Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

12/03/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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WTA - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - Quarter-finals

Match Stats


Aces
5	7
Double Faults
0	2
1st serve percentage
56%	65%
1st serve points won
69% (22/32)	75% (38/51)
2nd serve points won
56% (14/25)	48% (13/27)
Break Points Saved
1/4	4/5
1st return points won
25% (13/51)	31% (10/32)
2nd return points won
52% (14/27)	44% (11/25)
Break Points Converted
1/5	3/4
Service Points Won
63% (36/57)	65% (51/78)
Return Points Won
35% (27/78)	37% (21/57)
Total Points Won
47% (63/135)	53% (72/135)
Last 10 balls
3	7
Match points saved
0	0
Service games won
67% (6/9)	90% (9/10)
Return games won
10% (1/10)	33% (3/9)
Total games won
37% (7/19)	63% (12/19)

Chances of winning

Jessica Pegula
37.8%

Elena Rybakina
62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

63.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Jessica Pegula have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Elena Rybakina have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (+1%)

Jessica Pegula - Elena Rybakina Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.51)		1.54 ↑ (1.53)	4.4% (5.3%)

What is the prediction for Jessica Pegula - Elena Rybakina?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Pegula will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Rybakina will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rybakina: 35.2% – 92%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Pegula (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Rybakina (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Pegula is ranked WTA: 5. Rybakina is ranked WTA: 3.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 1.
Pegula is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Rybakina is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Rybakina might have a minor edge in this game.
We predict that Rybakina will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Pegula won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Jessica Pegula won against Elena Rybakina?

Jessica Pegula has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Elena Rybakina won against Jessica Pegula?

Elena Rybakina has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jessica Pegula - Elena Rybakina were as follows:

