 ✺

08.03.2026 Ajla Tomljanovic - Jasmine Paolini 1:2 ✺

06.03.2026 Anastasia Potapova - Jasmine Paolini 1:2 ✺

28.02.2026 Jasmine Paolini - Cristina Bucsa 0:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bye
2	Li A.	Birrell K. (Q)	2 : 1
3	McNally C.	Masarova R. (Q)	2 : 0
4	Bye	Wang Xin. (29)
5	Zheng Q. (23)	Bye
6	Brady J. (WC)	Stephens S. (WC)	0 : 2
7	Ruse G.	Ruzic A.	2 : 0
8	Bye	Keys M. (15)
9	Svitolina E. (9)	Bye
10	Jones E. (WC)	Fruhvirtova L. (Q)	2 : 1
11	Baptiste H.	Maria T.	2 : 0
12	Bye	Samsonova L. (19)
13	Ostapenko J. (25)	Bye
14	Yastremska D.	Krueger A. (WC)	2 : 1
15	Sun L. (Q)	Townsend T. (WC)	0 : 2
16	Bye	Paolini J. (7)
17	Rybakina E. (3)	Bye
18	Tjen J.	Putintseva Y.	1 : 2
19	Sierra S.	Rakhimova K. (LL)	0 : 2
20	Bye	Kostyuk M. (27)
21	Jovic I. (18)	Bye
22	Badosa P.	Sasnovich A. (Q)	2 : 0
23	Bejlek S.	Gibson T. (Q)	0 : 2
24	Bye	Osaka N. (16)
25	Alexandrova E. (11)	Bye
26	Tagger L. (WC)	Seidel E. (LL)	2 : 1
27	Golubic V. (Q)	Stearns P.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Cristian J. (34)
29	Fernandez L. (26)	Bye
30	Arango E.	Selekhmeteva O.	1 : 2
31	Jones F.	Williams V. (WC)	2 : 0
32	Bye	Pegula J. (5)
33	Anisimova A. (6)	Bye
34	Waltert S.	Tomljanovic A.	0 : 2
35	Lys E.	Starodubtseva Y. (Q)	0 : 2
36	Bye	Bucsa C. (30)
37	Shnaider D. (20)	Bye
38	Valentova T.	Volynets K. (Q)	2 : 0
39	Sonmez Z.	Haddad Maia B.	2 : 0
40	Bye	Bencic B. (12)
41	Noskova L. (14)	Bye
42	Zhang S.	Cirstea S.	0 : 2
43	Galfi D. (Alt)	Kalieva E. (Q)	1 : 2
44	Bye	Mertens E. (21)
45	Sakkari M. (33)	Bye
46	Parks A.	Kraus S. (Q)	2 : 0
47	Semenistaja D. (LL)	Cocciaretto E.	0 : 2
48	Bye	Gauff C. (4)
49	Andreeva M. (8)	Bye
50	Kessler M.	Frech M.	2 : 1
51	Vidmanova D. (WC)	Jacquemot E.	1 : 2
52	Bye	Bouzkova M. (32)
53	Kalinskaya A. (22)	Bye
54	Zakharova A. (Q)	Bondar A.	2 : 1
55	Kenin S.	Blinkova A.	1 : 2
56	Bye	Mboko V. (10)
57	Muchova K. (13)	Bye
58	Siniakova K.	Osorio C.	0 : 2
59	Boulter K.	Bouzas Maneiro J.	2 : 0
60	Bye	Tauson C. (17)
61	Eala A. (31)	Bye
62	Siegemund L.	Marcinko P.	2 : 0
63	Linette M.	Gracheva V.	2 : 1
64	Bye	Swiatek I. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Li A.	2 : 0
2	McNally C.	Wang Xin. (29)	2 : 1
3	Zheng Q. (23)	Stephens S.	2 : 0
4	Ruse G.	Keys M. (15)	0 : 2
5	Svitolina E. (9)	Jones E.	2 : 0
6	Baptiste H.	Samsonova L. (19)	2 : 0
7	Ostapenko J. (25)	Yastremska D.	2 : 0
8	Townsend T.	Paolini J. (7)	1 : 2
9	Rybakina E. (3)	Putintseva Y.	2 : 0
10	Rakhimova K.	Kostyuk M. (27)	0 : 2
11	Jovic I. (18)	Badosa P.	2 : 0
12	Gibson T.	Osaka N. (16)	2 : 0
13	Alexandrova E. (11)	Tagger L.	2 : 0
14	Stearns P.	Cristian J. (34)	0 : 2
15	Fernandez L. (26)	Selekhmeteva O.	2 : 1
16	Jones F. (RET.)	Pegula J. (5)	0 : 1
17	Anisimova A. (6)	Tomljanovic A.	2 : 1
18	Starodubtseva Y.	Bucsa C. (RET.) (30)	1 : 0
19	Shnaider D. (20)	Valentova T.	2 : 0
20	Sonmez Z.	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
21	Noskova L. (14)	Cirstea S.	1 : 2
22	Kalieva E.	Mertens E. (21)	0 : 2
23	Sakkari M. (33)	Parks A.	0 : 2
24	Cocciaretto E.	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
25	Andreeva M. (8)	Kessler M.	2 : 1
26	Jacquemot E.	Bouzkova M. (32)	0 : 2
27	Kalinskaya A. (22)	Zakharova A.	1 : 2
28	Blinkova A.	Mboko V. (10)	0 : 2
29	Muchova K. (13)	Osorio C.	2 : 1
30	Boulter K.	Tauson C. (RET.) (17)	1 : 1
31	Eala A. (31)	Siegemund L.	2 : 1
32	Linette M.	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 1

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	McNally C.	2 : 0
2	Zheng Q. (23)	Keys M. (15)	2 : 1
3	Svitolina E. (9)	Baptiste H.	0 : 2
4	Ostapenko J. (25)	Paolini J. (7)	2 : 1
5	Rybakina E. (3)	Kostyuk M. (27)	2 : 0
6	Jovic I. (18)	Gibson T.	0 : 2
7	Alexandrova E. (11)	Cristian J. (34)	1 : 2
8	Fernandez L. (26)	Pegula J. (5)	0 : 2
9	Anisimova A. (6)	Starodubtseva Y.	2 : 0
10	Shnaider D. (20)	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
11	Cirstea S.	Mertens E. (21)	2 : 0
12	Parks A.	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
13	Andreeva M. (8)	Bouzkova M. (32)	2 : 0
14	Zakharova A.	Mboko V. (10)	0 : 2
15	Muchova K. (13)	Boulter K.	2 : 0
16	Eala A. (31)	Linette M.	2 : 0

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Zheng Q. (23)	2 : 0
2	Baptiste H.	Ostapenko J. (25)	2 : 0
3	Rybakina E. (3)	Gibson T.	2 : 0
4	Cristian J. (34)	Pegula J. (5)	0 : 2
5	Anisimova A. (6)	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
6	Cirstea S.	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
7	Andreeva M. (8)	Mboko V. (10)	1 : 2
8	Muchova K. (13)	Eala A. (31)	2 : 0

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Baptiste H.	2 : 0
2	Rybakina E. (3)	Pegula J. (5)	2 : 1
3	Bencic B. (12)	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
4	Mboko V. (10)	Muchova K. (13)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Rybakina E. (3)	2 : 0
2	Gauff C. (4)	Muchova K. (13)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sabalenka A. (1)

Gauff C. (4)

2 : 1