Result
2:5
17/01/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 20
- Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Croatia | SportKlub 5 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 3 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 1.51 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (330/385) | 86% (412/478) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 1.51 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 3.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (330/385) | 86% (412/478) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (24/41) | 56% (33/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (64/90) | 79% (92/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (3/20) | 32% (6/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 1.62 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 83% (5/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 30 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.05 | 0.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.95 | -1.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 25', 1 - 0, Di Giusto M. ⚽, Owusu T. (A),
- 41', 1 - 1, Bislimi U. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
- 45', 1 - 2, Bislimi U. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
- 45+1', 1 - 3, Behrens K. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Dantas R. ↓, Ciganiks A. ↑,
- 46', Ottiger S. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
- 47', Dos Santos D. 🟨,
- 52', Dos Santos D. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 4, Bislimi U. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
- 60', Spadanuda K. ↓, Silva Ferreira L. M. ↑,
- 61', 1 - 5, Behrens K. ⚽, Marques M. (A),
- 65', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
- 71', Von Moos J. ↓, Grbic A. ↑,
- 71', 2 - 5, Freimann B. ⚽,
- 77', Cimignani Y. ↓, Kelvin D. ↑,
- 77', Marques M. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
- 77', Villiger L. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
- 85', Steffen R. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,
- 85', Bislimi U. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
Chances of winning
Luzern
34.2% | Draw
28.6% | Lugano
37.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Luzern - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.73 ↑
(2.69) |
3.26 ↓
(3.42) |
2.51 ↑
(2.41) |
7.2%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Luzern - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Luzern will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Lugano will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luzern: 9.6% – 70.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 1.
- Recent form of Luzern has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lugano has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Luzern has had a series of away games.
- Recently, Lugano has had a series of home games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Luzern: Abe T.
(Yellow Cards)
Lofgren J.
(Hernia)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
- There will not play in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Foot Injury)
Bottani M.
(Tendon Injury)
von Ballmoos D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Luzern won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 29:39. (average 1.5:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luzern won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.6:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Luzern won against Lugano?
Luzern has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Luzern?
Lugano has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luzern - Lugano were as follows:
30.10.2025
Lugano
-
Luzern
2:0
04.05.2025
Luzern
-
Lugano
0:2
15.02.2025
Lugano
-
Luzern
2:0
07.12.2024
Luzern
-
Lugano
1:4
11.08.2024
Lugano
-
Luzern
2:3
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun | 22 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 48:26 | 22 | 49 |
| 2 | Lugano | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 38:27 | 11 | 40 |
| 3 | St. Gallen | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 38 |
| 4 | Basel | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34:26 | 8 | 36 |
| 5 | Sion | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 34:28 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 43:45 | -2 | 32 |
| 7 | Lausanne | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 33:31 | 2 | 28 |
| 8 | Servette | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 38:43 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Zurich | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 32:43 | -11 | 25 |
| 10 | Luzern | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 40:43 | -3 | 23 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 29:40 | -11 | 19 |
| 12 | Winterthur | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 26:57 | -31 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
