Alex De Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/04/2025 at 16:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Match Stats


Aces
1	3
Double Faults
1	1
1st Serve Percentage
60%	69%
1st Serve Points Won
71% (25/35)	79% (26/33)
2nd Serve Points Won
39% (9/23)	73% (11/15)
Break Points Saved
70% (7/10)	0% (0/0)
1st Return Points Won
21% (7/33)	29% (10/35)
2nd Return Points Won
27% (4/15)	61% (14/23)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/0)	30% (3/10)
Winners
5	15
Unforced Errors
27	19
Net Points Won
60% (3/5)	100% (1/1)
Service Points Won
59% (34/58)	77% (37/48)
Return Points Won
23% (11/48)	41% (24/58)
Total Points Won
42% (45/106)	58% (61/106)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
67% (6/9)	100% (9/9)
Return Games Won
0% (0/9)	33% (3/9)
Total Games Won
33% (6/18)	67% (12/18)

Chances of winning

Alex De Minaur
56.2%

Lorenzo Musetti
43.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorenzo Musetti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.89)		2.17 ↑ (1.89)	5% (5.6%)

What is the prediction for Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti?

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 11 - 35.5%). Musetti will win (votes: 20 - 64.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 47.7% – 81.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lorenzo Musetti will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

De Minaur is ranked ATP: 7. Musetti is ranked ATP: 11.
Instantly two players are in a excellent shape.
De Minaur could have physical problems compared to their opponent - in recent days, they have played more matches than their opponents.
In this match, the chances to win of both players are almost equal.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, De Minaur won 1 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5 (average 1.7:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Alex De Minaur won against Lorenzo Musetti?

Alex De Minaur has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lorenzo Musetti won against Alex De Minaur?

Lorenzo Musetti has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti were as follows:

12.04.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur 2:1

18.06.2024 Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur 2:1

Latest results of Alex De Minaur

29.04.2025 Alex De Minaur - Denis Shapovalov 2:0 ✺

26.04.2025 Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Sonego 2:0 ✺

18.04.2025 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alex De Minaur 2:0 ✺

17.04.2025 Jacob Fearnley - Alex De Minaur 0:2 ✺

15.04.2025 Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Alex De Minaur 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Lorenzo Musetti

29.04.2025 Stefanos Tsitsipas - Lorenzo Musetti 0:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Lorenzo Musetti 0:2 ✺

14.04.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar Canceled ✺

13.04.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2 ✺

12.04.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Alex De Minaur 2:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bye
2	Bautista-Agut R.	Munar J.	2 : 1
3	Borges N.	Carreno-Busta P. (WC)	2 : 1
4	Bye	Davidovich Fokina A. (28)
5	Cerundolo F. (20)	Bye
6	Moutet C. (RET.)	Mayot H. (Q)	0 : 1
7	Comesana F.	Martinez P.	2 : 0
8	Bye	Fils A. (13)
9	Shelton B. (12)	Bye
10	Mpetshi Perricard G.	Navone M.	0 : 2
11	Lajovic D. (Q)	Quinn E. (Q)	0 : 2
12	Bye	Mensik J. (22)
13	Popyrin A. (25)	Bye
14	Michelsen A.	Bublik A.	0 : 2
15	Monfils G.	Gojo B. (Q)	2 : 1
16	Bye	Rublev A. (7)
17	Fritz T. (3)	Bye
18	O'Connell C.	Ugo Carabelli C.	2 : 0
19	Bonzi B.	Cilic M. (WC)	2 : 0
20	Bye	Hurkacz H. (27)
21	Korda S. (23)	Bye
22	Cina F. (WC)	Wong C. (WC)	2 : 0
23	Safiullin R.	Rinderknech A.	0 : 2
24	Bye	Ruud C. (14)
25	Medvedev D. (9)	Bye
26	Fognini F. (Q)	Djere L.	0 : 2
27	Cerundolo J. M. (Q)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
28	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (18)
29	Nakashima B. (31)	Bye
30	Ofner S. (PR)	Gaston H. (Q)	2 : 0
31	Marozsan F.	Cobolli F.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Rune H. (8)
33	Draper J. (5)	Bye
34	Griekspoor T.	Kopriva V. (Q)	2 : 0
35	Tien L.	Giron M.	1 : 2
36	Bye	Berrettini M. (30)
37	Khachanov K. (24)	Bye
38	Opelka R. (PR)	Hijikata R. (LL)	2 : 0
39	Fonseca J.	Moller E. (Q)	2 : 0
40	Bye	Paul T. (11)
41	Tiafoe F. (16)	Bye
42	Halys Q.	Darderi L.	0 : 2
43	Goffin D. (RET.)	Muller A.	1 : 1
44	Bye	Humbert U. (21)
45	Baez S. (32)	Bye
46	Dzumhur D.	Bellucci M.	2 : 1
47	Arnaldi M.	Coric B. (Q)	2 : 1
48	Bye	Djokovic N. (4)
49	De Minaur A. (6)	Bye
50	Sonego L.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 0
51	Vukic A.	Nishikori K.	1 : 2
52	Bye	Shapovalov D. (29)
53	Tsitsipas S. (17)	Bye
54	Van De Zandschulp B. (RET.) (LL)	Struff J-L.	1 : 1
55	Etcheverry T. M.	Medjedovic H.	2 : 1
56	Bye	Musetti L. (10)
57	Dimitrov G. (15)	Bye
58	Altmaier D. (Q)	Jarry N.	0 : 2
59	Bu Y.	Fearnley J. (Q)	0 : 2
60	Bye	Machac T. (19)
61	Lehecka J. (26)	Bye
62	Landaluce M. (WC)	Norrie C.	1 : 2
63	Bergs Z.	Diallo G. (LL)	0 : 2
64	Bye	Majchrzak K. (LL)

