Result
5:4 OT
16/01/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 4.06 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 21 | 33 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 16 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 23.81% (5/21) | 12.12% (4/33) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 16 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 29 | 16 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 87.88% (29/33) | 76.19% (16/21) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 33.33% (1/3) | 33.33% (2/6) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 66.67% (4/6) | 66.67% (2/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 29 | 27 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 51.79 | 48.21 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (3 - 1)
- 00:56, Bjork M. (2 min),
- 03:10, Intonen A. (2 min),
- 03:18, 1 - 0, Hirvonen R. (G), Erholtz E. (A), Raty Aku (A2)
- 07:51, 2 - 0, Heikkala V. (G), Tichacek J. (A), Junttila J. (A2)
- 08:12, 3 - 0, Hermonen J. (G), Nikupeteri O. (A), Ruotsalainen V. (A2)
- 08:12, Raanta A. ↓, Salonen D. ↑,
- 09:41, (2 min),
- 11:44, 3 - 1, Westerholm Po. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
- 17:52, Peters A. (2 min),
- 19:29, Tikka T. (2 min),
- 19:29, Westerholm Po. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 2)
- 02:34, Salmela T. (2 min),
- 03:35, 4 - 1, Tichacek J. (G),
- 05:39, Junttila J. (2 min),
- 05:39, Junttila J. (2 min),
- 05:56, 4 - 2, Westerholm Po. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
- 06:33, 4 - 3, Saarela A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Tuuva L. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 1)
- 15:44, 4 - 4, Morand A. (G), Stenqvist J. (A), Valila A. (A2)
- Overtime (1 - 0)
- 03:01, 5 - 4, Raty Aku (G), Tichacek J. (A), Rubin N. (A2)
Chances of winning
Kärpät
31.9% | Draw
23.1% | Lukko
45% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Kärpät - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.92 ↓
(2.98) |
3.96 ↑
(3.73) |
2.11 ↓
(2.14) |
6.9%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
What is the prediction for Kärpät - Lukko?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Lukko (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Lukko (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lukko (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.
- Kärpät has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Lukko is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Lukko could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 44:71. (average 2.2:3.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:34. (average 2.4:3.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Lukko?
Kärpät has won 3 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Kärpät?
Lukko has won 12 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - Lukko were as follows:
09.01.2026
Lukko
-
Kärpät
4:1
10.12.2025
Lukko
-
Kärpät
5:2
24.09.2025
Kärpät
-
Lukko
5:7
28.02.2025
Lukko
-
Kärpät
2:1
14.12.2024
Kärpät
-
Lukko
5:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
