Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

24/01/2026 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV).

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC
Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	RMC Sport 1
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovakia	Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Setanta Sports

Highlights

Chances of winning

Justin Gaethje
32.3%

Paddy Pimblett
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Justin Gaethje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Paddy Pimblett has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Justin Gaethje - Paddy Pimblett Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (2.94)		1.41 ↑ (1.39)	5.2% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Justin Gaethje - Paddy Pimblett?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Gaethje will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Pimblett will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pimblett: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Paddy Pimblett will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is .

Preview Facts

Interim title fight.
In this match, Pimblett is considered a favorite.
Recently, there has been no match between the fighters.

How many head-to-head matches has Justin Gaethje won against Paddy Pimblett?

Justin Gaethje has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Paddy Pimblett won against Justin Gaethje?

Paddy Pimblett has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Justin Gaethje - Paddy Pimblett were as follows:

Latest results of Justin Gaethje

08.03.2025 Justin Gaethje - Rafael Fiziev Gaethje J. win ✺

08.03.2025 Justin Gaethje - Daniel Hooker Canceled ✺

13.04.2024 Justin Gaethje - Max Holloway Holloway M. - 5th Round KO ✺

30.07.2023 Dustin Poirier - Justin Gaethje KO/2:KO/2 ✺

Latest results of Paddy Pimblett

12.04.2025 Michael Chandler - Paddy Pimblett Pimblett P. - 3rd Round TKO ✺

27.07.2024 Bobby Green - Paddy Pimblett Pimblett P. - 1st Round TKO ✺

16.12.2023 Tony Ferguson - Paddy Pimblett Pimblett P. win ✺