Liverpool vs Newcastle United: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Cup
Soccer English League Cup Liverpool - Newcastle United
16/03/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ENGLAND: EFL Cup - Final
  • Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)
Liverpool - Newcastle United - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.891.84
Ball Possession
66%34%
Goal Attempts
817
Shots on Goal
36
Shots off Goal
38
Blocked Shots
23
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
49
Shots inside the Box
711
Shots outside the Box
06
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Goalkeeper Saves
42
Free Kicks
1014
Offsides
22
Fouls
1410
Yellow Cards
12
Throw-ins
2121
Touches in the Opposition Box
1726
Passes
80% (359/450)63% (143/227)
Passes in the final third
73% (101/138)54% (51/95)
Crosses
16% (3/19)35% (6/17)
Tackles
86% (12/14)65% (11/17)
Clearances Total
2737
Interceptions
37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 45', 0 - 1, Burn D. ⚽, Trippier K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 52', 0 - 2, Isak A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
  • 57', Diogo Jota ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
  • 57', Konate I. ↓, Jones C. ↑,
  • 67', Mac Allister A. ↓, Gakpo C. ↑,
  • 74', Gravenberch R. ↓, Chiesa F. ↑,
  • 74', Diaz L. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
  • 81', Isak A. ↓, Wilson C. ↑,
  • 81', Barnes H. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
  • 90', Pope N. 🟨,
  • 90', Murphy J. ↓, Krafth E. ↑,
  • 90+4', 1 - 2, Chiesa F. ⚽, Elliott H. (A),
  • 90+8', Chiesa F. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Tonali S. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Liverpool
53.2%		Draw
24.6%		Newcastle United
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.4% 21.1% 16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6% 20.1% 15.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Liverpool's form might have worsened.
  • Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+12.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Liverpool, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Liverpool - Newcastle United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.8 ↑
    (1.53)    		 3.92 ↓
    (4.53)    		 4.41 ↓
    (5.76)    		 3.7%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Liverpool - Newcastle United?
  • Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 29 - 82.9%). Newcastle will win (votes: 4 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 70.4% – 95.4%.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Liverpool won 4.
    • Liverpool is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Recent matches Newcastle is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Liverpool could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Liverpool is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold T. (Ankle Injury) Bradley C. (Thigh Injury) Gomez J. (Hamstring Injury) Morton T. (Shoulder Injury)
    • There will not play in Newcastle: Botman S. (Knee Injury) Gordon A. (Red Card) Hall L. (Foot Injury) Lascelles J. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Liverpool: Konate I. (Injury)
    • Our prediction for today's Liverpool to win the game is with odds 1.72.
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Liverpool won 13 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 40:19 (average 2:1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Liverpool won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 25:8 (average 2.5:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Liverpool - Newcastle United were as follows:
    26.02.2025 Liverpool - Newcastle United 2:0
    04.12.2024 Newcastle United - Liverpool 3:3
    01.01.2024 Liverpool - Newcastle United 4:2
    27.08.2023 Newcastle United - Liverpool 1:2
    18.02.2023 Newcastle United - Liverpool 0:2
    Latest results of Liverpool
    11.03.2025 Liverpool - Paris Saint-Germain 0:2 ✺
    08.03.2025 Liverpool - Southampton 3:1 ✺
    05.03.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Liverpool 0:1 ✺
    26.02.2025 Liverpool - Newcastle United 2:0 ✺
    23.02.2025 Manchester City - Liverpool 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of Newcastle United
    10.03.2025 West Ham United - Newcastle United 0:1 ✺
    02.03.2025 Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion 1:2 ✺
    26.02.2025 Liverpool - Newcastle United 2:0 ✺
    23.02.2025 Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest 4:3 ✺
    15.02.2025 Manchester City - Newcastle United 4:0 ✺
    Draw
    2024/25