29.01.2026 Jessica Pegula - Elena Rybakina 0:2

07.11.2025 Jessica Pegula - Elena Rybakina 1:2

18.09.2025 Elena Rybakina - Jessica Pegula 2:0

29.10.2023 Elena Rybakina - Jessica Pegula 0:2

30.03.2023 Elena Rybakina - Jessica Pegula 0:0

Latest results of Jessica Pegula

11.03.2026 Jessica Pegula - Belinda Bencic 2:0 ✺

09.03.2026 Jessica Pegula - Jelena Ostapenko 2:1 ✺

07.03.2026 Jessica Pegula - Donna Vekic 2:1 ✺

24.02.2026 Jessica Pegula - Rebecca Sramkova Canceled ✺

21.02.2026 Elina Svitolina - Jessica Pegula 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Elena Rybakina

11.03.2026 Sonay Kartal - Elena Rybakina Kartal S. retired ✺

10.03.2026 Marta Kostyuk - Elena Rybakina 0:2 ✺

07.03.2026 Hailey Baptiste - Elena Rybakina 1:2 ✺

18.02.2026 Elena Rybakina - Antonia Ruzic Rybakina E. retired ✺

17.02.2026 Elena Rybakina - Kimberly Birrell 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bye
2	Sakatsume H. (Q)	Parks A. (WC)	2 : 0
3	Cristian J.	Tjen J.	2 : 1
4	Bye	Joint M. (29)
5	Jovic I. (18)	Bye
6	Stephens S. (WC)	Osorio C.	0 : 2
7	Jimenez Kasintseva V. (Q)	McNally C.	2 : 1
8	Bye	Osaka N. (16)
9	Mboko V. (10)	Bye
10	Birrell K.	Selekhmeteva O.	2 : 0
11	Sonmez Z.	Kessler M.	2 : 0
12	Bye	Kalinskaya A. (23)
13	Raducanu E. (25)	Bye
14	Seidel E.	Zakharova A. (Q)	0 : 2
15	Galfi D. (LL)	Blinkova A.	0 : 2
16	Bye	Anisimova A. (6)
17	Gauff C. (4)	Bye
18	Andreescu B. (WC)	Rakhimova K. (Q)	1 : 2
19	Yastremska D.	Zhang S.	2 : 0
20	Bye	Eala A. (31)
21	Shnaider D. (21)	Bye
22	Cirstea S.	Maria T.	2 : 1
23	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Haddad Maia B.	2 : 1
24	Bye	Noskova L. (14)
25	Alexandrova E. (11)	Bye
26	Gibson T. (Q)	Li A.	2 : 0
27	Putintseva Y.	Badosa P.	2 : 0
28	Bye	Tauson C. (17)
29	Wang Xin. (30)	Bye
30	Tomljanovic A.	Ruse G.	2 : 0
31	Potapova A.	Stakusic M. (Q)	2 : 1
32	Bye	Paolini J. (7)
33	Pegula J. (5)	Bye
34	Vekic D. (WC)	Valentova T.	2 : 0
35	Volynets K. (WC)	Sramkova R. (RET.)	1 : 0
36	Bye	Ostapenko J. (26)
37	Mertens E. (22)	Bye
38	Bucsa C.	Vidmanova D. (Q)	2 : 0
39	Hunter S. (Q)	Frech M.	2 : 1
40	Bye	Bencic B. (12)
41	Keys M. (15)	Bye
42	Parry D. (Q)	Williams V. (WC)	2 : 1
43	Tararudee L. (Q)	Kartal S.	0 : 2
44	Bye	Navarro E. (20)
45	Kostyuk M. (28)	Bye
46	Bouzkova M.	Townsend T. (Q)	0 : 2
47	Arango E.	Baptiste H.	1 : 2
48	Bye	Rybakina E. (3)
49	Andreeva M. (8)	Bye
50	Stearns P.	Sierra S.	0 : 2
51	Siniakova K.	Kenin S.	2 : 1
52	Bye	Fernandez L. (27)
53	Samsonova L. (19)	Bye
54	Linette M.	Krueger A.	0 : 2
55	Siegemund L.	Marcinko P.	2 : 1
56	Bye	Svitolina E. (9)
57	Muchova K. (13)	Bye
58	Jacquemot E.	Bondar A.	0 : 2
59	Ruzic A.	Brady J. (WC)	2 : 1
60	Bye	Zheng Q. (24)
61	Sakkari M. (32)	Bye
62	Gracheva V.	Tagger L. (WC)	0 : 2
63	Jones F.	Day K. (Q)	0 : 2
64	Bye	Swiatek I. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Sakatsume H.	2 : 0
2	Cristian J.	Joint M. (29)	2 : 1
3	Jovic I. (18)	Osorio C.	1 : 2
4	Jimenez Kasintseva V.	Osaka N. (16)	0 : 2
5	Mboko V. (10)	Birrell K.	2 : 0
6	Sonmez Z.	Kalinskaya A. (23)	0 : 2
7	Raducanu E. (25)	Zakharova A.	2 : 0
8	Blinkova A.	Anisimova A. (6)	1 : 2
9	Gauff C. (4)	Rakhimova K.	2 : 0
10	Yastremska D.	Eala A. (31)	1 : 2
11	Shnaider D. (21)	Cirstea S.	0 : 2
12	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Noskova L. (14)	0 : 2
13	Alexandrova E. (11)	Gibson T.	0 : 2
14	Putintseva Y.	Tauson C. (17)	0 : 2
15	Wang Xin. (30)	Tomljanovic A.	0 : 2
16	Potapova A.	Paolini J. (7)	1 : 2
17	Pegula J. (5)	Vekic D.	2 : 1
18	Volynets K.	Ostapenko J. (26)	0 : 2
19	Mertens E. (22)	Bucsa C.	2 : 0
20	Hunter S.	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
21	Keys M. (15)	Parry D.	2 : 0
22	Kartal S.	Navarro E. (20)	2 : 1
23	Kostyuk M. (28)	Townsend T.	2 : 0
24	Baptiste H.	Rybakina E. (3)	1 : 2
25	Andreeva M. (8)	Sierra S.	2 : 0
26	Siniakova K.	Fernandez L. (27)	2 : 1
27	Samsonova L. (19)	Krueger A.	1 : 2
28	Siegemund L.	Svitolina E. (9)	1 : 2
29	Muchova K. (13)	Bondar A.	2 : 0
30	Ruzic A.	Zheng Q. (24)	2 : 0
31	Sakkari M. (32)	Tagger L.	2 : 0
32	Day K.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Cristian J.	2 : 0
2	Osorio C.	Osaka N. (16)	1 : 2
3	Mboko V. (10)	Kalinskaya A. (23)	2 : 0
4	Raducanu E. (25)	Anisimova A. (6)	0 : 2
5	Gauff C. (RET.) (4)	Eala A. (31)	0 : 1
6	Cirstea S.	Noskova L. (14)	1 : 2
7	Gibson T.	Tauson C. (17)	2 : 1
8	Tomljanovic A.	Paolini J. (7)	1 : 2
9	Pegula J. (5)	Ostapenko J. (26)	2 : 1
10	Mertens E. (22)	Bencic B. (12)	0 : 2
11	Keys M. (15)	Kartal S.	1 : 2
12	Kostyuk M. (28)	Rybakina E. (3)	0 : 2
13	Andreeva M. (8)	Siniakova K.	1 : 2
14	Krueger A.	Svitolina E. (9)	0 : 2
15	Muchova K. (13)	Ruzic A.	2 : 0
16	Sakkari M. (32)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Osaka N. (16)	2 : 0
2	Mboko V. (10)	Anisimova A. (6)	2 : 0
3	Eala A. (31)	Noskova L. (14)	0 : 2
4	Gibson T.	Paolini J. (7)	2 : 1
5	Pegula J. (5)	Bencic B. (12)	2 : 0
6	Kartal S. (RET.)	Rybakina E. (3)	0 : 1
7	Siniakova K. (RET.)	Svitolina E. (9)	0 : 1
8	Muchova K. (13)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Mboko V. (10)	2 : 0
2	Noskova L. (14)	Gibson T.	2 : 1
3	Pegula J. (5)	Rybakina E. (3)	0 : 2
4	Svitolina E. (9)	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 1

Semi-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Noskova L. (14)	2 : 0
2	Rybakina E. (3)	Svitolina E. (9)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sabalenka A. (1)

Rybakina E. (3)

2 : 1