Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis WTA Beijing Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula
Result
1:2
01/10/2025 at 10:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WTA - SINGLES: Beijing, hard - 1/8-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 1
germanyGermanySky Sport Tennis
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports Tennis

Match Stats

Aces
10
Double Faults
64
1st Serve Percentage
66%52%
1st Serve Points Won
54% (39/72)67% (33/49)
2nd Serve Points Won
41% (15/37)51% (23/45)
Break Points Saved
38% (5/13)63% (5/8)
1st Return Points Won
33% (16/49)46% (33/72)
2nd Return Points Won
49% (22/45)59% (22/37)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)62% (8/13)
Service Points Won
50% (54/109)60% (56/94)
Return Points Won
40% (38/94)50% (55/109)
Total Points Won
45% (92/203)55% (111/203)
Last 10 Balls
28
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
47% (7/15)77% (10/13)
Return Games Won
23% (3/13)53% (8/15)
Total Games Won
36% (10/28)64% (18/28)

Chances of winning


Marta Kostyuk
37.7%
Jessica Pegula
62.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.8% 60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1% 64.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Marta Kostyuk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)
  • Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
  • Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.58
    (2.3)

    1.56
    (1.52)
    3%
    (9.3%)
    What is the prediction for Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula?
  • Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Kostyuk will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Pegula will win (votes: 8 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Kostyuk: 25.5%74.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Kostyuk (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 28. Pegula is ranked WTA: 7.
    • Kostyuk is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Pegula has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Kostyuk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Pegula could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kostyuk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula were as follows:
    24.03.2025 Marta Kostyuk - Jessica Pegula 0:2
    02.03.2024 Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk 0:2
    19.01.2023 Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk 2:0
    Latest results of Marta Kostyuk
    Latest results of Jessica Pegula
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Swiatek I. (1)Bye
    2Yuan Y. (WC)Putintseva Y.2 : 0
    3Li A.Osorio C.1 : 2
    4ByeKalinskaya A. (28)
    5Samsonova L. (19)Bye
    6Boisson L.Galfi D. (Q)2 : 1
    7Sramkova R.Ruse G.0 : 2
    8ByeNavarro E. (16)
    9Osaka N. (12)Bye
    10Sasnovich A. (Q)Tjen J. (Q)2 : 1
    11Frech M.Seidel E. (Q)0 : 2
    12ByeKostyuk M. (23)
    13Raducanu E. (30)Bye
    14Vekic D.Bucsa C. (Q)0 : 2
    15Tomljanovic A.Starodubtseva Y.2 : 0
    16ByePegula J. (5)
    17Andreeva M. (4)Bye
    18Uchijima M. (Q)Zhu L. (WC)0 : 2
    19Bouzas Maneiro J.Cristian J.2 : 0
    20ByeYastremska D. (29)
    21Shnaider D. (17)Bye
    22Jimenez Kasintseva V. (Q)Joint M.0 : 2
    23Kartal S.Parks A.2 : 0
    24ByeKasatkina D. (14)
    25Tauson C. (10)Bye
    26Sonmez Z.Wei S. (WC)2 : 0
    27Siniakova K.Potapova A.0 : 2
    28ByeMboko V. (21)
    29Noskova L. (26)Bye
    30Guo H. (WC)Wang Xiy. (WC)0 : 2
    31Lamens S.Arango E. (LL)0 : 2
