Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

01/10/2025 at 10:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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WTA - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/8-finals
Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Slovakia	Voyo
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis

Match Stats


Aces
1	0
Double Faults
6	4
1st Serve Percentage
66%	52%
1st Serve Points Won
54% (39/72)	67% (33/49)
2nd Serve Points Won
41% (15/37)	51% (23/45)
Break Points Saved
38% (5/13)	63% (5/8)
1st Return Points Won
33% (16/49)	46% (33/72)
2nd Return Points Won
49% (22/45)	59% (22/37)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)	62% (8/13)
Service Points Won
50% (54/109)	60% (56/94)
Return Points Won
40% (38/94)	50% (55/109)
Total Points Won
45% (92/203)	55% (111/203)
Last 10 Balls
2	8
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
47% (7/15)	77% (10/13)
Return Games Won
23% (3/13)	53% (8/15)
Total Games Won
36% (10/28)	64% (18/28)

Chances of winning

Marta Kostyuk
37.7%

Jessica Pegula
62.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

64.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marta Kostyuk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.3)		1.56 ↑ (1.52)	3% (9.3%)

What is the prediction for Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Kostyuk will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Pegula will win (votes: 8 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kostyuk: 25.5% – 74.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Kostyuk (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 28. Pegula is ranked WTA: 7.
Kostyuk is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Pegula has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Kostyuk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Pegula could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kostyuk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Marta Kostyuk won against Jessica Pegula?

Marta Kostyuk has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jessica Pegula won against Marta Kostyuk?

Jessica Pegula has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula were as follows:

24.03.2025 Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula 0:2

02.03.2024 Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk 0:2

19.01.2023 Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk 2:0

Latest results of Marta Kostyuk

29.09.2025 Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Marta Kostyuk 0:2 ✺

27.09.2025 Ella Seidel - Marta Kostyuk 0:2 ✺

19.09.2025 Elisabaetta Cocciaretto - Marta Kostyuk 0:2 ✺

17.09.2025 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro - Marta Kostyuk 0:2 ✺

