Result
1:2 penalties
22/02/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Gaucho - Play Offs - Semi-finals
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.62 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (202/274) | 83% (365/438) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.62 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.18 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 28 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (202/274) | 83% (365/438) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (22/63) | 59% (37/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 41% (24/59) | 70% (85/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 5% (1/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.44 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 28 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 82% (14/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 67 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.93 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.18 | -0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 24', 1 - 0, Gabriel Taliari (Penalty Awarded),
- 36', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
- 44', Arthur Melo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Dodi ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
- 46', Joao Pedro ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
- 50', Castro M. 🟨,
- 61', Castro M. ↓, Pablo Roberto ↑,
- 64', Fabian Balbuena ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
- 66', Alisson Safira 🟨,
- 67', Jandrei 🟨,
- 69', Noriega E. 🟨,
- 70', Alisson Safira ↓, Marcos Paulo ↑,
- 71', 1 - 1, Viery ⚽, Noriega E. (A),
- 73', Gabriel Taliari 🟨,
- 77', Rai Ramos ↓, Nathan ↑,
- 77', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
- 79', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 90+4', 🟨,
- 90+5', 🟨,
- Penalties (1 - 4)
- 1, (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Juventude
30% | Draw
29.6% | Grêmio
40.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Juventude - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.04 ↓
(3.2) |
3.12 ↓
(3.2) |
2.28 ↑
(2.05) |
8.9%
(11.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Juventude - Grêmio?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Juventude (2.23) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Juventude (votes: 2 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 0.
- Juventude is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Recently, Grêmio has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:30. (average 1.2:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Juventude won against Grêmio?
Juventude has won 2 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Juventude?
Grêmio has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Juventude - Grêmio were as follows:
15.02.2026
Grêmio
-
Juventude
1:1
31.01.2026
Grêmio
-
Juventude
1:1
26.10.2025
Grêmio
-
Juventude
3:1
01.06.2025
Juventude
-
Grêmio
0:2
01.03.2025
Juventude
-
Grêmio
2:2
Latest results of Juventude
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Internacional | Sao Luiz | 3 : 1 |
| 2 | SER Caxias | Ypiranga FC | 0 : 2 |
| 3 | Juventude | EC Sao Jose | 3 : 2 |
| 4 | Gremio | Novo Hamburgo | 1 : 0 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Internacional | Ypiranga FC | 4 : 0, 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Juventude | Gremio | 1 : 2, 1 : 1 |
Final
