Lens vs Brest – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1 Lens - Brest
Result
3:1
29/08/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 3
  • Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 2, Fast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 5
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFranceAmazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
israelIsrael5 LIVE Israel
japanJapanDAZN Japan
maltaMaltaTVM Sport+
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 4
portugalPortugalSport TV5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 3
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport 1
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.621.10
Ball Possession
67%33%
Total shots
309
Shots on target
102
Big Chances
61
Corner Kicks
151
Passes
85% (494/578)73% (208/284)
Yellow Cards
13
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
3.621.10
xG on target (xGOT)
4.051.06
Total shots
309
Shots on target
102
Shots off target
92
Blocked Shots
115
Shots inside the Box
267
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
61
Corner Kicks
151
Touches in opposition box
5517
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
107
Passes
85% (494/578)73% (208/284)
Long passes
50% (22/44)49% (30/61)
Passes in final third
80% (148/186)60% (49/81)
Crosses
31% (11/35)25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
2.210.55
Throw-ins
1216
Fouls
712
Tackles
73% (11/15)73% (11/15)
Duels won
5364
Clearances
2031
Interceptions
58
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
17
xGOT faced
1.064.05
Goals prevented
0.061.05

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 24', 0 - 1, Balde M. , Doumbia K. (A),
  • 45', Ajorque L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 46', Machado D. , Baidoo S. ,
  • 48', Magnetti H. 🟨,
  • 55', Majecki R. 🟥,
  • 57', Lala K. 🟨,
  • 59', Del Castillo R. , Coudert G. ,
  • 60', 1 - 1, Thauvin F. (Pen),
  • 69', Aguilar R. 🟨,
  • 75', Doumbia K. , Bourgault J. ,
  • 75', Balde M. , Makalou H. ,
  • 75', Fofana R. , Guilavogui M. ,
  • 76', Thauvin F. , Bermont A. ,
  • 76', Aguilar R. , Abdulhamid S. ,
  • 78', 2 - 1, Guilavogui M. ,
  • 86', Chotard J. , Diop S. ,
  • 86', Locko B. , Le Guen R. ,
  • 90+2', 3 - 1, Thomasson A. , Abdulhamid S. (A),
  • 90+3', Said W. , Sotoca F. ,

Chances of winning


Lens
43.4%
Draw
28%
Brest
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.5% 26% 25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7% 26.6% 24.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lens's form might have worsened.
  • Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lens, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
  • Lens - Brest Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.38
    (1.96)
    3.57
    (3.66)
    3.46
    (3.73)
    -1%
    (5.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Lens - Brest?
  • Users Predictions: Lens will win (35 of 42 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 72.06%94.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lens will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lens won 3.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Lens might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Lens: Jhoanner Chavez (Ankle Injury) Satriano M. (Leg Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lens won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:29. (average 1.4:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lens won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lens - Brest were as follows:
    20.04.2025 Brest - Lens 1:3
    25.08.2024 Lens - Brest 2:0
    09.03.2024 Lens - Brest 1:0
    13.08.2023 Brest - Lens 3:2
    05.02.2023 Brest - Lens 1:1
    Latest results of Lens
    24.08.2025 Le Havre - Lens 1:2
    16.08.2025 Lens - Lyon 0:1
    09.08.2025 Lens - RB Leipzig 2:1
    02.08.2025 Lens - Roma 0:2
    Latest results of Brest
    24.08.2025 Toulouse - Brest 2:0
    17.08.2025 Brest - Lille 3:3
    09.08.2025 Brest - Sassuolo 1:1
    03.08.2025 Napoli - Brest 1:2
    30.07.2025 Brest - Le Havre 1:0
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG33008:359
    2Lyon33005:059
    3Lille321011:477
    4Monaco32016:426
    5Lens32015:326
    6Strasbourg32014:316
    7Toulouse32016:606
    8Angers31112:204
    9Rennes31112:5-34
    10Marseille31025:413
    11Le Havre31025:6-13
    12Nice31024:5-13
    13Nantes31021:2-13
    14Auxerre31022:4-23
    15Lorient31025:8-33
    16Paris FC31025:8-33
    17Brest30124:8-41
    18Metz30032:7-50

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