Celaya vs Leones Negros UdeG – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG
Result
2:3
12/04/2025 at 21:06 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 14
  • Referee: Peinaldo Aguirre Y. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, FOX Sports 2, Fox Sports, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes
venezuelaVenezuelaInter

Match Stats

Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
810
Shots on target
36
Corner Kicks
61
Yellow Cards
43
Red Cards
10
Total shots
810
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
54
Corner Kicks
61
Goalkeeper Saves
31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 13', Manriquez S. 🟨,
  • 13', Fierro C. 🟨,
  • 16', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
  • 25', 0 - 1, Organista A. ,
  • 40', Garcia J. 🟨,
  • 43', 0 - 2, Fierro C. ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 49', 1 - 2, Monreal E. ,
  • 53', Marchand J. 🟨,
  • 58', 2 - 2, Baltazar C. ,
  • 59', Cervantes D. 🟨,
  • 62', Garcia J. 🟨,
  • 66', Dominguez A. , Del Angel E. ,
  • 66', Gamboa J. , Tejeda D. ,
  • 71', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. , Flores L. ,
  • 71', Marchand J. , Munoz D. ,
  • 75', Manriquez S. , Hernandez P. ,
  • 76', 2 - 3, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ,
  • 83', de los Santos L. , Partida E. ,
  • 83', Cervantes D. , Sanchez A. ,
  • 88', Aguayo J. , Rabago F. ,
  • 88', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. , Sanchez J. ,
  • 90+1', Organista A. , Carreon A. ,

Chances of winning


Celaya
51.3%
Draw
26.1%
Leones Negros UdeG
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
56.9% 23.2% 19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8% 22.1% 18.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celaya's form might have worsened.
  • Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
  • Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.8
    (1.61)
    3.54
    (3.95)
    4.08
    (4.6)
    8.5%
    (9.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • Leones Negros UdeG is Qualified for Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Celaya won 2.
    • Celaya is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Recent matches Leones Negros UdeG is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Leones Negros UdeG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Celaya is a favorite.
    • Our prediction for today's Celaya to win the game is with odds 1.72.
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Celaya won 9 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 22:16 (average 1.1:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Celaya won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:3 (average 1.1:0.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG were as follows:
    27.10.2024 Leones Negros UdeG - Celaya 1:1
    14.03.2024 Leones Negros UdeG - Celaya 0:0
    02.11.2023 Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG 0:0
    05.05.2023 Celaya - Leones Negros UdeG 1:0
    02.05.2023 Leones Negros UdeG - Celaya 0:3
    Latest results of Celaya
    05.04.2025 Tlaxcala - Celaya 0:3
    22.03.2025 Cancún - Celaya 1:1
    15.03.2025 Jaiba Brava - Celaya 0:0
    08.03.2025 Celaya - Atlético Morelia 1:0
    Latest results of Leones Negros UdeG
    Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Irapuato11004:133
    2Tapatio11002:023
    3Tampico Madero11001:013
    4Cancun11001:013
    5Atlante10101:101
    6Atl. Morelia10101:101
    7Correcaminos10101:101
    8Tlaxcala10101:101
    9Zacatecas Mineros10101:101
    10Tepatitlan de Morelos10101:101
    11Alebrijes Oaxaca00000:000
    12Dorados de Sinaloa10010:1-10
    13Leones Negros10010:1-10
    14Atletico La Paz10010:2-20
    15Venados10011:4-30

          Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)