Result
86:97
10/10/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- WNBA - Play Offs - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Australia | ESPN |
 Brazil | ESPN 2, ESPN 3 |
 Czech-republic | Sport 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 4 |
 Hungary | Sport 1 |
 Slovakia | Sport 1 |
 United-kingdom | TNT Sports 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Field Goals Attempted |
|---|
| 64 | 72 |
| Field Goals Made |
|---|
| 32 | 28 |
| Field Goals % |
|---|
| 50% | 38.89% |
| 2-Point Field G. Attempted |
|---|
| 46 | 41 |
| 2-Point Field Goals Made |
|---|
| 27 | 16 |
| 2-Point Field Goals % |
|---|
| 58.7% | 39.02% |
| 3-Point Field G. Attempted |
|---|
| 18 | 31 |
| 3-Point Field Goals Made |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| 3-Point Field Goals % |
|---|
| 27.78% | 38.71% |
| Free Throws Attempted |
|---|
| 19 | 35 |
| Free Throws Made |
|---|
| 17 | 29 |
| Free Throws % |
|---|
| 89.5% | 82.9% |
| Offensive Rebounds |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Defensive Rebounds |
|---|
| 33 | 22 |
| Total Rebounds |
|---|
| 41 | 32 |
| Assists |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Blocks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Turnovers |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Steals |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Personal Fouls |
|---|
| 25 | 16 |
Chances of winning
Phoenix Mercury
45.6% | Las Vegas Aces
54.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Phoenix Mercury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)Las Vegas Aces has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Mercury than the current prediction. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Vegas Aces than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.11 ↓
(2.15) |
|
1.77 ↑
(1.73) |
3.9%
(4.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 163.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)
What is the prediction for Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Phoenix will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). Las Vegas will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Phoenix: 62.1% – 93.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Phoenix Mercury will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 81:83.
Preview Facts
- Las Vegas Aces leads series 3-0. 4th leg.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Phoenix won 0.
- Phoenix has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Las Vegas is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Las Vegas might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Phoenix won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 1599:1828. (average 80:91.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Phoenix won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 582:653. (average 83.1:93.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Phoenix Mercury won against Las Vegas Aces?
Phoenix Mercury has won 2 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Las Vegas Aces won against Phoenix Mercury?
Las Vegas Aces has won 14 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces were as follows:
08.10.2025
Phoenix Mercury
-
Las Vegas Aces
88:90
05.10.2025
Las Vegas Aces
-
Phoenix Mercury
91:78
03.10.2025
Las Vegas Aces
-
Phoenix Mercury
89:86
21.08.2025
Las Vegas Aces
-
Phoenix Mercury
83:61
15.08.2025
Phoenix Mercury
-
Las Vegas Aces
83:86
Latest results of Phoenix Mercury
Latest results of Las Vegas Aces
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Las Vegas Aces W (2) | Seattle Storm W (7) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Atlanta Dream W (3) | Indiana Fever W (6) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Minnesota Lynx W (1) | Golden State Valkyries W (8) | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Phoenix Mercury W (4) | New York Liberty W (5) | 2 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Las Vegas Aces W (2) | Indiana Fever W (6) | 3 : 2 |
| 2 | Minnesota Lynx W (1) | Phoenix Mercury W (4) | 1 : 3 |
Final| 1 | Las Vegas Aces W (2) | Phoenix Mercury W (4) | 4 : 0 |
