Result
1:2
05/03/2026 at 04:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kigali, clay - Quarter-finals
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| 1st serve percentage |
|---|
| 60% | 65% |
| 1st serve points won |
|---|
| 73% (61/83) | 75% (59/79) |
| 2nd serve points won |
|---|
| 57% (32/56) | 63% (27/43) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 90% (9/10) | 67% (2/3) |
| 1st return points won |
|---|
| 27% (21/79) | 28% (23/83) |
| 2nd return points won |
|---|
| 37% (16/43) | 43% (24/56) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 33% (1/3) | 10% (1/10) |
| Winners |
|---|
| 40 | 38 |
| Unforced errors |
|---|
| 52 | 56 |
| Net points won |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 78% (14/18) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 66% (92/139) | 70% (86/122) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 30% (36/122) | 34% (47/139) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 49% (128/261) | 51% (133/261) |
| Last 10 balls |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Match points saved |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Service games won |
|---|
| 94% (17/18) | 94% (17/18) |
| Return games won |
|---|
| 6% (1/18) | 6% (1/18) |
| Total games won |
|---|
| 50% (18/36) | 50% (18/36) |
Chances of winning
Marco Trungelliti
61.1% | Joel Schwaerzler
38.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Joel Schwaerzler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joel Schwaerzler than the current prediction. (-3%)
Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.53 ↑
(1.51) |
|
2.42 ↑
(2.4) |
6.7%
(7.9%) | |
What is the prediction for Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Trungelliti will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Trungelliti: 64.6% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Marco Trungelliti will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 132. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 214.
- Recent performances by Trungelliti have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Schwaerzler is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Trungelliti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Trungelliti might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trungelliti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Marco Trungelliti won against Joel Schwaerzler?
Marco Trungelliti has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Joel Schwaerzler won against Marco Trungelliti?
Joel Schwaerzler has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Marco Trungelliti - Joel Schwaerzler were as follows:
06.09.2025
Joel Schwaerzler
-
Marco Trungelliti
0:2
Latest results of Marco Trungelliti
Latest results of Joel Schwaerzler
Draw
Singles - Main1/16-finals| 1 | Trungelliti M. (1) | Johns G. | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Bax F. | Pennaforti G. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Erhard M. | Schwaerzler J. J. | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Cuenin S. | Kolar Z. (7) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Carballes Baena R. (4) | Kopp S. | 0 : 2 |
| 6 | Cecchinato M. | Ouakaa A. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 7 | Ionel N. D. (Q) | De Krom M. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 8 | Pieri S. (Q) | Kym J. (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 9 | Pavlovic L. (8) | Martin Tiffon P. | 2 : 0 |
| 10 | Coulibaly E. | Bouchelaghem C. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 11 | Napolitano S. (Q) | Denolly C. | 2 : 0 |
| 12 | Forejtek J. | Mikrut L. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 13 | Clarke J. (6) | Hemery C. | 1 : 2 |
| 14 | Houkes M. | Nijboer R. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 15 | Martin A. | Jianu F. C. | 0 : 2 |
| 16 | Dalla Valle E. (Q) | Gea A. (2) | 0 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Trungelliti M. (1) | Bax F. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Schwaerzler J. J. | Kolar Z. (7) | 2 : 1 |
| 3 | Kopp S. | Cecchinato M. | 1 : 2 |
| 4 | De Krom M. | Kym J. (5) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Pavlovic L. (8) | Coulibaly E. | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Napolitano S. | Mikrut L. (RET.) (3) | 1 : 1 |
| 7 | Hemery C. | Nijboer R. | 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Jianu F. C. | Gea A. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Trungelliti M. (1) | Schwaerzler J. J. | 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Cecchinato M. | Kym J. (RET.) (5) | 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Pavlovic L. (8) | Napolitano S. | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Hemery C. | Gea A. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Schwaerzler J. J. | Cecchinato M. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Napolitano S. | Gea A. (2) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Schwaerzler J. J. | Napolitano S. | 2 : 0 |
