Result
1:0
04/04/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 32
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1 |
 Ukraine | Sport 2 |
 World | Sport 2 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.55 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (351/446) | 73% (231/317) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.55 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.93 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (351/446) | 73% (231/317) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (36/68) | 44% (24/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (72/98) | 53% (62/116) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (1/8) | 16% (3/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 7 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.93 | 1.32 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.93 | 0.32 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 5', Montolio G. 🟨,
- 42', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 56', Cimignani Y. 🟨,
- 59', 1 - 0, Dos Santos D. ⚽, Steffen R. (A),
- 64', Heule M. 🟨,
- 67', Labeau B. ↓, Matoshi V. ↑,
- 67', Imeri K. ↓, Reichmuth N. ↑,
- 67', Meichtry F. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
- 71', Cimignani Y. ↓, Marques M. ↑,
- 79', Bertone L. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
- 84', Steffen R. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
- 84', Dos Santos D. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
- 84', Zanotti M. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
- 86', Kait M. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑,
- 90', Koutsias G. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
- 90+3', Steffen N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lugano
36.6% | Draw
26% | Thun
37.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
Lugano - Thun Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.57 ↓
(2.69) |
3.6 ↓
(3.61) |
2.51 ↑
(2.34) |
6.7%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lugano - Thun?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Lugano will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Thun will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- Lugano is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
- Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 2.
- In recent matches, Lugano has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Thun is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Thun may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Lugano: Behrens K.
(Hamstring Injury)
Cassano C.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Thun: Burki M.
(Inactive)
Ibayi C.
(Yellow Cards)
Ziswiler N.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Calf Injury)
- There are questionable in Thun: Matoshi V.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:32. (average 1.7:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.5:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Thun?
Lugano has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Lugano?
Thun has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lugano - Thun were as follows:
22.11.2025
Thun
-
Lugano
0:1
27.07.2025
Lugano
-
Thun
1:2
11.07.2025
Lugano
-
Thun
2:4
Swiss Super League Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 32 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 72:36 | 36 | 71 |
| 2 | St. Gallen ✔ | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 62:38 | 24 | 59 |
| 3 | Lugano ✔ | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 49:38 | 11 | 54 |
| 4 | Basel ✔ | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 50:42 | 8 | 53 |
| 5 | Sion ✔ | 32 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 48:35 | 13 | 49 |
| 6 | Young Boys ✔ | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 64:59 | 5 | 47 |
| 7 | Luzern ✔ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 62:59 | 3 | 39 |
| 8 | Servette ✔ | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 56:56 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Lausanne ✔ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 47:54 | -7 | 39 |
| 10 | Zurich ✔ | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 45:62 | -17 | 34 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers ✔ | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38:65 | -27 | 24 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 35:84 | -49 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
St. Gallen is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Lugano is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Basel is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Sion is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Young Boys is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Luzern is Super League (Relegation Group )
Servette is Super League (Relegation Group )
Lausanne is Super League (Relegation Group )
Zurich is Super League (Relegation Group )
Grasshoppers is Super League (Relegation Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
