Result
2:2
25/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 22
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (318/391) | 77% (244/317) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 0.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (318/391) | 77% (244/317) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (28/62) | 41% (23/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (48/79) | 66% (75/113) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 1.30 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 70% (14/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.54 | 1.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.46 | -0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 27', 1 - 0, Reasco D. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
- 37', 1 - 1, Zambrano I. ⚽, Arboleda C. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', 1 - 2, Arboleda C. ⚽, Caicedo E. (A),
- 56', Carabali F. ↓, Cabezas Briones R. A. ↑,
- 56', Cela A. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
- 67', Rivera B. ↓, Mejia Moreira J. D. ↑,
- 74', Ayovi W. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
- 78', 2 - 2, Reasco D. ⚽, Chala J. (A),
- 84', Chala J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 84', Borja J. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
- 87', Arboleda C. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
- 87', Caicedo E. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
Chances of winning
El Nacional
32.9% | Draw
28.4% | Libertad Loja
38.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Loja's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+22.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-19%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
El Nacional - Libertad Loja Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.79 ↑
(1.76) |
3.3 ↓
(3.49) |
2.44 ↓
(4.46) |
7.1%
(8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for El Nacional - Libertad Loja?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
El Nacional will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4.
- El Nacional has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Libertad is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- El Nacional will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 3:2).
How many head-to-head matches has El Nacional won against Libertad Loja?
El Nacional has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against El Nacional?
Libertad Loja has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Libertad Loja were as follows:
04.04.2025
Libertad Loja
-
El Nacional
1:3
10.11.2024
El Nacional
-
Libertad Loja
1:4
18.05.2024
Libertad Loja
-
El Nacional
0:2
25.09.2023
Libertad Loja
-
El Nacional
0:1
23.04.2023
El Nacional
-
Libertad Loja
4:2
Latest results of El Nacional
Latest results of Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 45:20 | 25 | 53 |
| 2 | LDU Quito | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 41:24 | 17 | 44 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37:29 | 8 | 44 |
| 4 | Libertad | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:34 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 30:25 | 5 | 39 |
| 6 | Aucas | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:37 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Orense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 27:29 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | U. Catolica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 46:33 | 13 | 36 |
| 9 | Emelec | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 24:28 | -4 | 35 |
| 10 | EL Nacional | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30:35 | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | Delfin | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 24:37 | -13 | 28 |
| 12 | Macara | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 23:26 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 | Manta | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 31:42 | -11 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24:35 | -11 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 29:36 | -7 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 27:43 | -16 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
