Result
5:7
24/09/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1 |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.40 | 2.44 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 23 | 24 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 21.74% (5/23) | 29.17% (7/24) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 70.83% (17/24) | 78.26% (18/23) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 12.5% (1/8) | 0% (0/5) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (5/5) | 87.5% (7/8) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 33 | 24 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 57.89 | 42.11 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (2 - 3)
- 02:58, Peters A. (2 min),
- 03:24, 0 - 1, Westerholm Pa. (G),
- 05:13, (2 min),
- 07:50, (2 min),
- 10:25, 0 - 2, Jandric S. (G), Viitasalo N. (A), Morand A. (A2)
- 11:57, 0 - 3, Stenqvist J. (G), Westerholm Pa. (A), Peters A. (A2)
- 14:50, Peters A. (2 min),
- 16:27, 1 - 3, Tardif B. (G), Virta P. (A), Nutivaara M. (A2)
- 17:50, 2 - 3, Erholtz E. (G), Raty Aku (A),
- 2nd Period (2 - 2)
- 04:09, 2 - 4, Hamalainen L. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Ikonen H. (A2)
- 05:57, 2 - 5, Haapanen T. (G), Peters A. (A),
- 09:59, 3 - 5, Tichacek J. (G), Ojantakanen K. (A), Antti-Roiko A. (A2)
- 10:28, 4 - 5, Erholtz E. (G), Nutivaara M. (A), Hirvonen R. (A2)
- 11:24, Salmela T. (2 min),
- 11:24, Jandric S. (2 min),
- 13:17, Tuuva L. (2 min),
- 13:17, Nutivaara M. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 2)
- 01:06, 4 - 6, Jandric S. (G), Stenqvist J. (A),
- 05:49, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
- 09:32, 5 - 6, Tardif B. (G), Kantner M. (A),
- 11:19, Jandric S. (2 min),
- 14:36, Hirvonen R. (2 min),
- 14:36, Ruohomaa M. (2 min),
- 15:20, Westerholm Po. (2 min),
- 17:48, 5 - 7, Jandric S. (G), Morand A. (A), Tuuva L. (A2)
Chances of winning
Kärpät
33.4% | Draw
22.9% | Lukko
43.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kärpät's form might have worsened.Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lukko's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kärpät, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-8.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lukko, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Kärpät - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.94 ↑
(2.3) |
4.24 ↑
(3.99) |
2.17 ↓
(2.61) |
3.6%
(7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 6.00
What is the prediction for Kärpät - Lukko?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Lukko will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Lukko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kärpät won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 39:61. (average 2:3.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kärpät won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:28. (average 2.1:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against Lukko?
Kärpät has won 3 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against Kärpät?
Lukko has won 9 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kärpät - Lukko were as follows:
28.02.2025
Lukko
-
Kärpät
2:1
14.12.2024
Kärpät
-
Lukko
5:4
20.11.2024
Kärpät
-
Lukko
3:4
21.09.2024
Lukko
-
Kärpät
6:2
30.01.2024
Kärpät
-
Lukko
1:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | TPS Turku | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17:13 | 15 |
| 2 | Kiekko-Espoo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:16 | 14 |
| 3 | Assat | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 |
| 4 | Tappara | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 12 |
| 5 | JYP | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:14 | 12 |
| 6 | Lukko | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22:19 | 9 |
| 7 | KooKoo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:22 | 8 |
| 8 | KalPa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:25 | 8 |
| 9 | SaiPa | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19:20 | 7 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 11 | Vaasan Sport | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:15 | 6 |
| 12 | Karpat | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:18 | 6 |
| 13 | Jukurit | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:18 | 6 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 15 | Ilves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:23 | 5 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:23 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Liiga (Play Out: )
