Result
2:1 penalties
19/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.86 | 2.22 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 5% (1/20) | 4.17% (1/24) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 23 | 19 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 95.83% (23/24) | 95% (19/20) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/4) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 100% (4/4) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 28 | 28 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 50 | 50 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 1)
- 00:20, 0 - 1, Saarelainen J. (G), Ruotsalainen V. (A), Soderlund T. (A2)
- 13:54, Lantta J. (2 min),
- 13:54, Wright C. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 0)
- 09:04, Ruotsalainen V. (2 min),
- 09:04, Kangas K. (2 min),
- 15:50, 1 - 1, Jokirinne V. (G), Wright C. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
- 18:34, Lantta J. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (0 - 0)
- 14:59, Kononen J. (2 min),
- Overtime (0 - 0)
- Penalties (1 - 0)
- 1, Caron T. (Penalty Shot),
- 1, Kapanen K. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Wright C. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Kononen J. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Hakulinen A. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Soderlund T. (Penalty Shot),
Chances of winning
HPK
55.1% | Draw
22.3% | KalPa
22.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HPK's performance.KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KalPa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-15%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HPK that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+12%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that KalPa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
HPK - KalPa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7 ↓
(2.39) |
4.22 ↑
(3.68) |
4.03 ↑
(2.63) |
7.3%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
What is the prediction for HPK - KalPa?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. HPK will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). KalPa will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for KalPa: 11.9% – 76.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. HPK (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - HPK (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. HPK (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 2.
- In recent matches, HPK has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- KalPa is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- KalPa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 46:62. (average 2.3:3.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:27. (average 3:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against KalPa?
HPK has won 5 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against HPK?
KalPa has won 11 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HPK - KalPa were as follows:
22.01.2026
KalPa
-
HPK
3:1
13.12.2025
HPK
-
KalPa
1:2
26.11.2025
KalPa
-
HPK
4:1
24.01.2025
KalPa
-
HPK
1:4
20.12.2024
HPK
-
KalPa
2:1
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
