Result
1:3
07/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 29
- Referee: Kanagasingam A. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.91 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (469/552) | 75% (235/313) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 1.81 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (469/552) | 75% (235/313) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (37/66) | 49% (30/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (82/110) | 66% (73/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (5/19) | 44% (4/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 1.24 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.81 | 0.72 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.19 | -0.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 44', 0 - 1, Vasovic A. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Behrens K. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 1, Delcroix H. ⚽, Koutsias G. (A),
- 61', Cimignani Y. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
- 63', 1 - 2, Kabwit O. ⚽, Di Giusto M. (A),
- 66', Freimann B. 🟨,
- 68', Owusu T. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
- 77', Grbic A. ↓, Villiger L. ↑,
- 78', Bislimi U. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
- 78', Freimann B. ↓, Knezevic S. ↑,
- 78', Delcroix H. ↓, Marques M. ↑,
- 84', Kabwit O. ↓, Ottiger S. ↑,
- 85', Villiger L. 🟨,
- 88', Bajrami A. 🟨,
- 90', Grgic A. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,
- 90+3', Pihlstrom E. 🟨,
- 90+4', 1 - 3, Di Giusto M. ⚽, Bajrami A. (A),
Chances of winning
Lugano
45.1% | Draw
26% | Luzern
28.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugano's form might have worsened.Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luzern's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+11.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-8.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luzern, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lugano - Luzern Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.08 ↑
(1.73) |
3.6 ↓
(3.8) |
3.24 ↓
(4.22) |
6.8%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Lugano - Luzern?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Luzern will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Luzern (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 50%). Luzern (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).
- Lugano is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 5.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Lugano might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Lugano: Cassano C.
(Inactive)
Dos Santos D.
(Yellow Cards)
Marques M.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Luzern: Silva Ferreira L. M.
(Red Card)
Spadanuda K.
(Injury)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 42:28. (average 2.1:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 1.8:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Luzern?
Lugano has won 7 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Luzern won against Lugano?
Luzern has won 3 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lugano - Luzern were as follows:
17.01.2026
Luzern
-
Lugano
2:5
30.10.2025
Lugano
-
Luzern
2:0
04.05.2025
Luzern
-
Lugano
0:2
15.02.2025
Lugano
-
Luzern
2:0
07.12.2024
Luzern
-
Lugano
1:4
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 71:33 | 38 | 71 |
| 2 | St. Gallen ✔ | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59:36 | 23 | 55 |
| 3 | Lugano ✔ | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 47:37 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Basel ✔ | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 45:39 | 6 | 49 |
| 5 | Sion | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 43:34 | 9 | 45 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 60:55 | 5 | 45 |
| 7 | Luzern | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 58:56 | 2 | 36 |
| 8 | Lausanne | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 45:49 | -4 | 36 |
| 9 | Servette ✔ | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 48:56 | -8 | 33 |
| 10 | Zurich ✔ | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 42:59 | -17 | 31 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers ✔ | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 24 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 34:80 | -46 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
St. Gallen is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Lugano is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Basel is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Servette is Super League (Relegation Group )
Zurich is Super League (Relegation Group )
Grasshoppers is Super League (Relegation Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
