Luca Castagnola vs Lilian Marmousez – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ITF M25 Cattolica Men Luca Castagnola - Lilian Marmousez
Result
2:1
17/06/2025 at 04:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Cattolica, clay - 1/16-finals

Chances of winning


Luca Castagnola
27.8%
Lilian Marmousez
72.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.9% 66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1% 69.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Castagnola's form might have worsened.
  • Lilian Marmousez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lilian Marmousez's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lilian Marmousez than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
  • Luca Castagnola - Lilian Marmousez Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.35
    (2.75)

    1.29
    (1.41)
    7.5%
    (7.3%)
    Preview Facts
    • Castagnola is ranked ATP: 601. Marmousez is ranked ATP: 441.
    • Both players have been playing unpredictably.
    • Marmousez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Marmousez is the team to beat.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castagnola won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Luca Castagnola - Lilian Marmousez were as follows:
    11.06.2024 Luca Castagnola - Lilian Marmousez 1:2
    Latest results of Luca Castagnola
    Latest results of Lilian Marmousez
    Draw
    2025

    1/16-finals
    1Pennaforti G. (1)Rispoli N. (Q)2 : 0
    2Bilardo J.Mesaglio M. (Q)1 : 2
    3Rottoli L.Meduri A. (Q)2 : 1
    4Mazza M.Vincent Ruggeri S. (5)2 : 1
    5Picchione A. (3)Mecarelli M.2 : 0
    6Pampanin P. (Q)Miletich I.1 : 2
    7Vulpitta G. (Q)Catini N.1 : 2
    8Baroni N.Pecci A. (6)0 : 2
    9Oradini G. (8)Tabacco G. (Q)2 : 0
    10Mazzola F.Serafini M.0 : 2
    11Romano F.Sciahbasi L.2 : 0
    12Milev Y.Compagnucci T. (4)2 : 0
    13Lopez Montagud C. (7)Morolli A. (LL)2 : 0
    14D'Agostino S.Caniato C. A.0 : 2
    15Osti F. K. P. (Q)Primucci L. (Q)0 : 2
    16Castagnola L.Marmousez L. (2)2 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1Pennaforti G. (1)Mesaglio M.2 : 0
    2Rottoli L.Mazza M.0 : 2
    3Picchione A. (3)Miletich I.2 : 0
    4Catini N.Pecci A. (6)0 : 2
    5Oradini G. (8)Serafini M.2 : 1
    6Romano F.Milev Y.2 : 0
    7Lopez Montagud C. (7)Caniato C. A.0 : 2
    8Primucci L.Castagnola L.0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Pennaforti G. (1)Mazza M.0 : 2
    2Picchione A. (3)Pecci A. (6)0 : 2
    3Oradini G. (8)Romano F.2 : 0
    4Caniato C. A.Castagnola L.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Mazza M.Pecci A. (RET.) (6)1 : 1
    2Oradini G. (8)Caniato C. A.0 : 2

    Final
    1Mazza M.Caniato C. A.2 : 0