Luca Castagnola vs Ryan Colby – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:2
05/03/2026 at 04:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Heraklion, hard - 1/8-finals

Match Stats

Last 10 balls
33

Chances of winning


Luca Castagnola
47.4%
Ryan Colby
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.4% 55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3% 51.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
  • Ryan Colby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryan Colby than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
  • Luca Castagnola - Ryan Colby Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.96
    (2.08)

    1.77
    (1.66)
    7.7%
    (8.4%)
    Preview Facts
    • Castagnola is ranked ATP: 684. Colby is ranked ATP: 840.
    • Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Colby may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Luca Castagnola
    Latest results of Ryan Colby
    Draw
    2026

    1/16-finals
    1Berkieta T. (1)Filip J.2 : 0
    2Rejchtman Vinciguerra W.Jones M.2 : 1
    3Holban V.Kountourakis I.0 : 2
    4Alujas R.Sakellaridis D. (8)0 : 2
    5Ehrenschneider N. (3)Pietri B.0 : 2
    6Kuhar M.Hopp M.2 : 1
    7Cocola S.Huseinovic A.2 : 0
    8Stidell F.Staeheli L. (6)0 : 2
    9Castagnola L. (7)Delicata L.2 : 0
    10Jones A.Colby R.0 : 2
    11Almazan Valiente I.Freire Da Silva A.2 : 0
    12Geladaris O.Siniakov D. (4)0 : 2
    13Iannaccone F. (5)Kosinski F.2 : 0
    14Sciahbasi M.Dal Zilio B.2 : 0
    15Sesko Z.Paardekooper S.0 : 2
    16Angelini L.Paroulek T. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Berkieta T. (1)Rejchtman Vinciguerra W.2 : 1
    2Kountourakis I.Sakellaridis D. (8)0 : 2
    3Pietri B.Kuhar M.0 : 2
    4Cocola S. (RET.)Staeheli L. (6)0 : 1
    5Castagnola L. (7)Colby R.1 : 2
    6Almazan Valiente I.Siniakov D. (4)0 : 2
    7Iannaccone F. (5)Sciahbasi M.2 : 1
    8Paardekooper S.Angelini L.0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Berkieta T. (1)Sakellaridis D. (8)2 : 1
    2Kuhar M.Staeheli L. (6)2 : 1
    3Colby R.Siniakov D. (4)2 : 1
    4Iannaccone F. (5)Angelini L.0 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Berkieta T. (1)Kuhar M.2 : 1
    2Colby R.Angelini L.0 : 2

    Final
    1Berkieta T. (1)Angelini L.0 : 2