Result
2:3
14/09/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7
- Referee: Miranda E. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | AYM Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 13', 1 - 0, Rivera E. ⚽, Fierro C. (A),
- 16', Vazquez S. 🟨,
- 29', Garcia G. 🟨,
- 30', 1 - 1, Millan O. ⚽, Alaffita Garcia E. J. (A),
- 37', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
- 45+1', Estrada J. 🟨,
- 45+2', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
- 45+4', 1 - 2, Alvarez D. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Lopez R. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
- 46', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
- 54', Bass A. ↓, Del Aguila Y. ↑,
- 54', Millan O. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
- 64', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
- 66', Alvarez D. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
- 66', Zurita Jimenez U. ↓, Yanez J. ↑,
- 70', 2 - 2, Rivera E. (Pen),
- 78', Torres U. 🟨,
- 79', 2 - 3, Jaimes U. (Pen),
- 83', Illescas F. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
- 84', Rivera E. 🟨,
- 85', Valenzuela M. ↓, Madrigal K. ↑,
- 85', Rivera E. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
- 90+10', Gutierrez L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Leones Negros UdeG
58.2% | Draw
21.9% | Atlético La Paz
19.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-3%)
Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.57 ↑
(1.5) |
4.19 ↓
(4.49) |
4.61 ↓
(5.27) |
9.2%
(8.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 2.
- Leones Negros UdeG is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- In recent matches, Atlético La Paz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Atlético La Paz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Leones Negros UdeG is a strong favorite.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.9:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 2.8:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Leones Negros UdeG won against Atlético La Paz?
Leones Negros UdeG has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético La Paz won against Leones Negros UdeG?
Atlético La Paz has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz were as follows:
28.03.2025
Atlético La Paz
-
Leones Negros UdeG
3:1
13.10.2024
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético La Paz
3:0
05.05.2024
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético La Paz
3:1
02.05.2024
Atlético La Paz
-
Leones Negros UdeG
1:1
27.03.2024
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético La Paz
2:4
Latest results of Leones Negros UdeG
Latest results of Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cancun | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Tampico Madero | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12:4 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Atl. Morelia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:10 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Irapuato | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Atlante | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Leones Negros | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:11 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Zacatecas Mineros | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:7 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Atletico La Paz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11:11 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Tlaxcala | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:12 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Venados | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12:18 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Correcaminos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3:13 | -10 | 3 |
| 15 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8:16 | -8 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