    32ByeZheng Q. (7)
    33Paolini J. (6)Bye
    34Sevastova A.Birrell K.2 : 0
    35Kudermetova P.Inglis M. (Q)2 : 0
    36ByeKenin S. (27)
    37Kudermetova V. (24)Bye
    38Bondar A. (Q)Andreescu B.2 : 0
    39Maria T.Bouzkova M.0 : 2
    40ByeLinette M. (33)
    41Muchova K. (13)Bye
    42Dolehide C.Cirstea S.0 : 2
    43Jacquemot E. (Q)Ruzic A.0 : 2
    44ByeBadosa P. (18)
    45Wang Xin. (31)Bye
    46Zakharova A. (Q)Zhang S. (WC)1 : 2
    47Boulter K.Baptiste H.2 : 1
    48ByeAnisimova A. (3)
    49Rybakina E. (8)Bye
    50Siegemund L.McNally C.0 : 2
    51Zhang R. (WC)Lys E.0 : 2
    52ByeJovic I. (32)
    53Mertens E. (20)Bye
    54Kessler M.Shi H. (WC)2 : 0
    55Krejcikova B.Blinkova A.2 : 0
    56ByeAlexandrova E. (9)
    57Bencic B. (15)Bye
    58Volynets K. (Q)Stearns P.2 : 1
    59Hon P. (Q)Golubic V.2 : 1
    60ByeOstapenko J. (22)
    61Fernandez L. (25)Bye
    62Krueger A.Sakkari M.1 : 2
    63Bronzetti L.Rakhimova K.0 : 2
    64ByeGauff C. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Swiatek I. (1)Yuan Y.2 : 0
    2Osorio C.Kalinskaya A. (28)2 : 1
    3Samsonova L. (19)Boisson L.0 : 2
    4Ruse G.Navarro E. (16)0 : 2
    5Osaka N. (12)Sasnovich A.1 : 2
    6Seidel E.Kostyuk M. (23)0 : 2
    7Raducanu E. (30)Bucsa C.2 : 0
    8Tomljanovic A.Pegula J. (5)0 : 2
    9Andreeva M. (4)Zhu L.2 : 0
    10Bouzas Maneiro J.Yastremska D. (29)2 : 0
    11Shnaider D. (17)Joint M.0 : 2
    12Kartal S.Kasatkina D. (14)2 : 0
    13Tauson C. (10)Sonmez Z.1 : 2
    14Potapova A.Mboko V. (21)2 : 0
    15Noskova L. (26)Wang Xiy.2 : 0
    16Arango E.Zheng Q. (7)0 : 2
    17Paolini J. (6)Sevastova A.2 : 0
    18Kudermetova P.Kenin S. (27)0 : 2
    19Kudermetova V. (24)Bondar A.2 : 0
    20Bouzkova M.Linette M. (33)2 : 0
    21Muchova K. (13)Cirstea S.2 : 0
    22Ruzic A.Badosa P. (18)0 : 2
    23Wang Xin. (31)Zhang S.0 : 2
    24Boulter K.Anisimova A. (3)0 : 2
    25Rybakina E. (8)McNally C.2 : 1
    26Lys E.Jovic I. (32)2 : 1
    27Mertens E. (20)Kessler M.0 : 2
    28Krejcikova B.Alexandrova E. (9)2 : 0
    29Bencic B. (15)Volynets K.2 : 0
    30Hon P.Ostapenko J. (22)2 : 0
    31Fernandez L. (25)Sakkari M.2 : 0
    32Rakhimova K.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Swiatek I. (1)Osorio C. (RET.)1 : 0
    2Boisson L. (RET.)Navarro E. (16)0 : 1
    3Sasnovich A.Kostyuk M. (23)0 : 2
    4Raducanu E. (30)Pegula J. (5)1 : 2
    5Andreeva M. (4)Bouzas Maneiro J.2 : 0
    6Joint M.Kartal S.0 : 2
    7Sonmez Z.Potapova A.0 : 2
    8Noskova L. (26)Zheng Q. (RET.) (7)1 : 1
    9Paolini J. (6)Kenin S. (27)2 : 0
    10Kudermetova V. (24)Bouzkova M.0 : 2
    11Muchova K. (13)Badosa P. (RET.) (18)0 : 0
    12Zhang S.Anisimova A. (3)0 : 2
    13Rybakina E. (8)Lys E.1 : 2
    14Kessler M.Krejcikova B. (RET.)1 : 1
    15Bencic B. (15)Hon P.2 : 1
    16Fernandez L. (25)Gauff C. (2)1 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Swiatek I. (1)Navarro E. (16)1 : 2
    2Kostyuk M. (23)Pegula J. (5)1 : 2
    3Andreeva M. (4)Kartal S.1 : 2
    4Potapova A.Noskova L. (26)0 : 2
    5Paolini J. (6)Bouzkova M.2 : 0
    6Muchova K. (13)Anisimova A. (3)1 : 2
    7Lys E.Kessler M.2 : 1
    8Bencic B. (15)Gauff C. (2)1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Navarro E. (16)Pegula J. (5)1 : 2
    2Kartal S.Noskova L. (26)0 : 2
    3Paolini J. (6)Anisimova A. (3)1 : 2
    4Lys E.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Pegula J. (5)Noskova L. (26)1 : 2
    2Anisimova A. (3)Gauff C. (2)2 : 0

    Final
    1Noskova L. (26)Anisimova A. (3)1 : 2