Result
3:1
14/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.34 | 1.31 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 15.79% (3/19) | 4% (1/25) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 96% (24/25) | 84.21% (16/19) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (4/4) | 80% (4/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 24 | 20 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 54.55 | 45.45 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 0)
- 00:58, 1 - 0, Soini K. (G), Junttila J. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 08:14, Ketola J. (2 min),
- 14:09, Tikka T. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (2 - 1)
- 05:48, Ojantakanen K. (2 min),
- 08:48, Lantta J. (2 min),
- 13:44, Kononen J. (2 min),
- 13:44, Erholtz E. (2 min),
- 13:54, 2 - 0, Kantner M. (G), Hermonen J. (A),
- 15:30, 2 - 1, Soderlund T. (G), Westerlund F. (A), Klemetti A. (A2)
- 16:30, Lantta J. (2 min),
- 16:30, Mononen V. (2 min),
- 17:12, 3 - 1, Erholtz E. (G), Raty Aku (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 0)
- 03:26, Tieksola T. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Kärpät
43.3% | Draw
24% | KalPa
32.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)KalPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and KalPa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for KalPa than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
Kärpät - KalPa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↓
(2.42) |
3.86 ↓
(4.09) |
2.83 ↑
(2.42) |
7.3%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
What is the prediction for Kärpät - KalPa?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Kärpät (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Kärpät (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Kärpät (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Kärpät (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Kärpät (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.
- Kärpät is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- KalPa is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- KalPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- We predict that KalPa will win today's game, with odds of 2.43.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 60:72. (average 3:3.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 2.7:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against KalPa?
Kärpät has won 6 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has KalPa won against Kärpät?
KalPa has won 13 of their last 19 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - KalPa were as follows:
13.02.2026
Kärpät
-
KalPa
2:5
25.10.2025
KalPa
-
Kärpät
3:1
24.10.2025
KalPa
-
Kärpät
6:4
21.08.2025
KalPa
-
Kärpät
4:7
22.02.2025
KalPa
-
Kärpät
7:5
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