1/32-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bautista-Agut R.	2 : 0
2	Borges N.	Davidovich Fokina A. (28)	0 : 2
3	Cerundolo F. (20)	Mayot H.	2 : 0
4	Comesana F.	Fils A. (13)	2 : 0
5	Shelton B. (12)	Navone M.	2 : 1
6	Quinn E.	Mensik J. (22)	0 : 2
7	Popyrin A. (25)	Bublik A.	0 : 2
8	Monfils G.	Rublev A. (WO.) (7)
9	Fritz T. (3)	O'Connell C.	2 : 0
10	Bonzi B.	Hurkacz H. (27)	2 : 0
11	Korda S. (23)	Cina F.	2 : 1
12	Rinderknech A.	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
13	Medvedev D. (WO.) (9)	Djere L.
14	Cerundolo J. M.	Auger-Aliassime F. (18)	2 : 0
15	Nakashima B. (31)	Ofner S.	2 : 0
16	Cobolli F.	Rune H. (RET.) (8)	1 : 0
17	Draper J. (5)	Griekspoor T.	2 : 0
18	Giron M.	Berrettini M. (30)	1 : 2
19	Khachanov K. (24)	Opelka R.	2 : 0
20	Fonseca J.	Paul T. (11)	0 : 2
21	Tiafoe F. (16)	Darderi L. (RET.)	1 : 0
22	Muller A.	Humbert U. (21)	2 : 1
23	Baez S. (32)	Dzumhur D.	1 : 2
24	Arnaldi M.	Djokovic N. (4)	2 : 0
25	De Minaur A. (6)	Sonego L.	2 : 0
26	Nishikori K.	Shapovalov D. (29)	0 : 2
27	Tsitsipas S. (17)	Struff J-L.	2 : 1
28	Etcheverry T. M.	Musetti L. (10)	0 : 2
29	Dimitrov G. (15)	Jarry N.	2 : 0
30	Fearnley J.	Machac T. (19)	2 : 1
31	Lehecka J. (26)	Norrie C.	1 : 2
32	Diallo G. (LL)	Majchrzak K. (LL)	2 : 1

1/16-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Davidovich Fokina A. (28)	2 : 1
2	Cerundolo F. (20)	Comesana F.	2 : 0
3	Shelton B. (12)	Mensik J. (22)	0 : 2
4	Bublik A.	Rublev A. (7)	2 : 1
5	Fritz T. (3)	Bonzi B. (RET.)	1 : 1
6	Korda S. (23)	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
7	Medvedev D. (9)	Cerundolo J. M.	2 : 0
8	Nakashima B. (31)	Cobolli F.	2 : 0
9	Draper J. (5)	Berrettini M. (RET.) (30)	1 : 0
10	Khachanov K. (24)	Paul T. (11)	1 : 2
11	Tiafoe F. (16)	Muller A.	2 : 0
12	Dzumhur D.	Arnaldi M.	0 : 2
13	De Minaur A. (6)	Shapovalov D. (29)	2 : 0
14	Tsitsipas S. (17)	Musetti L. (10)	0 : 2
15	Dimitrov G. (15)	Fearnley J.	2 : 0
16	Norrie C.	Diallo G.	1 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Cerundolo F. (20)	0 : 2
2	Mensik J. (22)	Bublik A.	2 : 0
3	Fritz T. (3)	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
4	Medvedev D. (9)	Nakashima B. (31)	2 : 1
5	Draper J. (5)	Paul T. (11)	2 : 0
6	Tiafoe F. (16)	Arnaldi M.	0 : 2
7	De Minaur A. (6)	Musetti L. (10)	0 : 2
8	Dimitrov G. (15)	Diallo G.	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Cerundolo F. (20)	Mensik J. (22)	2 : 1
2	Ruud C. (14)	Medvedev D. (9)	2 : 0
3	Draper J. (5)	Arnaldi M.	2 : 0
4	Musetti L. (10)	Diallo G.	2 : 0

Semi-finals

1	Cerundolo F. (20)	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
2	Draper J. (5)	Musetti L. (10)	2 : 0

Final

1

Ruud C. (14)

Draper J. (5)

2 : 1