Joinville vs Náutico Marcílio Dias – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie D Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias
Result
1:1
06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie D - Round 11

Match Stats

Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
610
Shots on target
25
Corner Kicks
513
Total shots
610
Shots on target
25
Shots off target
45
Corner Kicks
513
Goalkeeper Saves
41

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 2', 1 - 0, Marquinhos Brazion ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 66', 1 - 1, Jefferson Vinicius ,

Chances of winning


Joinville
44.5%
Draw
30.5%
Náutico Marcílio Dias
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.6% 28.1% 33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4% 28.2% 33.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joinville's performance.
  • Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Marcílio Dias might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joinville that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Marcílio Dias could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.03
    (2.33)
    2.96
    (3.2)
    3.6
    (2.7)
    11%
    (11.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Joinville (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals))
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 0.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Joinville might have a minor edge in this game.
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Joinville won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 0.8:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Joinville won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias were as follows:
    10.05.2025 Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville 1:0
    06.02.2025 Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias 1:1
    29.09.2024 Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias 2:2
    20.01.2024 Joinville - Náutico Marcílio Dias 2:3
    10.09.2023 Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville 2:1
    Latest results of Joinville
    Latest results of Náutico Marcílio Dias
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1LagartoCentral SC2 : 2, 0 : 1
    2Tuna LusoMaranhao2 : 0, 1 : 4
    3America RNJuazeirense2 : 0, 1 : 1
    4ImperatrizManaus1 : 2, 2 : 0
    5AE AltosIndependencia3 : 1, 5 : 1
    6Santa CruzSergipe3 : 1, 1 : 2
    7ASAFerroviario2 : 0, 1 : 0
    8ManauaraSampaio Correa1 : 0, 1 : 1
    9AparecidenseMarica2 : 2, 2 : 1
    10EC Sao JoseGoiatuba1 : 2, 1 : 1
    11Inter de LimeiraMarcilio Dias2 : 1, 0 : 0
    12Rio Branco ESLuverdense3 : 0, 0 : 0
    13PortuguesaMixto1 : 1, 0 : 1
    14CianorteJoinville4 : 0, 1 : 1
    15Barra FCCascavel3 : 0, 1 : 0
    16CeilandiaAgua Santa1 : 0, 1 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1Central SCMaranhao1 : 2
    2America RNImperatriz1 : 0
    3AE AltosSanta Cruz1 : 1
    4ASAManauara1 : 0
    5AparecidenseGoiatuba3 : 2
    6Inter de LimeiraRio Branco ES1 : 0
    7MixtoCianorte1 : 1
    8Barra FCCeilandia1 : 1