Result
0:1
22/11/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 14
- Referee: Gianforte N. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Croatia | SportKlub |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 1.03 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (243/310) | 86% (393/457) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 1.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.20 | 0.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (243/310) | 86% (393/457) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (32/59) | 60% (30/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (79/112) | 82% (106/129) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (5/18) | 32% (8/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 1.38 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 81% (13/16) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.87 | 2.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.13 | 2.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 19', Roth J. 🟨,
- 22', Mahou H. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 63', Mahou H. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
- 68', Belhadj M. 🟨,
- 70', Ibayi C. ↓, Labeau B. ↑,
- 70', Roth J. ↓, Rupp N. ↑,
- 74', Bislimi U. 🟥,
- 75', Imeri K. ↓, Matoshi V. ↑,
- 79', Reichmuth N. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
- 79', Behrens K. ↓, Koutsias G. ↑,
- 79', Dos Santos D. ↓, Cassano C. ↑,
- 79', Cimignani Y. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
- 84', Burki M. 🟨,
- 86', 0 - 1, Cassano C. ⚽, Koutsias G. (A),
- 88', Dahler L. ↓, Stewart L. ↑,
- 90+1', Marques M. ↓, El Wafi A. ↑,
- 90+5', Saipi A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Thun
39% | Draw
26.3% | Lugano
34.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
Thun - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.4 ↑
(2.35) |
3.56 ↓
(3.58) |
2.75 ↓
(2.83) |
6.3%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Thun - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Lugano will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Thun: 39.2% – 89.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Thun will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 3.
- Thun is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Lugano is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Thun: Kait M.
(Foot Injury)
- There will not play in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Foot Injury)
Bottani M.
(Health problems)
Kendouci A.
(Broken Leg)
Steffen R.
(Ribs Injury)
von Ballmoos D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Kelvin D.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 34:34. (average 1.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:19. (average 1.9:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Lugano?
Thun has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Thun?
Lugano has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Thun - Lugano were as follows:
27.07.2025
Lugano
-
Thun
1:2
11.07.2025
Lugano
-
Thun
2:4
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 26 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 60:28 | 32 | 61 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 51:32 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Lugano | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 43:31 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Sion | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 39:30 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Basel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 39:34 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 52:52 | 0 | 36 |
| 7 | Luzern | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 52:49 | 3 | 33 |
| 8 | Zurich | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 39:50 | -11 | 31 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Servette | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 44:51 | -7 | 28 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 34:47 | -13 | 21 |
| 12 | Winterthur | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 29:75 | -46 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