01.09.2025 Marta Kostyuk - Karolina Muchova 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Jessica Pegula

29.09.2025 Emma Raducanu - Jessica Pegula 1:2 ✺

27.09.2025 Ajla Tomljanovic - Jessica Pegula 0:2 ✺

21.09.2025 Jasmine Paolini - Jessica Pegula 2:0 ✺

20.09.2025 Jessica Pegula - Katie Boulter 2:1 ✺

18.09.2025 Elena Rybakina - Jessica Pegula 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Swiatek I. (1)	Bye
2	Yuan Y. (WC)	Putintseva Y.	2 : 0
3	Li A.	Osorio C.	1 : 2
4	Bye	Kalinskaya A. (28)
5	Samsonova L. (19)	Bye
6	Boisson L.	Galfi D. (Q)	2 : 1
7	Sramkova R.	Ruse G.	0 : 2
8	Bye	Navarro E. (16)
9	Osaka N. (12)	Bye
10	Sasnovich A. (Q)	Tjen J. (Q)	2 : 1
11	Frech M.	Seidel E. (Q)	0 : 2
12	Bye	Kostyuk M. (23)
13	Raducanu E. (30)	Bye
14	Vekic D.	Bucsa C. (Q)	0 : 2
15	Tomljanovic A.	Starodubtseva Y.	2 : 0
16	Bye	Pegula J. (5)
17	Andreeva M. (4)	Bye
18	Uchijima M. (Q)	Zhu L. (WC)	0 : 2
19	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Cristian J.	2 : 0
20	Bye	Yastremska D. (29)
21	Shnaider D. (17)	Bye
22	Jimenez Kasintseva V. (Q)	Joint M.	0 : 2
23	Kartal S.	Parks A.	2 : 0
24	Bye	Kasatkina D. (14)
25	Tauson C. (10)	Bye
26	Sonmez Z.	Wei S. (WC)	2 : 0
27	Siniakova K.	Potapova A.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Mboko V. (21)
29	Noskova L. (26)	Bye
30	Guo H. (WC)	Wang Xiy. (WC)	0 : 2
31	Lamens S.	Arango E. (LL)	0 : 2
32	Bye	Zheng Q. (7)
33	Paolini J. (6)	Bye
34	Sevastova A.	Birrell K.	2 : 0
35	Kudermetova P.	Inglis M. (Q)	2 : 0
36	Bye	Kenin S. (27)
37	Kudermetova V. (24)	Bye
38	Bondar A. (Q)	Andreescu B.	2 : 0
39	Maria T.	Bouzkova M.	0 : 2
40	Bye	Linette M. (33)
41	Muchova K. (13)	Bye
42	Dolehide C.	Cirstea S.	0 : 2
43	Jacquemot E. (Q)	Ruzic A.	0 : 2
44	Bye	Badosa P. (18)
45	Wang Xin. (31)	Bye
46	Zakharova A. (Q)	Zhang S. (WC)	1 : 2
47	Boulter K.	Baptiste H.	2 : 1
48	Bye	Anisimova A. (3)
49	Rybakina E. (8)	Bye
50	Siegemund L.	McNally C.	0 : 2
51	Zhang R. (WC)	Lys E.	0 : 2
52	Bye	Jovic I. (32)
53	Mertens E. (20)	Bye
54	Kessler M.	Shi H. (WC)	2 : 0
55	Krejcikova B.	Blinkova A.	2 : 0
56	Bye	Alexandrova E. (9)
57	Bencic B. (15)	Bye
58	Volynets K. (Q)	Stearns P.	2 : 1
59	Hon P. (Q)	Golubic V.	2 : 1
60	Bye	Ostapenko J. (22)
61	Fernandez L. (25)	Bye
62	Krueger A.	Sakkari M.	1 : 2
63	Bronzetti L.	Rakhimova K.	0 : 2
64	Bye	Gauff C. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Swiatek I. (1)	Yuan Y.	2 : 0
2	Osorio C.	Kalinskaya A. (28)	2 : 1
3	Samsonova L. (19)	Boisson L.	0 : 2
4	Ruse G.	Navarro E. (16)	0 : 2
5	Osaka N. (12)	Sasnovich A.	1 : 2
6	Seidel E.	Kostyuk M. (23)	0 : 2
7	Raducanu E. (30)	Bucsa C.	2 : 0
8	Tomljanovic A.	Pegula J. (5)	0 : 2
9	Andreeva M. (4)	Zhu L.	2 : 0
10	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Yastremska D. (29)	2 : 0
11	Shnaider D. (17)	Joint M.	0 : 2
12	Kartal S.	Kasatkina D. (14)	2 : 0
13	Tauson C. (10)	Sonmez Z.	1 : 2
14	Potapova A.	Mboko V. (21)	2 : 0
15	Noskova L. (26)	Wang Xiy.	2 : 0
16	Arango E.	Zheng Q. (7)	0 : 2
17	Paolini J. (6)	Sevastova A.	2 : 0
18	Kudermetova P.	Kenin S. (27)	0 : 2
19	Kudermetova V. (24)	Bondar A.	2 : 0
20	Bouzkova M.	Linette M. (33)	2 : 0
21	Muchova K. (13)	Cirstea S.	2 : 0
22	Ruzic A.	Badosa P. (18)	0 : 2
23	Wang Xin. (31)	Zhang S.	0 : 2
24	Boulter K.	Anisimova A. (3)	0 : 2
25	Rybakina E. (8)	McNally C.	2 : 1
26	Lys E.	Jovic I. (32)	2 : 1
27	Mertens E. (20)	Kessler M.	0 : 2
28	Krejcikova B.	Alexandrova E. (9)	2 : 0
29	Bencic B. (15)	Volynets K.	2 : 0
30	Hon P.	Ostapenko J. (22)	2 : 0
31	Fernandez L. (25)	Sakkari M.	2 : 0
32	Rakhimova K.	Gauff C. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Swiatek I. (1)	Osorio C. (RET.)	1 : 0
2	Boisson L. (RET.)	Navarro E. (16)	0 : 1
3	Sasnovich A.	Kostyuk M. (23)	0 : 2
4	Raducanu E. (30)	Pegula J. (5)	1 : 2
5	Andreeva M. (4)	Bouzas Maneiro J.	2 : 0
6	Joint M.	Kartal S.	0 : 2
7	Sonmez Z.	Potapova A.	0 : 2
8	Noskova L. (26)	Zheng Q. (RET.) (7)	1 : 1
9	Paolini J. (6)	Kenin S. (27)	2 : 0
10	Kudermetova V. (24)	Bouzkova M.	0 : 2
11	Muchova K. (13)	Badosa P. (RET.) (18)	0 : 0
12	Zhang S.	Anisimova A. (3)	0 : 2
13	Rybakina E. (8)	Lys E.	1 : 2
14	Kessler M.	Krejcikova B. (RET.)	1 : 1
15	Bencic B. (15)	Hon P.	2 : 1
16	Fernandez L. (25)	Gauff C. (2)	1 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Swiatek I. (1)	Navarro E. (16)	1 : 2
2	Kostyuk M. (23)	Pegula J. (5)	1 : 2
3	Andreeva M. (4)	Kartal S.	1 : 2
4	Potapova A.	Noskova L. (26)	0 : 2
5	Paolini J. (6)	Bouzkova M.	2 : 0
6	Muchova K. (13)	Anisimova A. (3)	1 : 2
7	Lys E.	Kessler M.	2 : 1
8	Bencic B. (15)	Gauff C. (2)	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Navarro E. (16)	Pegula J. (5)	1 : 2
2	Kartal S.	Noskova L. (26)	0 : 2
3	Paolini J. (6)	Anisimova A. (3)	1 : 2
4	Lys E.	Gauff C. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Pegula J. (5)	Noskova L. (26)	1 : 2
2	Anisimova A. (3)	Gauff C. (2)	2 : 0

Final

1

Noskova L. (26)

Anisimova A. (3)

1 : 2