    1/64-finals
    1LincolnHarrogate1 : 2
    2PrestonSunderland2 : 0
    3CharltonBirmingham0 : 1
    4ByeFulham
    5ArsenalBye
    7ShrewsburyNotts Co4 : 3
    8BoltonMansfield2 : 1
    9SwanseaGillingham3 : 1
    10NorthamptonWycombe0 : 2
    12ByeAston Villa
    13Cambridge UtdQPR1 : 2
    14ByeLuton
    15Crystal PalaceBye
    16NorwichStevenage4 : 3
    17BromleyAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
    18ByeIpswich
    19NottinghamBye
    20ByeNewcastle
    21ChelseaBye
    23BarrowPort Vale3 : 2
    24DerbyChesterfield2 : 1
    25ColchesterReading3 : 2
    26ByeBrentford
    27PortsmouthMillwall0 : 1
    28Leyton OrientNewport4 : 1
    29Stockport CountyBlackburn1 : 6
    30BurtonBlackpool0 : 4
    31GrimsbyBradford City2 : 1
    32HullSheffield Wed1 : 2
    33Bristol CityCoventry0 : 1
    34Oxford UtdPeterborough2 : 0
    36ByeTottenham
    37Manchester CityBye
    39WatfordMK Dons5 : 0
    40PlymouthCheltenham3 : 0
    41Manchester UtdBye
    43WiganBarnsley1 : 2
    44Sheffield UtdWrexham4 : 2
    45WalsallExeter2 : 1
    46HuddersfieldMorecambe3 : 0
    47LeicesterBye
    48TranmereAccrington3 : 0
    49EvertonBye
    50SalfordDoncaster0 : 2
    51CardiffBristol Rovers2 : 0
    52ByeSouthampton
    53LeedsMiddlesbrough0 : 3
    54CarlisleStoke0 : 2
    55FleetwoodWest Brom2 : 1
    56RotherhamCrewe2 : 1
    57BrightonBye
    58CrawleySwindon4 : 2
    59WolvesBye
    60ByeBurnley
    61LiverpoolBye
    63West HamBye
    64ByeBournemouth

    1/32-finals
    1HarrogatePreston0 : 5
    2BirminghamFulham0 : 2
    3ArsenalBye
    4ShrewsburyBolton0 : 2
    5SwanseaWycombe0 : 1
    6ByeAston Villa
    7QPRLuton2 : 1
    8Crystal PalaceNorwich4 : 0
    9AFC WimbledonIpswich3 : 2
    10NottinghamNewcastle1 : 2
    11ChelseaBye
    12BarrowDerby1 : 0
    13ColchesterBrentford0 : 1
    14MillwallLeyton Orient0 : 1
    15BlackburnBlackpool1 : 2
    16GrimsbySheffield Wed1 : 5
    17CoventryOxford Utd1 : 0
    18ByeTottenham
    19Manchester CityBye
    20WatfordPlymouth2 : 0
    21Manchester UtdBye
    22BarnsleySheffield Utd1 : 0
    23WalsallHuddersfield3 : 2
    24LeicesterTranmere4 : 0
    25EvertonDoncaster3 : 0
    26CardiffSouthampton3 : 5
    27MiddlesbroughStoke0 : 5
    28FleetwoodRotherham2 : 1
    29BrightonCrawley4 : 0
    30WolvesBurnley2 : 0
    31LiverpoolBye
    32West HamBournemouth1 : 0

    1/16-finals
    1PrestonFulham2 : 1
    2ArsenalBolton5 : 1
    3WycombeAston Villa1 : 2
    4QPRCrystal Palace1 : 2
    5AFC WimbledonNewcastle0 : 1
    6ChelseaBarrow5 : 0
    7BrentfordLeyton Orient3 : 1
    8BlackpoolSheffield Wed0 : 1
    9CoventryTottenham1 : 2
    10Manchester CityWatford2 : 1
    11Manchester UtdBarnsley7 : 0
    12WalsallLeicester0 : 1
    13EvertonSouthampton1 : 2
    14StokeFleetwood2 : 1
    15BrightonWolves3 : 2
    16LiverpoolWest Ham5 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1PrestonArsenal0 : 3
    2Aston VillaCrystal Palace1 : 2
    3NewcastleChelsea2 : 0
    4BrentfordSheffield Wed2 : 1
    5TottenhamManchester City2 : 1
    6Manchester UtdLeicester5 : 2
    7SouthamptonStoke3 : 2
    8BrightonLiverpool2 : 3

    Quarter-finals
    1ArsenalCrystal Palace3 : 2
    2NewcastleBrentford3 : 1
    3TottenhamManchester Utd4 : 3
    4SouthamptonLiverpool1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1ArsenalNewcastle0 : 2, 0 : 2
    2TottenhamLiverpool0 : 4, 1 : 0

    Final
    1NewcastleLiverpool2 : 1
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