Result
1:1
14/05/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5
- Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 |
 Brazil | Paramount+ |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 1 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 South-america | ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.67 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (462/510) | 84% (376/445) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.67 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 0.13 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (462/510) | 84% (376/445) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (19/37) | 56% (25/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (78/104) | 63% (45/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (7/27) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.56 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 85% (11/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.13 | 0.85 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.87 | -0.15 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 16', Alisson 🟥,
- 39', Caballero H. 🟨,
- 45+2', Sanabria L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Ruan Tressoldi ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,
- 57', Sanabria L. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
- 57', Fretes A. ↓, Melgarejo L. ↑,
- 66', Oscar ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 66', Ferreira ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
- 67', Santa C. R. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
- 67', Fernandez M. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
- 74', 0 - 1, Aguilar G. ⚽, Ramirez I. (A),
- 77', Soares C. ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 85', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 90', 1 - 1, Lucca Marques ⚽, Pablo Maia (A),
- 90+2', Lucca Marques 🟨,
- 90+4', Campuzano A. ↓, Cardozo Lucena A. ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
57.9% | Draw
27.2% | Libertad Asuncion
15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.63 ↑
(1.58) |
3.51 ↓
(3.58) |
6.23 ↓
(6.86) |
5.7%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Libertad has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Inactive)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
- There will not play in Libertad: Cardozo Lucena A.
(Inactive)
Gimenez N.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Wendell
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, São Paulo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Libertad Asuncion?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Asuncion won against São Paulo?
Libertad Asuncion has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion were as follows:
23.04.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
São Paulo
0:2
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Libertad Asuncion
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | 0 : 0, 0 : 4 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | 0 : 0, 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | 2 : 0, 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Penarol | Racing Club | 1 : 3, 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Sao Paulo | LDU Quito | 0 : 1, 0 : 2 |
| 2 | River Plate | Palmeiras | 1 : 3, 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 1, 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | Racing Club | 0 : 1, 0 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | LDU Quito | Palmeiras | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Racing Club | 1 : 0 |
Final
