Result
6:3
07/03/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 2.98 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 23 | 31 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 15 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 26.09% (6/23) | 9.68% (3/31) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 90.32% (28/31) | 80.95% (17/21) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 14 | 16 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 37.5% (3/8) | 14.29% (1/7) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 85.71% (6/7) | 62.5% (5/8) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 28 | 26 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 51.85 | 48.15 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 2)
- 00:45, 0 - 1, Tichacek J. (G), Paaso A. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 03:49, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
- 12:10, Kantner M. (2 min),
- 12:10, Erholtz E. (2 min),
- 12:10, Salmela T. (2 min),
- 12:10, Skinnari A. (2 min),
- 12:10, Loponen M. (2 min),
- 15:26, 0 - 2, Virta P. (G), Erholtz E. (A),
- 19:01, Wright C. (2 min),
- 19:22, 1 - 2, Kainulainen H. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Kangas K. (A2)
- 2nd Period (1 - 1)
- 05:54, Hirvonen R. (2 min),
- 09:59, Hakanpaa J. (2 min),
- 11:34, 2 - 2, Huttunen H. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
- 12:21, Jokirinne V. (2 min),
- 13:28, 2 - 3, Hirvonen R. (G), Kantner M. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 15:46, Korhonen O. (2 min),
- 20:00, Kantner M. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (4 - 0)
- 01:16, 3 - 3, Hakulinen A. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Huttunen H. (A2)
- 01:16, (2 min),
- 01:28, 4 - 3, Wright C. (G), Nikkila P. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
- 09:41, Nikkila P. (2 min),
- 17:27, Kantner M. (2 min),
- 18:32, 5 - 3, Wright C. (G),
- 19:02, 6 - 3, Kiiskinen J. (G), Korhonen O. (A),
Chances of winning
HPK
50.5% | Draw
22.9% | Kärpät
26.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
HPK - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↑
(1.87) |
3.99 ↓
(4.08) |
3.47 ↑
(3.38) |
7.1%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 4.75
What is the prediction for HPK - Kärpät?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC, 1st Period - Kärpät (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Kärpät (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 3.
- HPK is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Kärpät is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- HPK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- HPK could have a small edge in this match.
- We predict that HPK will win today's game, with odds of 1.87.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 41:58. (average 2.1:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:25. (average 2.1:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against Kärpät?
HPK has won 7 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against HPK?
Kärpät has won 12 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HPK - Kärpät were as follows:
06.03.2026
HPK
-
Kärpät
3:2
18.10.2025
Kärpät
-
HPK
1:2
17.10.2025
Kärpät
-
HPK
5:2
22.01.2025
Kärpät
-
HPK
0:3
13.12.2024
HPK
-
Kärpät
0:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
